Katie Porter is going to be California's next governor
For months, Harris has said she wasn't going to make a decision on her future until the end of the summer.
She didn't even get that far.
'In recent months, I have given serious thought to asking the people of California for the privilege to serve as their governor,' Harris said Wednesday. 'I love this state, its people, and its promise. It is my home. But after deep reflection, I've decided that I will not run for Governor in this election.'
Harris nodded toward another possible presidential run in 2028, but she's currently running second in the most recent Emerson College polling, behind Gov. Gavin Newsom, and only slightly ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. For now, Harris's career may veer toward lowkey pursuits. She's only 60, after all, and there's still time for her to step back into the political spotlight.
During the gubernatorial campaign that wasn't, Harris did pop her head up from time to time but, generally speaking, she wasn't out front on contentious issues like CEQA reform or homelessness, or really any of the other major priorities facing the state as we head into 2026.
Democratic insiders I spoke with say it was clear pretty early that there wasn't unbridled enthusiasm from the donor class to back Harris's candidacy. If there was palpable excitement, it came from the other side of the aisle. Trump operative and former Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell, for instance, said that if Harris were to be the nominee, he would run specifically to oppose her.
As Harris dragged her feet throughout the spring and summer, major candidates like former Rep. Katie Porter and former Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra bided their time, presumably content to defer to the former vice president if she decided to enter the race. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis explicitly said she wouldn't oppose her longtime friend, either.
But now that Harris has made it official that she's sitting 2026 out, the calculus has shifted again, and Porter has suddenly vaulted to the front of the back — with a few asterisks.
When the 2024 U.S. Senate race ramped up, Porter was in a strong position to win, but she faded as Rep. Adam Schiff secured Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi's early endorsement (and the attendant gaggle of San Francisco wealthy donors). Porter wound up scoring just 15.7% of the vote, while Schiff pulled 32% and former Rep. Barbara Lee notched 9.8%.
San Francisco's affluent donor class is going to have to make a quick buying decision soon, and it may well be that Porter will be the recipient of that support.
Many questions remain. Does Pelosi slam the door on Porter again? Does Porter continue to gravitate back toward the center as she already has by putting a major crypto player on her campaign committee, an early signal the money folks can rely on her?
It may be a bit tricky for Porter to maintain her populist street cred as she lines up financial backers, but she's still a compelling potential governor. A truly gifted speaker, as her legendary white board presentations attest, she has genuine charisma.
She also draws strength from her compelling personal story as a single mother. That bio and her delivery of it connects with voters, placing her in a solid second place to Harris in hypothetical polls. And with Harris no longer obscuring her path, Porter's name ID is comparatively high compared to the other possible candidates.
True, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, State School Superintendent Tony Thurmond, Kounalakis, and former Senate President Toni Atkins are solid performers, but they just haven't lit up the chattering class or a reliable donor base so far.
One longtime California political journalist told me a few months ago that he felt the buy-in to get a seat at the table for the governor's race was $50 million.
Most of these announced candidates are barely raising gas money.
Porter also generates excitement amongst young voters, and that simply cannot be said of the others — yet.
The lightly subterranean candidacy of Toni Atkins is the other growth stock in this race. Senate President Mike McGuire endorsed Atkins yesterday, and State Sen. Scott Wiener will also endorse Atkins shortly.
Wiener is in a solid position to succeed Pelosi in either 2026 (or 2028), and that means he's got a lot of influence.
But for the moment, this race is Porter's to lose, and she could lose it. But it's clear she's now at the top of the leaderboard, and the white board.
While money isn't everything, it's definitely something. Wealthy California gubernatorial candidates and self-funders like former American Airlines President Al Checchi and Harman-Kardon heir former Rep. Jane Harman learned that the hard way in 1998, when Checchi's $39 million and Harman's $19 million bought them nothing but a ticket home when then-Lt. Gov. Gray Davis won the Democratic primary.
Davis spent only $9 million.
Defeated L.A. mayoral candidate Rick Caruso (net worth : $5.3 billion), take note if you're thinking about getting to the race now. Plus, billionaires are so yesterday in Democratic politics now.
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