'We can win this': Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer confident of winning Kooyong as Teal MP admits race now 'too close to call' despite claiming victory
The Coalition is confident of winning back the seat of Kooyong, with Teal MP Monique admitting the seat is now 'too close to call' despite confidently claiming victory on Saturday night.
The Coalition is confident of regaining Josh Frydenberg's former seat of Kooyong with Teal MP Monique Ryan admitting the contest is now 'too close to call'.
Ms Ryan confidently declared victory in the former blue ribbon seat on Saturday night, appearing before cheering supporters with a sign stating 'Kooyong, we did it'
With just over 75 per cent of the vote counted, Ms Ryan is still leading by almost 1891 votes and a two-party-preferred margin of 51 to 49.
However the Teal MP has been forced to walk back her claim after the first round of postal votes broke heavily for Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer.
'The election result in Kooyong is too close to call at this point. It will take some days - possibly some weeks - for the outcome to be confirmed,' Ms Ryan said on Monday morning.
The Liberal candidate has also confidently declared the Coalition can win the seat.
In an email sent to supporters on Sunday night, Ms Hamer said that while there had been an average swing against the Coalition of 3 per cent, Kooyong had managed to buck the trend.
'It is now clear there will be a swing towards us in Kooyong. There are only a small handful of seats nationwide where this is the case,' Ms Hamer said.
The swing to the Liberal candidate is currently sitting at 1.75 per cent.
'It's not over yet. There are still 22,000 votes to be counted and we need just 943 extra votes to win,' the candidate said on Sunday.
'Most of the uncounted votes are postal votes. They are coming in very strongly in our favour. If these postal votes continue on their current TPP trajectory of 62-38 -we can win this seat.
'That is not blind hope, that's the raw numbers.' — Dr Monique Ryan MP (@Mon4Kooyong) May 4, 2025
As of Monday morning there have been 7,893 posted votes counted, which have gone in Ms Hamer's favour on a TPP margin of 62.5 to 37.5 per cent.
'The issue is, as is in a lot of these cases, is the postal vote and how strong it is coming in so far for Amelia Hamer,' Connell said.
'When it breaks this strongly (for one side)… you can get the next batch breaking not as favourably.
'Essentially, the first batches can be quite conservative in nature, go really well towards the Liberal Party, and then that rate can drop off quite a bit.
'So it's just one of those vagaries that we want to wait.'
Connell said that if Ms Hamer is only able to gain a very narrow lead of around 100 votes after postals, Ms Ryan could still end up on top due to absentee votes.
He said around half of the postal votes have now been counted.
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