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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Ukraine hasn't won over Trump. But it might not need to.
President Donald Trump's seemingly infinite patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin may, in fact, have limits. 'Something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY!' Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform this week, citing the massive recent airstrikes on Ukrainian cities and Putin's desire to conquer 'ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it.' Trump also took a vague shot at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ('everything out of his mouth causes problems'), and one could point out that Russia has been striking civilian targets in Ukraine and expressing a desire to snuff out Ukraine's political independence since the very beginning of the war. Trump followed up by telling reporters he is considering imposing new sanctions on Russia and posted, 'if it weren't for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia,' but told reporters at the White House on Wednesday that he is holding off on new sanctions for now. So it's not as if Trump has had a full and sudden change of heart overnight. But consider that, at the end of February, Trump was publicly dressing down Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, blaming Ukraine for starting the war, and halting all US assistance to the Ukrainian war effort. By that standard, Trump's new tone is still one of several developments that add up to a welcome change of pace for Kyiv. Even if there are no new measures taken to either support Ukraine or punish Russia, and even if the US 'walks away' from efforts to negotiate a ceasefire, as Vice President JD Vance recently threatened, the events since February still amount to a remarkable diplomatic change of fortune for Ukraine — and probably about as good an outcome as Kyiv could reasonably expect from this administration. For Ukraine, where cities are still reeling from some of the largest airstrikes since the beginning of the war, and where supplies of much-needed air defense ammunition are running dangerously low, there's obviously no cause for celebration. Hanna Shelest, a Kyiv-based defense analyst with the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Vox that despite Trump's changing tone on Putin, his ongoing attacks on Zelenskyy (it's unclear exactly what remarks triggered Trump's ire) indicate that 'we are still in a transactional situation. We have still not been able to dramatically change the approach of the US president.' Trump, for all his current frustration, clearly still views the conflict in a way that is much more sympathetic to Russia's interests than Joe Biden or many members of his own party. But in terms of actual material support, not much has actually changed since Trump took office. Because of the time it takes for those contracts to be negotiated and fulfilled, weapons that were ordered in 2022 are only being delivered now. He has frequently suggested he'd be willing to lift sanctions on Russia as part of a ceasefire agreement, but he has not done so, and in fact, has signed executive orders extending the sanctions that Biden imposed. Many of these sanctions could not be lifted without congressional approval. As Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently put it, 'When Vladimir Putin woke up this morning, he had the same set of sanctions on him that he's always had since the beginning of this conflict.' Aside from a week-long pause following the contentious Oval Office meeting, US weapons shipments to Ukraine have continued. In fact, the rate of weapons deliveries actually increased in the early weeks of the Trump administration because of moves the Biden team made to rush aid out the door before leaving office. The intelligence sharing vital to Ukraine's targeting systems has also continued, as has — despite Elon Musk's threats — the Ukrainian military's access to SpaceX's Starlink satellite network. Congress has allocated two types of funding for aid to Ukraine: The first pays for weapons to be transferred to Ukraine for US military stocks. That aid has been almost exhausted, experts say. The second provides funds for Ukraine to buy its own weapons from American manufacturers. Because of the time it takes for those contracts to be negotiated and fulfilled, weapons that were ordered in 2022 are only being delivered now. The last items from contracts signed in 2024 might not be delivered until 2028. The upshot, as Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, puts it, is that 'the overall military aid being delivered is relatively high and will stay there for quite a while.' This White House and this Congress are very unlikely to allocate new funding for aid to Ukraine, but perhaps others could fill the gap. European governments are reportedly warming to the idea of purchasing weapons from American manufacturers. So far, these governments have preferred to buy from their own companies, but there are a number of systems — such as the all-important Patriot air-defense missiles — that only the US can provide. Ukraine's defense industry is also more self-sufficient than it used to be. The drones that are now inflicting the majority of the casualties on the front lines in Ukraine are increasingly produced in-country by the country's booming autonomous weapons industry. It's even possible that Ukraine may benefit somewhat from a more hands-off American approach. For all that the Biden team made clear it would back Ukraine's war effort for as long as it takes, Ukrainian officials sometimes bristled under what they saw as micromanagement from a White House concerned about the risks of conflict escalation with Russia, particularly when it came to long-range strikes into Russian territory. But according to an announcement from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz this week, allies including the United States have agreed to lift range restrictions on weapons headed to Ukraine, allowing the Ukrainians more freedom to strike targets deep within Russia. The two main shifts in US policy that have taken place under Trump have been the US-Ukraine minerals deal and the direct negotiations with Russia. Both have proven less disastrous for Ukraine than they initially appeared. The original version of the minerals deal presented to Ukraine reportedly required the country to hand over hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue from