Sean Stein on why US businesses are walking a tightrope to stay in China

South China Morning Post

5 days ago

Sean Stein is president of the US-China Business Council (USCBC), a Washington-based non-profit organisation that promotes trade between the world's two largest economies. The council represents more than 270 American companies doing business in China.
He most recently served as board chair of the American Chamber of Commerce in China and is chair emeritus of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. Before that, he served for nearly three decades as a diplomat, including as US Consul General in Shenyang and Shanghai.
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It has been broadly assumed the US and China will extend the
90-day pause on tariff increases they agreed to after talks in Geneva by another 90 days. What trade deals could we see by November? What do American companies with business in China expect? How will their voices be heard in Washington?
That is correct – it is almost inevitable that the 90-day pause gets extended, particularly since the two sides have announced that there is a framework deal. The alternative is unthinkable. It would mean going back to pre-Geneva, triple-digit tariffs, something neither side wants.
Looking at the potential for a broader deal, now that China has added two fentanyl precursors to its list of restricted chemicals, there is some expectation that the US may lower the 20 per cent tariff it put in place due to fentanyl. When that happens, China is expected to lower some of its retaliatory tariffs. This could be a path back toward a more normal trade relationship, but so far, we have not seen the US take steps to reciprocate China's gesture.
What the business community is worried about is that virtually all the discussion between the countries has been about tariffs.