Varcoe: Alberta-led initiative to delve into complex cross-border relationship – from a Western Canadian vantage point

Calgary Herald

16-05-2025

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The initiative will hold a roundtable meeting Friday with researchers from both sides of the 49th parallel. Experts from Rice University, the University of Colorado, Arizona State University and the University of Nebraska will participate, along with Canadian researchers.
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'There is a realization we need something new, and there's a realization that is not coming out of Ottawa,' said Carlo Dade, director of international policy at the U of C's School of Public Policy.
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'Why not have it come out of the West? Why does work on North America have to be confined to capitals? Others across the continent deal with the impacts of these changes. Maybe we are in a better position to understand the new U.S., than folks who were so deeply, deeply grounded in the old way of thinking.'
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The importance of the Canada-U.S. relationship can't be overstated for this country's economy. Last year, about three-quarters of all Canadian exports headed to the United States, while 62 per cent of our imports came from our southern neighbour.
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Driven by increasing energy exports, Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. topped $102 billion.
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The north-south trade links run deep, and access to the massive U.S. markets has previously come at relatively low or no cost for many businesses.
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In Alberta, 89 per cent of the province's exports last year were destined for American customers, led by $134 billion of energy and minerals trade.
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More than $9 billion of food and agricultural products, and almost $5 billion of machinery, also moved south.
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'Alberta is the economic engine of this country in so many different ways, and we have never really had a dedicated effort in understanding what this relationship has been, what it is now, and what it could be in the future,' said Sawhney, who studied economics at the University of Calgary.
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'How can we be more prepared for any other shocks that might be heading our way.'
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The new initiative will conduct CUSMA analysis and modelling on the impact of tariffs, and work with municipalities to help them better prepare for the fallout of trade uncertainty.
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Dade said the research will involve students, and there's a realization that Canada needs to start training a new generation of experts on U.S. trade and the complex continental relationships.
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The group also wants to conduct polling and focus groups with U.S. partners.
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'Had (Canada) been prepared for tariffs, we would have done more economic modelling, we'd have systems in place to help the small businesses deal with the tariff shocks. We would have had all of this work done and ready to go,' Dade said.
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'It's coast to coast to coast in Canada — no one was really prepared for this, and we can't repeat that mistake going forward.'
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Following Mark Carney's meeting with Trump in the White House last week, the prime minister talked about Canada's willingness to start a broader discussion on the economic and security relationship between the countries.
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The two leaders will meet in June at the G7 summit in Kananaskis.
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Gitane De Silva, who served as Alberta's senior representative to the U.S. during Trump's first term, said the two countries needed to reset the relationship, which she believes began with Carney's trip to Washington.
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She said the pace at which Trump's administration is moving has caught people by surprise on both sides of the border.
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