the mining of its critical minerals as repayment for past military aid. The deal Ukraine eventually signed drops that requirement and while it doesn't include the explicit security guarantees Ukraine was hoping for, it at least gives this transactionally minded administration a financial stake in Ukraine's future. As for the ongoing ceasefire talks, Trump overturned two oft-stated principles of the Biden approach: that Russia should be diplomatically isolated and that there would be no negotiations 'about Ukraine without Ukraine.' But ultimately, Ukraine's political position may have been strengthened by the process. Putin has rejected a proposed 30-day ceasefire after Ukraine agreed to one, was a no-show at talks in Istanbul, where Zelenskyy had proposed meeting face-to-face, and has rejected Trump's proposal to have talks mediated by the Vatican. It's much harder for even the most skeptical to argue, as Trump has previously, that the war is only continuing because of Zelenskyy's unwillingness to make a deal. Even Trump has been forced to wonder if Putin is merely 'tapping me along,' engaging minimally in the diplomatic process without abandoning his end goal of subjugating all of Ukraine, not just the disputed regions, by force. Trump has clearly moved on from the notion that he can end the war in 24 hours and seems to be losing interest in the peace talks entirely. Or as Vance put it, 'We're more than open to walking away.' Much depends on what exactly 'walking away' means. If it means an end to weapons shipments, intelligence sharing, and sanctions on Russia, that would be disastrous for Ukraine, though not necessarily fatal. 'It's not as if we pulled the plug tomorrow, that Ukrainians would just immediately cease to exist, which I think was the administration's assumption when they came in,' said Jeffrey Edmonds, a former White House and Pentagon Russia adviser. 'They thought they had a lot more leverage than they did over both Ukraine and Russia.' (A spokesperson for the White House national security council did not respond to Vox's request for comment.) If Trump merely maintains the status quo — keeps the sanctions that are already in place, continues shipping the weapons that have already been paid for — that might be enough for the Ukrainians to hold the line for at least the coming months. It's true that Russian troops continue to slowly advance, but the rate of advance is already slowing this year, and it loses dozens of casualties per square kilometer. According to one recent estimate, it would take Russia 80 years to conquer all of Ukraine's territory at the current rate. Ukraine's bigger concern may be recruiting enough troops to man the front lines, though its efforts have improved somewhat, US commanders say, and low morale among both troops and civilians as the war drags on with no end in sight. Russia has manpower woes as well as increasing signs of economic distress as it continues to pour money into Ukraine. Trump's tariffs have had the unexpected side-effect of slashing the Russian state's oil revenues. Before Trump took office, Ukrainian leaders expressed some cautious optimism that despite Trump's fondness for Putin and skepticism about the value of supporting to Ukraine, they'd be able to appeal to his transactional nature and turn him to their side. That was overoptimistic: Trump seems unlikely ever to be a strong backer of Ukraine. But he at least appears less likely to be a strong backer of Russia. For the moment, they may be the best they can hope for.
Otago Daily Times
3 days ago
- Health
- Otago Daily Times
Christchurch man believed killed trying to save wounded soldiers in Ukraine
A Christchurch man who died in Ukraine while helping the country's war efforts had earlier said he was living the dream. Twenty-six-year-old Shan-Le Kearns, from Christchurch, died in the past few weeks. He had posted on social media a slogan that translated to 'Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes'. A source in Ukraine said he had been trying to rescue wounded comrades when his group was hit by drones and explosives. Kearns died attempting to save fellow soldiers, and a Finnish soldier was killed alongside him, the source said. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said it had not yet received any confirmation from Ukraine authorities and was urgently seeking information. However, it said the process may take some time given the situation on the ground in Ukraine. It said no further information could be shared, citing privacy reasons. Elis Kearns told 1News that her son was not on the front line but had been trained in combat so he could help rescue injured soldiers. He had been in Ukraine for two years and was intending to stay for another to fulfil his three-year contract, she said. Kearns is the fourth New Zealander known to have died in Ukraine. Dominic Abelen, 28, was killed on 23 August 2022; Andrew Bagshaw, 47, on 6 January 2023; and Kane Te Tai, 38, on 20 March 2023. The Weatherman Foundation is an American NGO which has been in Ukraine since the start of Russia's full scale invasion of the country. Kyiv-based Lauren Guillaume who is from the foundation's missing-in-action programme said the programme started out delivering humanitarian aid but had developed "to really cover the life of a soldier - all the way from treating the wounded in action both their physical wounds and mental PTSD wounds". The programme also supports the families of the missing in action and killed in action, she said. "Unfortunately these days the difference often between a missing in action and killed in action soldier is whether or not their body can be recovered from the battlefield," she said. "What our team does is investigate to identify their body and we also pursue a court case to help the family try to receive a death certificate in the terrible circumstance if a body cannot be recovered." The only way a family such as Sharn-Le Kearns' family can obtain a death certificate "is either through his physical repatriation or through a court case", she said. "So we are helping them in this process all the way from collecting DNA back in New Zealand, helping them to navigate the Ukrainian judicial system by helping them to collect witness testimonies and submit a case to the Ukrainian court, all the way to eventually helping them apply for the compensation that they're owed." The foundation's team also visits morgues all around Ukraine to look at unidentified remains on the chance that it could be him, she said.
