3 Economic Events That Could Affect Your Portfolio This Week, June 9-13, 2025
Confident Investing Starts Here:
The week began on a positive note, losing some steam in the second half. The weakness in PMI reports – with the manufacturing activity contracting for a third month in a row and services activity shrinking for the first time in 11 months – infused some gloom. However, Friday saw stocks find their footing again on solid job gains, which allayed fears about an imminent economic downturn.
U.S. jobs growth stayed strong in May, climbing 139,000 with unemployment unchanged at 4.2%. Although the March and April reports were revised downward, May's report reassured investors, as it reflected a very gradual cooling of the labor market. Still, diving into the job report's details, a stronger-than-expected wage growth continues to put a floor under inflation. This supports the Federal Reserve's 'wait and see' stance, despite President Trump's demands for a cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a June cut are nil, and July's rate decrease looks increasingly improbable. Prices in interest rate futures markets imply that investors expect two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end, with the first cut not expected until September.
Three Economic Events
Here are three key economic events that could affect your portfolio this week. For a full listing of additional economic reports, check out the TipRanks Economic Calendar.
» May's CPI and CPI ex. Food and Energy (Core CPI) – Wednesday, 06/11 – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the two key measures of inflation (the other being the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, or PCE). Policymakers, businesses, and consumers closely monitor the CPI report, as it reflects price trends across the economy, shapes consumer spending and business sentiment, and directly influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
» May's Producer Price Index (PPI) and PPI ex. Food and Energy – Thursday, 06/12 – This report reflects input costs for producers and manufacturers. Since the PPI measures the cost of producing consumer goods – which ultimately affects retail prices – it is viewed as a leading indicator of inflationary pressures. As such, it often foreshadows the following month's CPI and plays a critical role in shaping inflation expectations among policymakers.
» June's Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations (preliminary readings) – Friday, 06/13 – These reports summarize consumer confidence and long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. Consumer confidence impacts spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. GDP. The inflation expectations component is closely monitored by policymakers and is factored into the Federal Reserve's Index of Inflation Expectations.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Axios
18 minutes ago
- Axios
Trump: Canada backing Palestinian statehood makes any trade deal "very hard"
President Trump suggested early Thursday that he won't make a trade deal with Canada after Prime Minister Mark Carney said he intends to recognize the State of Palestine, subject to certain commitments. Why it matters: The threat comes one day before Trump's Aug. 1 deadline for countries to make a trade deal or face tariffs — in Canada's case, a 35% levy on goods imported from the neighboring North American country. What he's saying: "Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!" Context: Carney said Wednesday he would take the action at the UN General Assembly in September, subject to a set of commitments by the Palestinian Authority. Carney's joins two other close U.S. allies in taking the action, further isolating the Trump administration and Israel's government internationally, per Axios' Barak Ravid. France announced a similar plan and the U.K. said it would do the same unless Israel moves to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza and commits to a renewed peace process with the Palestinians.
UPI
19 minutes ago
- UPI
Trump, South Korea strike 15% tariff deal ahead of deadline
U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that negotiators struck a deal to impose a 15% tariff on South Korean goods. Photo by Yuri Gripas/UPI | License Photo SEOUL, July 31 (UPI) -- U.S. President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the United States will impose a 15% tariff on South Korean goods in what he called a "full and complete trade deal" between the two countries ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline for negotiations. The deal calls for $350 billion in South Korean investments "owned and controlled by the United States and selected by myself," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. Seoul will also purchase $100 billion of U.S. liquified natural gas and will announce further investments when South Korean President Lee Jae Myung visits Washington "within the next two weeks," Trump said. The arrangement comes just ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline for countries to make deals with Washington before facing higher "reciprocal" tariffs. South Korea was facing a 25% levy if it had not reached an agreement. "We have overcome a major hurdle," South Korean President Lee Jae Myung wrote on Facebook Thursday. "Through these negotiations, the government has eliminated uncertainty in the export environment and aligned U.S. tariffs with those of our major export competitors, creating an environment where we can compete on equal or superior terms with major countries." Lee said that $150 billion of the announced investment is earmarked for South Korean companies to enter the United States shipbuilding sector. Seoul had touted its world-class capacity as a key negotiating card, as the Trump administration is looking to revive the moribund American shipbuilding industry to counter China's massive naval growth. The 15% tariffs will apply to South Korea's automobile industry -- its largest export sector to the United States -- U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick wrote in a post on X. "[South Korea] will also not be treated any worse than any other country on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals," he added. The major South Korean exports of steel and aluminum will remain at the global rate of 50% that Trump has set, however. Seoul was able to hold off Washington's push to further open up its rice and beef markets to U.S. imports, which farmers' groups in South Korea strongly opposed. "In the course of the consultations with the United States, there was a strong demand for the opening up of our agricultural and livestock markets," Kim Yong-beom, the presidential chief of staff for policy, said at a press briefing Thursday. "However, given food security and the sensitivity of our agriculture, it was agreed that the domestic rice and beef markets would not be further opened," Kim said. While South Korea avoided higher tariffs with the new deal, it still represents a major increase over the existing U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, under which roughly 95% of goods were duty-free. "The 15% tariff by the United States is a different trading environment and challenge than in the past," Kim said. "The government will actively support our companies in enhancing their competitiveness and diversifying their export markets." The South Korean trade deal follows others the Trump administration has made in recent weeks, including 15% reciprocal tariffs on Japan and the European Union, 19% on the Philippines and Indonesia and 20% on Vietnam.
Business Insider
19 minutes ago
- Business Insider
Traders rushed to stockpile copper before Trump's tariffs. Now they're stuck with a lot of it.
Copper traders were caught off guard on Wednesday after refined copper was excluded from President Donald Trump's new tariffs, leaving them with large stockpiles and rapidly falling prices. On Wednesday, copper futures on New York's COMEX exchange plunged 20% in one day — the largest intraday drop since the contract began trading in 1988. The sell-off followed the Trump administration's decision to exempt refined copper from a sweeping 50% import tariff that takes effect August 1. Instead, the tariff will only apply to copper products like pipes, wires, and sheets — not to refined copper, the most widely imported form of the metal. The decision stunned traders who had spent months shipping refined copper into the US in anticipation of the tariff. Copper is a major industrial metal used in a wide range of applications and sectors, including construction and transportation. When Trump first suggested copper duties earlier this year, COMEX prices surged and traders rushed to import the metal before tariffs set in. "Prices have been rising this year largely because the market has been front-running the tariff policy and not because the demand picture has been improving or because the supply has actually been tightening," wrote Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at ING. Copper futures had been trading at a 28% premium on the US exchange compared to the London Metal Exchange — a spread that crashed overnight. Now, traders face a potentially massive inventory overhang. Copper stockpiles at COMEX-registered warehouses soared 170% to 253,431 short tons — the highest level in 21 years, per exchange data. By contrast, inventories at LME facilities have dropped roughly 50% this year, a sign of how much metal was diverted to the US. "There is now an excess inventory in the US, and that stockpile might now be re-exported," wrote Manthey. "This will be bearish for LME prices with more copper now showing up in LME warehouses," she added. Meanwhile, the White House has not ruled out future tariffs. It said the Commerce Department recommended a phased universal duty on refined copper: 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028. Trump ordered a market update by mid-2026 to determine whether to proceed.
