logo
Budget 3.0: Godongwana should prioritise economic growth, says economist

Budget 3.0: Godongwana should prioritise economic growth, says economist

Eyewitness News19-05-2025
JOHANNESBURG - A tough week of fiscal juggling awaits the National Treasury this week as Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana prepares to table budget 3.0 on Wednesday.
This follows two failed budgets that saw political and public outrage over proposals to raise the standard value-added tax (VAT) rate.
Godongwana will now have to plug fiscal gaps without further ruffling feathers with higher taxes.
Some economists believe Godongwana will play it safe this time around to avoid another impasse.
Already getting the thumbs up from Cabinet, some political parties are said to be on board with Godongwana's latest budget.
With value-added tax (VAT) off the table, an economist at Sanlam Investments, Patrick Buthelezi, says Godongwana's focus is likely to be on slashing government expenditure.
'Again, the problem with government finances is low economic growth, not revenue. Therefore, government should prioritise growth-promoting areas like investment to achieve a higher growth trajectory in future.'
Buthelezi says he expects a projected revenue hole of about R75 billion over the medium term and a deterioration of the economic growth outlook due to trade wars and global policy uncertainty.
'We expect the minister to revise economic growth forecast lower, from an estimate of 1,9%.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

New EFF bill aims to tighten control over South Africa's foreign loans
New EFF bill aims to tighten control over South Africa's foreign loans

IOL News

time3 hours ago

  • IOL News

New EFF bill aims to tighten control over South Africa's foreign loans

Minister Enoch Godongwana revealed in a recent interview with Bloomberg Television that the government is managing a loan package totalling about R54 billion Image: Jairus Mmutle/GCIS The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) have taken formal steps to introduce a Private Member's Bill aimed at tightening parliamentary oversight over the country's foreign borrowing. According to party MP Sinawo Tambo, the proposal is already being processed through the Bills Office and is 'at an advanced stage.' The legislation seeks to ensure that all foreign loan agreements receive prior approval from Parliament and are fully disclosed to the public. The party wrote to the National Assembly Speaker Thoko Didiza in June, notifying her of their intention to table the Public Finance Management Amendment Bill, 2025. "It aims to strengthen democratic oversight and ensure that all foreign loan agreements undergo prior parliamentary approval and are subject to full public disclosure before conclusion. The policy rationale and urgency for this amendment are outlined in the attached policy proposal and consultation documents. The party said in the letter to Didiza. "The Bill is premised on the constitutional principles of transparency, accountability, and sound financial governance, as provided for in Sections 215 and 216 of the Constitution." The proposal comes amid growing concerns over the country's escalating debt levels. South Africa's debt-to-GDP ratio has grown from 23.6% in 2008/09 to a projected 74.7% in 2024/25. The International Monetary Fund has also recommended that South Africa reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio to 60% to align with international standards. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad loading Action SA is just pathetic. The EFF is already processing this with the Bills Office and it is at an advanced stage. This is just a sad and pathetic stunt. — Sinawo Thambo (@Sinawo_Thambo) August 3, 2025 Earlier this year, the party was also critical of the government's decision to sign a US$1.5 billion (R27.2 billion) loan agreement with the World Bank for infrastructure development. "The EFF is deeply concerned by the rising trend of foreign-denominated loans, particularly when there is sufficient liquidity in the domestic financial market and alternative monetary policy interventions that remain unexplored, " the party said. Since then, the government has secured several additional loans. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana revealed in a recent interview with Bloomberg Television that the government is managing a loan package totalling about R54 billion from international lenders, including the World Bank, African Development Bank, and KFW.

SA cities may get faster flood payouts under new insurance plan
SA cities may get faster flood payouts under new insurance plan

The South African

time3 hours ago

  • The South African

SA cities may get faster flood payouts under new insurance plan

South Africa is exploring whether its major cities should adopt flood insurance to better cope with the growing cost of climate disasters. As reported by Mybroadband , the move follows several years of catastrophic floods that forced the government to divert funds from essential services to cover recovery costs. The insurance being considered is parametric – a type of coverage that pays out automatically when a specific trigger, such as extreme rainfall, is reached. Unlike traditional insurance, it doesn't require a damage assessment, meaning payouts arrive faster when disasters strike. Recent years of damaging floods have underscored the urgency of the discussion, including the 2022 KZN floods, when torrential rains killed at least 459 people in Durban and damaged critical infrastructure. Another example of this would be when Cape Town recorded excessive rainfall in July last year, and tens of thousands of homes were damaged. 'The cost of disasters, both climate-related and other, has risen significantly over the past several years,' South Africa's National Treasury said in a report released Friday. It noted that disaster relief often comes at the expense of key services like education, health, and safety. To explore parametric insurance as part of a wider disaster risk mitigation strategy, the Treasury has partnered with the World Bank. AXA Climate, a division of France's AXA SA, has been commissioned to conduct the study. If implemented, legislative changes would be required to support the new insurance model. Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1. Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.