Otago Daily Times
4 days ago
- Health
- Otago Daily Times
Chch man killed in Ukraine
A Christchurch man who died in Ukraine while helping the country's war efforts had earlier said he was living the dream. Twenty-six-year-old Shan-Le Kearns, from Christchurch, died in the past few weeks. He had posted on social media a slogan that translated to 'Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes'. A source in Ukraine told RNZ he had been trying to rescue wounded comrades when his group was hit by drones and explosives. Kearns died attempting to save fellow soldiers, and a Finnish soldier was killed alongside him, the source said. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said it had not yet received any confirmation from Ukraine authorities and was urgently seeking information. However, it said the process may take some time given the situation on the ground in Ukraine. It said no further information could be shared, citing privacy reasons. Elis Kearns told 1News that her son was not on the front line but had been trained in combat so he could help rescue injured soldiers. He had been in Ukraine for two years and was intending to stay for another to fulfil his three-year contract, she said. Kearns is the fourth New Zealander known to have died in Ukraine. Dominic Abelen, 28, was killed on 23 August 2022; Andrew Bagshaw, 47, on 6 January 2023; and Kane Te Tai, 38, on 20 March 2023. The Weatherman Foundation is an American NGO which has been in Ukraine since the start of Russia's full scale invasion of the country. Kyiv-based Lauren Guillaume who is from the foundation's missing-in-action programme said the programme started out delivering humanitarian aid but had developed "to really cover the life of a soldier - all the way from treating the wounded in action both their physical wounds and mental PTSD wounds". The programme also supports the families of the missing in action and killed in action, she said. "Unfortunately these days the difference often between a missing in action and killed in action soldier is whether or not their body can be recovered from the battlefield," she said. "What our team does is investigate to identify their body and we also pursue a court case to help the family try to receive a death certificate in the terrible circumstance if a body cannot be recovered." The only way a family such as Sharn-Le Kearns' family can obtain a death certificate "is either through his physical repatriation or through a court case", she said. "So we are helping them in this process all the way from collecting DNA back in New Zealand, helping them to navigate the Ukrainian judicial system by helping them to collect witness testimonies and submit a case to the Ukrainian court, all the way to eventually helping them apply for the compensation that they're owed." The foundation's team also visits morgues all around Ukraine to look at unidentified remains on the chance that it could be him, she said.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The Syrian entrepreneur gunning to be Ukraine's drone king
Drone warfare has become central to Ukraine's defense against Russia, where cheap, nimble aircraft are being deployed to counter superior firepower. What began as modified hobbyist drones have evolved into a large industry which experts say could position Ukraine as a leading supplier of low-cost weapons for the drone age. Riding that wave is Khaled Alfaiomi, a Syrian-born cybersecurity expert and entrepreneur, operating under a pseudonym for safety reasons. He leads a Kyiv-based maker of long-range surveillance aircraft and short-range loitering munitions: Ukraine has agreed to buy up the company's full output during the war and for up to two years after the conflict ends, Alfaiomi told Semafor in an interview. Even as the war rages, Alfaiomi is focused on expansion. He said the company is building a €1 billion ($1.1 billion) factory in an undisclosed European country, citing security concerns. Unmanned aircraft are viewed in military and government circles with a mixture of awe and FOMO. At the Qatar Economic Forum last week, former CIA Director and retired US General David Petraeus called Ukraine's drone warfare progress 'breathtaking.' A week prior, US President Donald Trump lamented the disparity in cost between Iranian-made kamikaze aircraft — about $40,000 — and what a US contractor recently proposed: $41 million. The Iranian drones are 'very good, and fast and deadly,' Trump said. 'You hide behind a tree and it circles you with fire. You don't have a chance, and the tree comes down also.' Alfaiomi is building capacity to fill the demand for weapons that are both lethal and affordable. His company's main product is a fixed-wing surveillance aircraft with a 260-kilometer (160-mile) range and 4-hour flight time, capable of identifying and tracking targets, and guiding strikes. A kit of three drones and control systems sells to NATO customers for €350,000 — and to Ukraine for €250,000 — with the cameras alone costing €100,000. He said the total price was half the cost of comparable systems from other countries. The company also sells suicide, fixed-winged drones — in packs of 10 — for $20,000 to $65,000, depending on specifications. It developed a model with a 1,500-km range and around a 100-kg payload, which is an indication of how quickly the capabilities are advancing. Alfaiomi didn't plan to be in Ukraine. He said he left Syria after high school, studied in Germany and the US, and worked in the UAE and Ukraine. In 2013, as the Euromaidan protests erupted, he joined demonstrators calling for the ouster of Moscow's ally Viktor Yanukovych. 