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Long U.S. Treasury Yields Ease; Fed Rate Cut Isn't Imminent

0617 GMT – Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields are little changed in European hours, while there was no cash trading in Tokyo on Japanese holiday. Following last week's CPI print for June, money markets continue to rule out an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, according to LSEG. 'I think we could see a rate cut in September, and possibly another reduction in December,' FP Markets' Aaron Hill says in a note. However, 'this all ultimately depends on how the data performs and the impact that tariffs have had,' he says. The two-year Treasury yield is flat at 3.877%, while the 10-year yield is down 1.5 bps at 4.414%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0606 GMT – German Bunds are likely to stabilize further this week, with buyers entering at levels about 2.70% for the 10-year Bund, say Commerzbank Research's Hauke Siemssen and Erik Liem in a note. 'In Bunds, 10-year yields got repeatedly bought above 2.70%, with the steepening mostly driven by the weak ultra-long end,' the rates strategists say. Shaky risk sentiment and subdued purchasing manager indexes are likely to provide support, they say. This would also cap a rise in yields. Flash estimate purchasing managers' data for July for France, Germany and the eurozone are due on Thursday, prior to the European Central Bank's interest-rate decision later that day. The 10-year German Bund yield closed at 2.699% last Friday, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
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US Trade Talk Delays Jolt South Korean Leader's Honeymoon Phase
US Trade Talk Delays Jolt South Korean Leader's Honeymoon Phase

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US Trade Talk Delays Jolt South Korean Leader's Honeymoon Phase

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Trump and White House take their Powell battle to Fed HQ
Trump and White House take their Powell battle to Fed HQ

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Trump and White House take their Powell battle to Fed HQ

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In short, Powell's job is looking slightly more secure this week — but the central bank chief's problems clearly aren't going away. Up first is today's visit from Trump. The focus there is ongoing construction of the Federal Reserve headquarters amid critiques from newly appointed Trump allies on the National Capital Planning Commission (NCPC) that could go so far as to seek to stop ongoing construction pending further review. In addition to Trump, today's tour is expected to include White House deputy chief of staff James Blair (who is also a new member of the NCPC), budget director Russell Vought, and Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, who has emerged as another vocal Powell critic. Then, in the coming weeks, Powell will wrestle with calls for an "exhaustive internal review" of the Fed's operations and pressure from Republicans on Capitol Hill that could ramp up in the fall. The Fed got another new headache Thursday when a money manager — and Trump ally who recently served as an adviser to the Department of Government Efficiency — filed a lawsuit arguing the central bank is violating a 1976 federal law by keeping its policy meetings behind closed doors. There's even a long-shot call for the Department of Justice to get involved and look at Powell personally. This comes as Powell is set to gather the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next week for another interest rate decision. Markets and many analysts say this is pushing all of Trump's actions as the president continues a daily pressure campaign to press the central banker and his colleagues to cut interest rates. Read more: How the Fed rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments Up first: A high-profile site tour Today's tour of the Federal Reserve headquarters is at the behest of Trump allies recently appointed to the National Capital Planning Commission (NCPC). Blair, one of Trump's top aides, has leveled a series of attacks on Powell for weeks now over the building cost overruns, even charging at one point, "What do they not want us to see?" The central bank has repeatedly defended itself against the charges, even publishing a page on its website devoted to the renovations. It says the increased costs came because of increased material costs and "unforeseen conditions" like asbestos, toxic contamination in the soil, and a higher-than-expected water table. The project costs have grown from around $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion after the Fed submitted designs to the NCPC and received approval from that agency in 2020 and 2021. The two buildings, Powell added in a recent note, were in need of "significant structural repairs" after not having a comprehensive renovation since they were built in the 1930s. The changes, argue Trump allies like Vought, could mean the project is out of compliance with the approved plan, leading to a possible standoff as to whether the central bank needs to resubmit to the NCPC. Powell is clearly looking to avoid that scenario, writing that the bank "does not regard any of these changes as warranting further review." But White House officials are sending a different message. "We want to see it for ourselves," Blair recently told reporters, adding that he is also looking to obtain "all of the revised plans since 2021." Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte is also expected to join and has already traveled to the site to film a video, as he called the construction costs "very disturbing." Other key pressure points This week's site visit comes as Powell is weathering an array of additional pressure points, with many lines of inquiry ongoing from Capitol Hill. Rep. 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Tim Scott — who asked Powell about the Fed's renovations during a June 25 hearing — sent Powell a letter Wednesday asking for more questions to be answered by Aug. 8. He said there were "distinct differences" between public plans about the renovation, Powell's testimony, and what the Fed has said on its website. Treasury Secretary Bessent has also called for an "exhaustive internal review" of the Fed, saying it could be Powell's "legacy," as he accused the central bank of mission creep in its non-monetary policy activities. Trump has signaled his support for the effort, and some observers say this could be the most consequential change if the idea gains steam and looks to reshape how the central bank operates. A recent note from Signum Global Advisors called this potentially "an even more holistic reshaping of the Fed than a 'mere' dismissal of Chair Jerome Powell," adding it's an effort that could extend even beyond the end of Powell's chairmanship. This story has been updated with additional developments. Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

How Trump could use a building renovation to oust Fed Chair Powell
How Trump could use a building renovation to oust Fed Chair Powell

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How Trump could use a building renovation to oust Fed Chair Powell

