Kentucky Derby odds: Favorites, sleeper picks, predictions for horse field

USA Today30-04-2025

Kentucky Derby odds: Favorites, sleeper picks, predictions for horse field
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Kentucky Derby 2025: Baffert's return, and Journalism is the horse to watch
Previewing the 151st Kentucky Derby, focusing on Journalism's chances and Bob Baffert's return.
The 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite hasn't changed since the draw was announced and race week began, but the odds are shifting as the first leg of horse racing's Triple Crown approaches.
Journalism still has the best chance to win the 151st running of the Race for the Roses on Saturday, according to the Kentucky Derby's latest odds at KentuckyDerby.com. But there are several contenders lurking close behind as worthy challengers now that the 20-horse field is sorting itself out among gamblers with post positions settled.
Render Judgment, which has ties to late country music star Toby Keith, and American Promise are among the horses that have seen their odds improve this week. There are also several sleeper picks to emerge due to the fluctuating odds, most notably Burnham Square. Predictions for this year's race vary.
Here are the latest odds, notable favorites and potential sleepers for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, as well as information on how to watch Saturday's race:
Kentucky Derby 2025 odds: Journalism leads favorites
Odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 30, according to KentuckyDerby.com.
BOB BAFFERT'S KENTUCKY DERBY RETURN: Why did decorated horse trainer serve 3-year suspension?
Kentucky Derby 2025 prediction: Sleeper picks
Ed De Rosa, Louisville Courier Journal: Chunk of Gold (36-1)
"Chunk of Gold changed tactics in the Louisiana Derby when jockey Jareth Loveberry sat a little closer to the pace. They won the battle — finishing ahead of all the front-runners — but lost the war to Tiztastic, who closed on the outside to get the top prize. Still, Chunk of Gold sold a dimension that day that could serve a purpose here."
Dan Wolken, USA TODAY: Luxor Cafe (15-1)
I'm going to take a bit of a different path here and pick Luxor Cafe. Watching his races from Japan, I think he is a super talent with a devastating turn of foot that many Derby winners have. Now, the quality of horses he was running against in Japan is a huge question. So is the transition to America all the external factors that come with shipping a horse halfway across the world. But Forever Young's performance last year showed that the quality of top Japanese horses is good enough now to win a Derby at some point. Maybe this year. I also expect Sovereignty to run a huge race, so that will probably be my exacta box.
Sloan Piva, Sporting News: Coal Battle (30-1)
"With five wins on dirt since last July and a strong third in the Arkansas Derby in late March, this horse has fierce acceleration out of the gate, impressive tactical versatility and awesome closing speed."
Jody Demling, CBS Sports: Burnham Square (23-1)
"Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. is one of the top riders at Churchill Downs and he used his intimate knowledge of the grounds to help pilot Mystik Dan to a masterful win in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. ... Burnham Square was bred to handle this distance and he's one of the most proven closers in the field with come-from-behind wins in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Blue Grass Stakes."
Kentucky Derby 2025: TV, streaming and where to watch
The 151st Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs is set for Saturday, May 3, 2025. The Kentucky Derby will be broadcast on NBC and USA Network. Streaming options will be available on Fubo (which offers a free trial) and Peacock.
Date: Saturday, May 3, 2025
Saturday, May 3, 2025 Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
6:45 p.m. ET TV: NBC, USA Network
NBC, USA Network Stream: Fubo, Peacock
Fubo, Peacock Location: Churchill Downs (Louisville, Kentucky)
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Victor Perez makes the first ace at the 2025 U.S. Open On Thursday, Patrick Reed's albatross dominated headlines as the best shot of the day. But France's Victor Perez has an early entry for shot of the day on Friday, and it's going to be tough to beat. Perez made a hole-in-one at the par-3 sixth during his second round at Oakmont, which was playing 192 yards. What's the weather at Oakmont? 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