What's next for North Korean troops fighting for Russia? A possible Ukraine deployment, experts, officials say

Yahoo

29-04-2025

North Korean troops fighting for Russia in Kursk Oblast could be redeployed to fight in Ukraine itself, experts and Ukrainian officials have told the Kyiv Independent, though there is still much uncertainty about the next steps Pyongyang's soldiers could take.
Such a move would have huge ramifications for Russia's full-scale invasion, and far-reaching implications for the international community.
"If the Kremlin sends North Korean troops to the territory of Ukraine it would mean that North Korea is in a state of all out war with Ukraine," Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent.
The lawmaker from the ruling Servant of the People explained that such a deployment would cause "serious legal, political, and military consequences for Russia and North Korea," prompting a stronger reaction from countries such as South Korea and the U.S.
"(Russian President Vladimir) Putin understands that if he does it (U.S. President Donald) Trump will have to react rather strongly," Merezhko said.
North Korean troops have been fighting alongside Moscow's forces against Ukrainian troops in Russia's Kursk Oblast since December 2024, after Kyiv launched an incursion into the region in August of the same year.
Moscow and Pyongyang only officially acknowledged the deployment this week, as Ukrainian troops were reportedly forced out of most of the oblast, though Kyiv has said some fighting is still ongoing.
Pyongyang has deployed some 14,000 troops to Russia, mostly consisting of its special operations unit — the figure includes 3,000 that North Korea sent this year to replenish the casualties taken on the battlefield, the New York Times reported on April 27, citing South Korean officials.
With the battle for Kursk Oblast winding down, concerns are mounting over what the North Korean troops — who have gained valuable experience of fighting on a modern battlefield — will do next.
Former Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, chairman of the Kyiv-based Center for Defense Strategies, warned that Moscow likely plans to start deploying North Korean troops to the front line in Ukraine, and that Pyongyang could continue sending more soldiers to Russia as assault troops.
Ruslan Gorbenko, a lawmaker from the ruling Servant of the People who regularly travels to the war-torn east, agreed with Zagorodnyuk's assessment, saying that the North Korean troops' deployment to the front in Ukraine appears inevitable.
'In 2025, we will see North Korean troops as separate units in the assault on the territory of Ukraine,' Gorbenko told the Kyiv Independent, stressing that it is his personal opinion.
But there are other options — Rob Lee, a former U.S. marine infantry officer and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia Program, said what Russia plans to do next is unclear, especially since "presumably they could also be used in Belgorod (Oblast)," referring to an adjacent Russian region where Ukraine conducted a limited incursion in March.
There is also a possibility that North Korea may send its troops back home now that Russia has thanked them for their participation in the battle for Kursk Oblast, which can be interpreted as "an air of finality," according to John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Regardless of where they end up, the experience they have gained by fighting alongside Russian forces should not be underestimated.
Western military experts and Ukrainian soldiers on the ground have previously told the Kyiv Independent that while it took the fresh North Korean troops some time to adjust to drone warfare, they have since made changes to their assault tactics and improved their fighting capability.
"If they are sent elsewhere, they could pose some serious challenges because they have demonstrated they are very good infantry, particularly compared to most Russian infantry at this point,' Lee, who travels regularly to the Ukrainian front lines, told the Kyiv Independent.
'They are very physically fit, they are very ideologically motivated, and they have learned to adapt their tactics to a battlefield with (drones). In particular, if they are employed on different terrain, such as in a forest or city, they may prove to be even more effective."
This would clearly pose a problem for Ukraine if they were redeployed to fight on the front lines where Kyiv's forces are already stretched, and would bolster Moscow's manpower advantage in its already bogged-down spring offensive.
Pyongyang's official acknowledgement it is fighting alongside Russia could mean it is ready to "double down and allow its forces to fight inside Ukraine, on the territories that Russia has annexed and which North Korea recognizes as part of Russia," Hardie said.
They could be deployed to the front in Donetsk Oblast, in the Pokrovsk or Kostiantynivka areas, serving as light infantry, he added.
"It's not a decisive contribution to the war given the relatively small number of forces, but it does exacerbate Russia's advantage in manpower and adds pressure on the Ukrainian defense with North Korean troops, who by all accounts fight very hard," Hardie said, though the timeframe for such a move is unclear.
"Really, it could happen within days, although I think they would take time to figure out how to integrate them with the local Russian units, etc.," he said.
"So it would probably be a matter of weeks, at least."
The consequences of such a move could be immense — up until now North Korean troops have only been fighting on Russian territory, but crossing the border would constitute an act of aggression under international law and Pyongyang would be regarded as being in a state of war against Ukraine, something Gorbenko warned could escalate into "World War III."
Read also: Why Zelensky won't — and can't — sell out Ukraine for Trump's peace
We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.