SNGPL to slash supply to captives
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Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) has cautioned about a significant shakeup in Pakistan's energy landscape, projecting the suspension of 354 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of natural gas purchases from local exploration and production (E&P) companies amid surplus re-gasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) and a government-driven transition of captive power units to the national grid.
In its submission to the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra), the company has proposed a sharp 40-42% hike in gas tariffs from July 2025 to recover a projected revenue shortfall of Rs207 billion. The lower revenue stems from reduced sales to high-paying captive power consumers and the inclusion of a contested Rs96 billion in late payment surcharge.
According to an SNGPL petition submitted to Ogra titled "Determination of estimated revenue requirement 2025-26", a 40-42% hike in gas prices from July 2025 is aimed at covering the shortfall of Rs207 billion arising mainly due to revenue loss expected from the diversion of gas supplies from captives to domestic consumers owing to excess RLNG following the government's plans to shift captives to the grid and inclusion of Rs96 billion in late payment surcharge.
SNGPL now expects diversion of 242 mmcfd of RLNG to domestic consumers in FY26 compared to the 164 mmcfd approved by Ogra for FY25, said Topline Research Director Research Shankar Talreja.
"We estimate that an additional 78 mmcfd of RLNG diversion to domestic consumers will result in an incremental shortfall of Rs70 billion as the average price of Rs1,000/mmBtu (million British thermal units) for domestic consumers is lower than the captive rate of Rs3,500/mmBtu," he said.
SNGPL has incorporated Rs96 billion for FY26 on account of late payment surcharge as per regular practice into the estimated revenue requirement (ERR). However, Ogra generally turns down this demand.
Excluding this, the price hike requirement will halve to 19-20% from the proposed 40-42%. That said, Talreja believes, the proposed increase will not be entertained and it will be revised down.
Under the changing scenario, the public gas utility projects suspension of 354 mmcfd of natural gas purchases from local E&P companies. For FY25, it anticipated suspension of 86 mmcfd of purchases.
If natural gas buying from E&P companies is curtailed, this will also impact crude oil output due to their parallel production (called associated gas fields).
Any significant fall in oil and gas production will have a negative impact on Pakistan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth as mining and quarrying (oil, gas and coal) has a weight of 9%. "Furthermore, E&P companies' earnings will also be affected," Talreja said.
Owing mainly to a drop in the cost of debt (Karachi Inter-bank Offered Rate – Kibor), the required return for the company on the operating fixed assets is now projected at 23.39%.
SNGPL has proposed average fixed assets of Rs124 billion for FY26 compared to Rs109 billion allowed by Ogra in FY25, reflecting a net increase of Rs15 billion. Unaccounted-for-gas (UFG) is projected at 7.25%, he said. This is an ERR submission and will be followed by a couple of reviews; "the actual UFG differs from the one initially given in the ERR."
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