Expert view: Israel-Iran war toughest of tightrope walks for India

India Today

21 hours ago

(NOTE: This article was originally published in the India Today issue dated July 7, 2025)A ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced by Donald Trump in characteristic hyperbolic fashion early morning on June 24. Within hours, the tenuous agreement, worked out with the help of Qatar, had been violated by both sides, much to Trump's expletive-spiced frustration. At the time of writing, the situation remains uncertain, but the whys and the wherefores are becoming clearer.advertisementAt the heart of this war of choice lies Benjamin Netanyahu's search for a new legacy. He wants to be remembered not as the watchman on duty on October 7 but rather as the leader who changed 'the face of the Middle East'. For decades, he has raised fears of a nuclear-armed Iran posing an existential threat to Israel and has tried to lure US presidents into war with Iran; it is his way of ensuring Israeli-US hegemony and a free hand across the region. The timing has never been so propitious: Iran's proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, have been debilitated, Syria's Assad overthrown, Iran's economy in disarray, its regime unpopular. And Trump, who earlier abandoned the nuclear agreement with Iran, is back in the White House. Netanyahu attacked Iran in spectacular fashion, gambled on Trump being cajoled, given his weakness for owning a win, into doing the heavy lifting with his bunker busters. And he won.advertisement
Donald Trump could not resist the adrenaline rush of playing the Commander-in-chief. After a deliberately vague statement—'I may do it, I may not do it'—and a dissembling round of golf, he unleashed America's menacing military might on the nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. With that, he joined the US presidents who, in his own words delivered in Saudi Arabia last month, 'have been afflicted with the notion that it is our job to look into the souls of foreign leaders and use US policy to dispense justice for their sins'.
Trump has earlier railed against 'endless wars' and projected himself as the peacemaker. But frustrated by failures to resolve Gaza or Ukraine quickly, he needed a victory. He brushed aside MAGA nay-sayers, ignored the Congress and negated the intelligence submitted to the Congress by his own director of National Intelligence that Iran had made no moves towards nuclear weaponisation. The truth is that Trump got nicely played by Netanyahu and the Israeli lobby.Where does this dance of destruction leave the region? There is no clarity regarding the damage to Iran's nuclear facilities. Trump claimed they have been 'completely and totally obliterated'; the IAEA proclaims 'significant damage' and yet there has been no rise in off-site radiation. Some of Iran's 400 kg of 60 per cent enriched Uranium is thought to have been moved to unknown sites. Only time will tell whether this was a better way than negotiations for making Iran compliant with its NPT obligations or whether it will push Iran out of the NPT or further towards a clandestine bomb.advertisementBut Iran's top line of nuclear scientists and military commanders have been assassinated and its air defences decimated. Netanyahu has had a free run of Iranian skies, bombing at will not just military targets but Revolutionary Guard and police establishments, indicating his intent to engineer regime change. He has now announced that the dual imminent existential threat to Israel, both nuclear and ballistic, has been removed.Israel's missile defences have also been shown to be vulnerable. Tel Aviv and other cities and iconic institutions have been hit by Iranian missiles. Israelis, though broadly supportive of Netanyahu's attack on Iran, will be thankful that this has not turned into a war of attrition.advertisementAt best, this is an uncertain end to the present conflict; military actions are not the solution to complex underlying problems. The lessons of such conflict need to be factored into India's West Asia policy. Around 40 per cent of our oil imports (Iraq, Saudi and UAE) and LNG supplies from Qatar come through the Strait of Hormuz which Iran can close as a desperate measure. Raised shipping and insurance costs for our exports to West Asia and through the Red Sea will impact trade and transportation. The nine million-strong Indian diaspora in the region and their remittances will be at risk. Without political stability, our investment in Iran's Chabahar port is vulnerable, and visions like the I2U2 and the India-Middle East-Europe corridor (IMEC) should be approached with caution. Given our strategic links with the US, Iran and Israel, we will have to walk more than one tightrope in a demonstration of strategic autonomy. But our substantial interests demand that we encourage them all to take the path of dialogue and diplomacy.—The author is a former Indian ambassador to the USSubscribe to India Today Magazine- EndsTune InMust Watch