New doctrine & the terrorist food chain

Hindustan Times

3 days ago

Union home minister Amit Shah recently detailed the killing of three terrorists in the forests of Dachigam, and recounted the forensic evidence linking them to the Pahalgam attack. Much is yet to be revealed about their movements and their handlers as their communication sets and other electronic equipment are examined. What is certain is that these are highly trained terrorists, almost irregular, able to virtually disappear into the forests and with little contact with the population. More such groups are understood to be in the forests, waiting for a signal to move.
In this context, we must evaluate India's new doctrine, which states that any terrorist attack will be considered an act of war, and retaliation not just against terrorists, but also against their backers. That's a much-needed drawing of red lines in the face of a persistent terrorist threat. But wars of any kind, limited or otherwise, are an expensive business, in this case, requiring almost continuous military readiness. Certainly, it can be done, and actions towards that are well in hand. But ideally, it would be as well to prevent terrorists from gaining their objectives in the first place. That means dealing with it in its entire spectrum.
First, it is now obvious that the Pahalgam attack had several simultaneous objectives. In descending order, the first was to light a fire in Kashmir that would end the influx of tourists into Kashmir, and to coerce the security forces to once again launch forceful counter terrorism (CT) operations in the Valley. Both are linked issues, and both have the potential to send Kashmir back to the 1990s.
Though the Amarnath yatra has picked up in full scale, together with security measures, tourism is a different kettle of fish. The sight of thousands of soldiers standing around is hardly likely to enthuse the average selfie-seeking tourist. But oversight is vital, and it is time to shift from the time-tested method of blanketing the area with troops to one that involves intense surveillance camera coverage, paired with facial recognition, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and big data. China's Safe Cities projects are a flourishing business, using both foreign vendors and local manufacturers, and are exported elsewhere, including Pakistan. Islamabad is now fitting another 3000 AI-enabled cameras in addition to the 2,500 already there. Notice that Islamabad has largely escaped terror. Even as soldiers disappear from the streets, tourism can take off safely, giving Kashmiris their income and preventing a relapse to supporting terrorists for money. This also leaves the security forces with manpower to do other CT tasks. This time round, ways have to be found to knit CT operations into a public programme for local safety.
Second, the methodology of Pahalgam, deliberately separating Muslims from Hindus, and gunning down the latter, is aimed at the larger Bharat, and is the most dangerous tool yet. That an almost derelict terror group, the Al Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent, called for Muslims to rise against the present government in a holy war, and that too in both English and Urdu, is one indication. Then, there is a spate of disinformation; for instance, a recent video of a man from a minority community allegedly beating his Hindu wife. A fact check showed this as completely false. Others are aimed at communally sensitive areas like Sambhal in Uttar Pradesh, where a video claiming an alleged attack on Hindu devotees on their way to a temple by a group of jihadists was a fight within the group over fruit. Guidelines prepared by the ministry of home affairs need to be updated, particularly in border areas like West Bengal, where a variety of criminal elements operate together with jihadis from Bangladesh. Local politics hardly helps. An empowered committee comprising experts from different fields — from information warfare to social sciences — needs to review the ways to deal with a communal divide that is being further fostered, with imaginative solutions rather than sops to any community.
Third, there is the reality of near round-the-clock operational readiness. That includes not only making or buying critical weaponry for stand-off war, but also a commitment to stock inventory for a conflict which may break out at any time and at very short notice. The challenges are outlined extensively elsewhere in terms of creating a conventional capability that will deter in itself, promising multiple ways of punishment that will prevent Islamabad's usual recourse to crying wolf with nuclear weapons.
But in terms of CT, what is vital is better 'eyes and ears'. That is, the ability to listen in to terrorist conversations, not just to intruders, but also their handlers, entire families, and everybody around them. Terrorists have become tech smart, not just in communication with so-called 'ultra sets' that completely bypass mobile towers and self-erasing messages, but in raising and moving money. That means better technical solutions, and highly boosted human intelligence. In sum, all our major intelligence agencies need more funding, as well as partners from countries with a strong self-interest in such operations.
Finally, terrorism in Pakistan is sponsored by less than 0.0002% of the population, which is the army and its proxies. Generally, civilian leaders have an interest in prosperity and turning Pakistan into a hub for cross-continental trade, because it promises money for themselves and their voter base. This was once proposed by then army chief General Bajwa, and backed by then prime minister Imran Khan. Diplomacy must focus tightly on regenerating a flailing democracy-first narrative, ensuring that international aid is tied to democracy, and publicising that considerable largesse awaits if the Pakistan army steps back into the shadows. It's a tall order, but not impossible. A post-Sindoor Gallup poll showed high praise of the army, but also strong support for reviving trade and sports links with India.
To deal with terrorism, understand the whole food chain — from ambitious generals to the hawala traders. As seen recently, war only gives them the oxygen they crave. Peace would choke them to death.
Tara Kartha is a former director of the National Security Council Secretariat. The views expressed are personal.