Child tax credit debate could get 'really interesting' as Senate weighs Trump's mega-bill, expert says

CNBC

3 days ago

As the Senate debates President Donald Trump's multi-trillion-dollar tax and spending package, there could be changes to the child tax credit, policy experts say.
If enacted as drafted, the House-approved bill would make permanent the maximum $2,000 credit passed via Trump's 2017 tax cuts — which could otherwise revert to $1,000 after 2025 without action from Congress.
The highest credit would also rise to $2,500 from 2025 to 2028. After that, the credit's top value would revert to $2,000 and be indexed for inflation.
But the Senate could have different plans, and negotiations will be "really interesting to watch," said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.
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The proposed higher child tax credit comes as the U.S. fertility rate hovers near historic lows, which has been a concern for lawmakers, including the Trump administration.
Some research suggests financial incentives, like a bigger child tax credit, could boost U.S. fertility. But other experts say it won't solve the issue long-term.
As the Senate prepares to debate Trump's mega-bill, here's how the child tax credit could change.
While Democrats have long pushed for a child tax credit expansion, there has also been a more recent bipartisan push for changes.
Vice President JD Vance, who formerly served as Senator of Ohio, floated a higher child tax credit during the campaign in August.
"I'd love to see a child tax credit that's $5,000 per child. But you, of course, have to work with Congress to see how possible and viable that is," he told CBS' "Face the Nation."
Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., in January also called on the Senate floor for a $5,000 child tax credit. His proposal would apply the credit to payroll taxes and provide advance payments throughout the year.
"There's some recognition here that they need do a little more," Gleckman said.
Often, tax credits don't benefit the lowest earners unless they are "refundable," meaning filers can still claim without taxes owed. Nonrefundable credits can lock out those consumers because they often don't have tax liability.
House lawmakers in January 2024 passed a bipartisan child tax credit expansion, which would have improved access and retroactively boosted the refundable portion.
While the bill failed in the Senate in August, Republicans said they would revisit the measure.
However, the child tax credit in the latest House-approved bill is less generous than the provision passed in 2024, policy experts say.
As written, the House plan provides no additional benefit to 17 million children from low-income families who can't claim the full $2,000 credit, Margot Crandall-Hollick, principal research associate at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, wrote in May.