The Great Gerrymander War: California fires back at Texas power play

Politico

2 days ago

'I know the last thing Riverside County residents want is to eliminate the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission and replace it with insider Sacramento politicians gerrymandering district lines behind closed doors,' Calvert said in a statement.
When Newsom initially floated a California gerrymander to neutralize Texas, the reaction last month was a mix of enthusiasm and deep skepticism about the legal and political hurdles, given California's use of an independent redistricting commission.
But as it became clear that Texas Republicans were unlikely to back down, Newsom pressed the issue, making California the tip of the spear for a counteroffensive embraced by Democrats at all levels of the party.
Those dynamics make it likely the Democratic-dominated Legislature votes this month to put a new map on the ballot. While some expressed misgivings Sunday about a rushed process — to secure a November election, lawmakers will need to act quickly — several statehouse Democrats predicted they would muster the necessary two-thirds votes in each house.
'It's not a fight any of us want to be in, but we're in it, so we're going to fight,' said Assemblymember Buffy Wicks, a Democrat from Oakland.
'Nothing,' she added, 'unites the California Democratic caucus quite like Donald Trump.'
But getting Sacramento Democrats on board is one thing. Persuading California voters will be entirely different — particularly because they would be asked to return line-drawing power to politicians, letting the Legislature craft new lines until the commission takes over again in 2031 after the next census.
'Voters want to weigh in on redistricting because they don't trust politicians,' said Chris Lehman, a political consultant who has worked on redistricting ballot initiatives.
A survey conducted by Newsom pollster David Binder found that 52 percent of California voters would approve of state lawmakers redrawing its congressional district lines if Texas Republicans pulled off a similar gambit.
The measure becomes more popular if the fight becomes more overtly partisan; 60 percent of voters back 'rejecting Trump's power grab.' Roughly eight in 10 Democrats and six in 10 independents are in favor of the effort, according to a person who was briefed on the poll's findings.
The messages tested in the poll underscore how California Democrats will portray this as a fight they have no choice but to take on. The proposed ballot measure would be contingent on Texas' new districts being enacted.
'The polling shows that Californians overwhelmingly reject Trump's blatant power grab in Texas and want to fight back. The basic components of the program we are considering has strong support,' said Los Angeles-area Assemblymember Rick Chavez Zbur, another Democrat.
A successful ballot campaign would still require a titanic political effort. Assuming the Legislature acts, Newsom and allies will have just a few months to raise tens of millions of dollars and educate voters on a sudden, off-year election. Republican foes could be motivated to throw down. With little else on the ballot, that could yield an enormously expensive showdown.
'That'll be the big question mark,' said Brandon Castillo, a political consultant who specializes in ballot initiatives. 'Does that national money pour in, on both sides?'