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump may have found a way to achieve his goal of removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: by accusing him of mismanaging the U.S. central bank's $2.5 billion building renovation project. The push comes after a monthslong campaign by Trump to try to rid himself of the politically independent central banker, who has resisted the Republican president's calls to slash interest rates out of concerns about the administration's tariffs sparking higher levels of inflation. The Supreme Court recently signaled that Trump can't fire Powell simply because the president disagrees with him on interest rates. But legally he could do so 'for cause,' such as misconduct or dereliction of duty. Trump has seized on that provision, indicating that Powell's handling of an extensive renovation project on two Fed buildings in Washington could be grounds to take the unprecedented and possibly legally dubious step of firing him. The project has been underway for years, going back to Trump's first term. But it only recently caught the White House's attention. Last week, when asked if he thought the building renovation was a 'firing offense,' Trump said, 'I think it is.' But he later added that it was 'highly unlikely' that he would ultimately remove Powell before his term expires in May 2026. The risk of the Fed losing its political independence could undermine America's financial markets, possibly leading to a meltdown in stocks and investors charging a premium to lend to the U.S. economy. Here's what to know: Ousting Powell risks setting off market panic The Fed chair has been an obstacle in Trump's efforts to gain total control over the executive branch. Powell and his board have the dual mandate of maximizing employment and keeping prices stable, a task that can require them to make politically unpopular moves such as raising interest rates to hold inflation in check. The general theory is that keeping the Fed free from the influence of the White House — other than for nominations of Fed officials — allows it to fulfill its mission based on what the economy needs, instead of what a politician wants. An attempt to remove Powell from his job before his term ends would undercut the Fed's long-standing independence from day-to-day politics and could lead to higher inflation, higher interest rates and a weaker economy. The Fed's main headquarters is over 90 years old The Fed says its main headquarters, known as the Marriner S. Eccles building, was in dire need of an upgrade because its electrical, plumbing and HVAC systems, among others, are nearly obsolete and some date back to the building's construction in the 1930s. The renovation will also remove asbestos, lead and other hazardous elements and update the building with modern electrical and communications systems. The H-shaped building, named after a former Fed chair in the 1930s and '40s, is located near some of Washington's highest-profile monuments and has references to classical architecture and marble in the facades and stonework. The central bank is also renovating a building next door that it acquired in 2018. The Fed says there has been periodic maintenance to the structures but adds this is the first 'comprehensive renovation.' The renovation costs have ballooned over the years Trump administration officials have criticized the Fed over the project's expense, which has reached $2.5 billion, about $600 million more than was originally budgeted. Like a beleaguered homeowner facing spiraling costs for a remodeling project, the Fed cites many reasons for the greater expense. Construction costs, including for materials and labor, rose sharply during the inflation spike in 2021 and 2022. More asbestos needed to be removed than expected. Washington's local restrictions on building heights forced it to build underground, which is pricier. In 2024, the Fed's board canceled its planned renovations of a third building because of rising costs. The Fed says the renovations will reduce costs 'over time' because it will be able to consolidate its roughly 3,000 Washington-based employees into fewer buildings and will no longer need to rent as much extra space as it does now. White House budget director calls renovations 'ostentatious' Russ Vought, the administration's top budget adviser, wrote Powell a letter that said Trump is 'extremely troubled' about the Fed's 'ostentatious overhaul' of its facilities. The Fed's renovation plans call for 'rooftop terrace gardens, VIP private dining rooms and elevators, water features, premium marble, and much more," Vought said in last week's letter. Powell has disputed the claims, which were given wide circulation in a paper issued by the Mercatus Center, a think tank at George Mason University, in March 2025. The paper was written by Andrew Levin, an economist at Dartmouth College and former Fed staffer. 'There's no VIP dining room," Powell said last month during a Senate Banking Committee hearing. 'There's no new marble. ... There are no special elevators. There are no new water features. ... And there's no roof terrace gardens.' Some of those elements were removed from initial building plans submitted in 2021, the Fed says. White House also takes issue with the Fed reducing its renovation costs The Fed's changes to its building plans have opened it up to another line of attack: White House officials suggest the Fed violated the terms of the approval it received from a local planning commission by changing its plans. In its September 2021 approval of the project, the National Capital Planning Commission said it 'Commends' the Fed for 'fully engaging partner federal agencies.' But because the Fed changed its plans, the administration is indicating it needed to go back to the commission for a separate approval. Essentially, White House officials are saying Powell is being reckless with taxpayer money because of the cost of the renovation, but they are also accusing him of acting unethically by scaling back the project to save money. James Blair, the White House deputy chief of staff whom Trump named to the commission, said in a post on X that Powell's June congressional testimony "leads me to conclude the project is not in alignment with plans submitted to & approved by the National Capital Planning Commission in 2021.' Blair said he intends to review materials from the Fed on how the approved 2021 renovation plans have changed and circulate a letter among his colleagues on the commission that would go to Fed officials. The Fed has asked for an independent review of the project The central bank says, in a series of frequently asked questions on its website, that it is "not subject to the direction' of the commission and has only complied with its directives voluntarily. Instead, the Fed said it is accountable to the Senate and the House of Representatives and is overseen by an independent inspector general, not the White House. Powell has asked the inspector general to review the costs of the renovation project. ___ Follow the AP's coverage of the Federal Reserve System at Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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