Department of Trade, Industry and Competition says 30,000 jobs at risk from Trump tariffs
Department of Trade, Industry and Competition says 30,000 jobs at risk from Trump tariffs

Daily Maverick

time4 hours ago

  • Daily Maverick

Department of Trade, Industry and Competition says 30,000 jobs at risk from Trump tariffs

Trade and Industry Minister Parks Tau said his department would be sharing 'a set of more detailed proposals' on SA's tariff response package with the Cabinet later this week. US President Donald Trump's tariffs on South Africa could put about 30,000 jobs at risk, officials from the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (DTIC) said on Monday, 4 August 2025. 'We've based this on the ongoing consultations that we have with all the sectors of the economy — from automotive, agriculture and all the other sectors that are going to be impacted — and at this stage we are sitting at approximately 30,000 jobs that could be affected by this, if it were to be mismanaged in any manner,' department director-general Simphiwe Hamilton told reporters. Hamilton, along with DTIC Minister Parks Tau, Department of International Relations and Cooperation (Dirco) Minister Ronald Lamola and Dirco director-general Zane Dangor briefed the media on SA's response to the US tariffs in Johannesburg. Last Thursday, Trump signed an executive order placing new tariff rates on dozens of countries, hours before the 1 August deadline he had set for deals to be made. Some countries received modified tariff rates, while South Africa's remained at the 30% previously proposed by the US. The tariffs are expected to come into effect at 12.01am on 8 August, according to Lamola. In response, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced on Friday, 1 August, that Pretoria was preparing a package to support companies that were vulnerable to the US tariffs, which included the formation of an Export Support Desk to support South African exporters, set up by the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition last week. On Monday, Tau said his department would be sharing 'a set of more detailed proposals' on SA's tariff response package with the Cabinet on Wednesday that 'would elaborate on the structure of the support package'. The US is South Africa's third-largest trading partner (7.5% of total exports), with China being its second-largest trading partner (11%) and the EU its largest, with 17%. Daily Maverick reported previously that Trump's 30% tariffs would be a devastating blow to South Africa's automotive sector and citrus industry. While the risk to the South African automotive and agricultural industry is valid, it's not all doom and gloom. While the potential for the loss of 30,000 jobs is real, there is nuance, as chief wealth economist at Old Mutual, Izak Odendaal, explained to Daily Maverick. 'You can't say that as of this morning, the whole industry has collapsed,' he said. 'It's about whether individual US customers choose to absorb the tariffs, cancel contracts or gradually unwind their supply chains.' While Odendaal highlighted the automotive sector as particularly vulnerable, he made it clear that both the record of tariff uncertainty coupled with the pivot to new markets mitigated the risk of Trumpian tariffs. 'These are economic policies pursued for political reasons,' said Odendaal. 'Brazil getting 50% tariffs and Canada 35% suggests this is less about economics and more about realignment or punishment.' He added that US courts might still challenge whether such tariffs complied with trade laws that permitted restrictions only for economic emergencies. 'The hard truth,' Odendaal added, 'is that South Africa doesn't have much leverage. We don't export anything to the US that they can't get elsewhere. So our best bet is to be pragmatic — use our foreign policy to unlock trade, not constrain it.' He suggested that if long-standing allegiances — such as ties to Iran or Cuba — came with measurable economic costs, the government should be transparent with citizens about those trade-offs, without suggesting moral compromise. Left in the lurch Tau and Lamola said that their teams had been working frantically for months to secure a trade deal with the US to avert Trump's punishing tariffs. 'Since the beginning of the seventh administration, South Africa embarked on a process to stabilise and enhance mutually beneficial trade and investment relations with the US. The aim has been to address long-standing bilateral issues of concern for both sides in ways that move the trade relations forward. South Africa has been engaging the US at various levels with a view to ensuring predictability in trade. However, even with these efforts, the US decided to impose a 30% unilateral tariff on South Africa,' said Lamola. South Africa proffered a proposed framework deal to US trade representatives in Washington in May, before Ramaphosa and Trump met at the White House on 21 May. At a meeting in June, US representatives told Department of Trade, Industry and Competition officials that they needed to revise this proposal, in accordance with the Trump administration's new template for US trade with sub-Saharan Africa, which they said would be shared ' soon '. On Monday, Tau revealed that this template, in fact, never arrived. According to Tau, after waiting for the template, the department followed up, and the US then suggested that SA sign a confidentiality agreement that would 'unlock the discussions'. 'We signed the confidentiality agreement. We did not get a signed confidentiality agreement on the other side,' he said. Two days before Trump's 1 August deadline, Pretoria asked the US for the trade template and confidentiality agreement. However, Tau said the feedback from America was to regard the template as a 'red herring at this point', and to put forward a trade offer for the US to respond to. Tau said SA was told 'that offer should not be a negotiating offer'. 'It's a very difficult negotiating platform to enter into,' he added. 'When you are in that situation, part of your reality is that you actually don't know what tariff you're going to get even after making that offer.' 'Cheap political scoring' Lamola said that Pretoria's efforts to reset the relationship with Washington had been 'undermined by some actors' within South Africa. He accused political parties, including some of those in the Government of National Unity (GNU), of 'cheap political scoring' on this issue. Lamola said this 'undermined' the process. 'Our view is that, when you're dealing with such complex issues, all South Africans should speak with one voice in the national interest — whether [in] opposition or in the GNU,' he said. This comes after both the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition and the Presidency have issued statements condemning, in particular, the DA's actions in relation to SA-US relations. Last week, Tau accused the DA of continuing to release ' reckless statements ' that undermined the progress the department was making toward the 1 August deadline set by Trump. In a statement issued on 4 August, the DA blamed ministers Tau and Lamola for the tariff outcome, accusing them of 'negligence and ineptitude' in failing to secure a trade deal. The party criticised the new Export Support Desk as a 'laughable help desk' and pointed to Botswana's reduced 15% tariff as evidence of better diplomacy in the region. Commenting on whether issues such as BEE and South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice played a role in tariff negotiations, Lamola said: 'We didn't want to focus on speculation, whether it was affirmative action or any other politics… We remain open to engage the US.' Asked by reporters who was to blame for SA's failure to secure a trade deal with the US, Tau said the government remained 'focused on the task and not on who to blame'. 'Should we be apportioning blame? I think we should leave that to those who seek to score political points, as opposed to finding solutions to the challenges that we have,' said Tau. DM

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store