The 'Halftime' Investment Committee weighs in on the Fed and how it impacts the rally's next move
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Yahoo
3 hours ago
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Gold Surges to $3350 as Tariffs and Weak Jobs Data Rattle Markets
Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future. Here's what you need to know: Gold spot prices surged to $3350/oz Friday after a weak Jobs Report and new tariffs triggered a market shock. Earlier in the week, gold briefly dipped below $3300/oz amid Fed uncertainty and profit-taking. The Fed held rates steady but hinted that future moves depend on inflation and tariff-driven risks. Volatility is expected to carry over into next week due to limited economic data and elevated uncertainty. So, What Kind of a Week Has it Been? Financial markets, both as a technical marketplace and as a mass of people, appeared to be riding the waves pretty smoothly for much of this week. Those waves being one of the highest profile weeks, from a macroeconomic data perspective, in some time, as well as the potential pivot-points of the July FOMC meeting and the enactment of another raft of Trump Tariffs against many of the US' foundational trading partners. Gold Slides Early, Then Spikes For gold specifically, trading in the first days of the week was frothy at times as traders positioned themselves for mid-week fireworks and made liquidations to lock in profits before closing the book of business for July. On net, the yellow metal slid slightly lower during these sessions but appeared to have healthy support and ultimately traded comfortably in a band between $3320-3330/oz in the spot market. Very early Wednesday morning, as managers and investors prepared for the FOMC announcement (and, to a lesser extent, the first-look at US GDP for Q2,) gold endured the sharpest sell-off of the week, breaking down support and taking spot below $3300 just before the US cash-market opened and continuing to slide to the weekly nadir at $3270/oz. FOMC Holds Steady, Market Digests The FOMC's July announcement was delivered largely as expected: No rate cut yet, to the chagrin of the US administration among others, and a refusal to directly suggest that a cut in September (to say nothing of the Jackson Hole summit this month) is anything more than a possibility while pointing to the potential inflationary effects of the US' Trump Tariff policy clicking into effect in August as the main reason for needing to 'wait and see.' Gold prices reacted with a moderate rebound, although any rally higher for the precious metal was going to be muted by headwinds following on from the Fed announcement (recall, much of gold's upward mobility in 2025 has been based on an expectation of lower rates.) When Asian markets opened for Thursday's trading, however, the chop-and-change as traders unwound pre-FOMC positions or otherwise locked in positions and/or profits ahead of both month-end and the eleventh hour before the US' threatened trade restrictions had an unexpected effect of pushing gold higher. The yellow metal peeked briefly back above $3300 before the start of US trading, and another US Dollar rally wound gold back to the neighborhood of $3290. Jobs Report Shock and Tariffs Ignite a Rally From here, it looked as if gold would end up closing the week at a moderate loss between Sunday evening's opening bids and Friday's close. But the double-whammy of a slew of the Trump Administration's punitive tariff rates going into effect as of August 1, combined with a very ugly July Jobs Report, has tripped markets into a powder keg. The resulting explosion in volatility has shot gold spot prices sharply higher. July's Non-Farm Payrolls data, expected to show +100K jobs added to the US economy, instead came in at a disappointing 73K while also making drastic downward revisions to the prior two months' reporting. This, as much as anything, has been the catalyst for gold's aggressive spike to end the week, quickly jumping $40/oz to $3340 minutes after the print before picking up another +$10/oz once US markets opened. The primary signals here were clear pluses for gold as an asset. On one hand, gold benefits from the inherent shock of instability and uncertainty the Jobs Report has flushed into markets (which has, at the same time, rocked equities lower.) On the other hand, the dominant read of this data is that it piles much stronger pressure on the Fed to begin easing conditions by cutting rates, another boon for gold. What's Next? This shock has been so acute and aggressive, and has come so close to the end of the week, that it is likely we will see momentum carry on when markets reopen on Sunday evening. If it can hold serve, we may see more risk-off rebalancing into gold positions as the calendar ahead is much, much lighter on consequential macro data. In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I'll see you back here next week for another market recap. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
