Best NBA Win Total Over/Under Bets For 2025-26: Western Conference
After bolstering their supporting cast with deals for Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr., can the Nuggets win more than 53.5 regular-season games in 2025-26?
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With most of the top names on the move this summer having chosen where they'll spend the 2025-26 season, we're on the cusp of a quiet time of year for NBA fans.
But with win totals for each NBA team now available at multiple sportsbooks, now is a great time to take a stab at A) which teams we expect to exceed their expectations for the 2025-26 regular season and B) which ones might be at risk of going under their totals.
2025-26 NBA Western Conference Win Total Odds
Without further ado, below are the 2025-26 NBA regular season win totals at DraftKings and FanDuel for every team in the Western Conference.
DK FD Thunder 62.5 (o-110; u-110) 62.5 (o-122; u-110) Rockets 55.5 (o-110; u-110) 54.5 (o-128; u-102) Nuggets 53.5 (o-115; u-105) 53.5 (o-110; u-122) Timberwolves 50.5 (o-115; u-105) 50.5 (o-102; u-130) Lakers 47.5 (o-115; u-105) 48.5 (o-118; u-112) Warriors 47.5 (o-105; u-115) 46.5 (o-114; u-114) Clippers 46.5 (o-120; u+100) 47.5 (o-120; u-110) Spurs 43.5 (o-110; u-110) 43.5 (o-114; u-118) Grizzlies 40.5 (o-120; u+100) 40.5 (o-110; u-120) Mavericks 39.5 (o+100; u-120) 40.5 (o-122; u-108) Kings 36.5 (o-105; u-115) 36.5 (o-106; u-125) Blazers 33.5 (o-120; u+100) 32.5 (o-114; u-114) Pelicans 31.5 (o-110; u-110) 30.5 (o-114; u-114) Suns 30.5 (o-110; u-110) 32.5 (o-114; u-114) Jazz 18.5 (o-120; u+100) 17.5 (o-125; u-106)
Best 2025-26 Western Conference Win Total Bets
Below are our three favorite 2025-26 NBA Western Conference over/under win total bets.
Denver Nuggets Over 53.5 Wins (-110 at FD)
The Nuggets' offseason has gotten off to a strong start, even if the deal if for much-needed backup big man Jonas Valanciunas ends up falling through.
The situation with Valanciunas -- who has entertained playing for Greek club Panathinaikos instead of Denver, but is expected to confirm his Nuggets contract soon, according to veteran NBA reporter Marc Stein -- deserves its own piece. Assuming that deal gets finalized, though, he would fill a huge need as a quality backup behind Nikola Jokic.
What do we know is that Denver landed several quality complementary pieces in sharpshooting wing Cam Johnson (via a trade that sent away Michael Porter Jr.), veteran 2023 NBA champ Bruce Brown and proven shooter Tim Hardaway Jr.
Following those moves, it's not hard to see a step forward from this Nuggets team, which won 50 games in 2024-25 despite A) a short bench, B) a lack of quality 3-point shooting -- the Nuggets were 28th in the league in made 3s in the regular season and C) Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray missing a combined 46 games to injuries.
Remember, the Nuggets won at least 53 games in both 2022-23 (53-29) and 2023-24 (57-25), and the supporting cast around Jokic in 2025-26 could be the deepest, and best, it has ever been.
San Antonio Spurs Over 43.5 Wins (-110 at DK)
Is it just me, or do the Spurs have a great chance to blow past this number?
Obviously, there's a huge (7-foot-3, to be exact) if in San Antonio, but a healthy Victor Wembanyama could easily keep the Spurs in the thick of the Western Conference playoff picture.
San Antonio won 34 games in 2024-25 despite Wembanyama playing just 46 games. While it was just 23-29 after a loss to the Celtics on February 12 marked the final game of Year 2 for Wembanyama, this squad's upside is undeniable.
Keep in mind that Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox only shared the court for five games last year, with Fox playing in just 17 contests as a Spur after joining the team in February.
If the Spurs have Fox and Wembanyama together, that duo could combine with 6-foot-8 wings Jeremy Sochan and Harrison Barnes, 6-5 guard Devin Vassell and 6-6 PG Stephon Castle to form one of the biggest, most athletic lineups in the NBA.
With any health luck and steps forward from either 2024 Rookie of the Year Wemby and Castle, the 2025 ROY, the Spurs have a real chance to make the playoffs this season.
Speaking of which, the Spurs' odds to make the playoffs* (-135 at DK as of July 11) aren't exactly juicy, but they're certainly tempting, even as the West seemingly gets better every year.
*Note: these odds are "to make the playoffs after the play-in tournament"
Memphis Grizzlies Under 40.5 Wins (+100 at DK)
Though Memphis has won at least 48 regular-season games in three of the last four years, this team could suffer a significant step back in 2025-26.
The Grizzlies started 2024-25 strong. In fact, they were 36-18 entering the All-Star break in mid-February. But the last few months of the season were rough. Actually, that might be an understatement following a 12-16 post-All Star break finish that resulted in the late-season firing of head coach Taylor Jenkins.
With mercurial PG Ja Morant at a crossroads entering Year 7 on the heels of two up-and-down, largely disappointing seasons, the Grizzlies are as ripe for a letdown in 2025-26 as anyone in the Western Conference.
There's also no denying that Memphis will sorely miss Desmond Bane, who was arguably its best two-player over the last few years before being traded to the Magic in June.
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