BIMB Securities: Malaysia's 2Q GDP likely below 4.5% estimate
In its gross domestic product (GDP) preview, BIMB said the moderation reflects softer private consumption and slower export growth amid persistent global headwinds.
Retail sales growth eased to 5% year-on-year – the weakest in six quarters – while export growth slowed to 3.5% from 4.4% in the previous quarter.
Manufacturing output growth softened to 3.9% from 4.2%, with the sector's PMI staying below the 50-point mark at 48.9 in 2Q.
Exports to China contracted by 4.4%, while growth to the US decelerated to 20.2% from 36.4% in 1Q.
BIMB said investment momentum remained solid but is likely to moderate given global uncertainties, including potential US tariffs of up to 100% on semiconductor imports and varying levies on other major economies.
Despite external risks, domestic demand is expected to provide some buffer, supported by government measures such as a one-off RM100 cash transfer to all Malaysian adults at end-August and the 25-basis-point cut in the overnight policy rate in July.
'While external uncertainties may weigh on the export-oriented sectors, domestic policy measures are expected to help sustain Malaysia's near-term growth momentum,' the research house said. — TMR
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