The lowest and highest birth rates in Melbourne by suburb
Last year, 55,730 babies were born in greater Melbourne, 8.2 per cent less than the 60,690 births recorded in 2019. The city's population grew by 270,000 people in that five-year period, underlying its heavy reliance on migration to grow.
Melbourne's fertility rate – the average number of children born in a woman's lifetime – fell to 1.4 last year, the lowest among major Australian cities, and well below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a city's population without migration.
But the declining fertility rate was not spread evenly across the city.
Melbourne's newest outer suburbs remain fertile breeding ground for new families, while the inner-city and affluent middle suburbs have become relative baby deserts.
The statistics, based on preliminary analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data by KPMG, also reveal that fertility rates are closely aligned with house sizes in Melbourne. Suburbs with the highest fertility rates typically have houses with three or more bedrooms on average, while less fertile suburbs are dominated by one- and two-bedroom homes.
But there are outliers: a large handful of wealthy suburbs filled with big family-sized homes that are unaffordable to most young families and increasingly filled with empty-nesters.
KPMG Urban Economist Terry Rawnsley said Melbourne's declining birth rate could be linked to recent high inflation and worsening housing affordability.
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