'I sat with them in the snow and cold. I'm a revolutionary — I'm used to it from Syria,' he said. Many of the protesters he met there ended up in government. He said he was granted Ukrainian citizenship a few months after Yanukovych was deposed. A cybersecurity firm he ran landed contracts with embassies and government agencies. He also invested in EV charging infrastructure, benefiting from Ukraine's decision to waive import taxes on electric vehicles. The war prompted a pivot. Ukraine's government provided strong incentives to spur domestic production of defense equipment: guaranteed margins, purchase commitments, streamlined customs approvals, and military exemptions for factory workers. Alfaiomi said his company now employs 550 people and produces four reconnaissance aircraft a day — and many more of the suicide drones — with over 700 units in service. He is cautious about publicity. He declined to be photographed during our meeting in Abu Dhabi and was vague about his time in the US, worried it could reveal his real identity. In Ukraine, he wears a mask, wary of Russian targeting. (An industry event was hit by an airstrike in 2023). He declined to name the company he leads, but provided video proof of the production facility and documents related to the drone's specs. The drone revolution is making warfare cheaper, faster, and more precise, flattening the battlefield. There's no shortage of footage online showing soldiers attempting, in vain, to escape suicide drones. They are legitimate targets — there's no moral argument against killing combatants during war — but the capabilities raise concerns that human restraint in conflict is eroding: Our impulse for mercy, exhaustion, or compromise are what often bring wars to a halt. In a future shaped by AI-driven autonomous weapons, conflicts can become perpetual. The advantage will lie for a period with those who master the technology, but as it proliferates, it could increase instability. Ukraine is currently ahead, thanks to wartime urgency, and US and European support. But this edge will likely be short-lived. Most of the tech isn't proprietary. Others will catch up. As Semafor columnist Omar Al-Ubaydli argues, proliferation of the technology may create mutual deterrence, and hence more stability. He writes that the best defense against swarms of unmanned systems is a credible offensive deterrent. Air defenses alone won't stop precision attacks: 'Deterrence by capability is the rational option,' he writes. First-person view drones are driving a military revolution, argues US Army Officer Antonio Salinas in a War on the Rocks essay. 'It feels as if there are a thousand snipers in the sky.' Ukraine's use of drones has had a multiplier effect on its combat power, and is changing the nature of warfare, The New York Times' C.J. Chivers reports from the frontlines.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Despite Kremlin claims, 82% of Russian-speaking Ukrainians view Russia negatively, poll shows
A vast majority of Russian-speaking Ukrainians — those how primarily speak Russian at home — view Russia negatively, according to a survey published on May 27 by Kyiv-based think tank Razumkov Center in cooperation with the Kyiv Security Forum. The poll, conducted between April 24 and May 4, 2025, surveyed 2,021 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in territories under Ukrainian government control. According to the survey, only 11% of respondents said they primarily speak Russian at home. Of those, 82% said they had a negative view of Russia. The results come as Russia continues to invoke the supposed plight of Russian-speaking communities to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But the data suggests this narrative is widely rejected by those it claims to defend. As recently as May 23, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed Moscow "cannot leave" Russian-speaking residents in Kyiv-controlled areas and would "protect them." Only 13% of Russian-speaking respondents maintain a favorable opinion of Russia. By contrast, admiration for Western countries remains strong — 79% of respondents view France positively, and 75% feel the same about the United Kingdom. The survey also found that 42% of respondents identified the European model of social development as the most attractive. Just 6% expressed a preference for the Russian model, further undermining Kremlin rhetoric about cultural and political alignment. Join our community Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight. Support Us Support for Ukraine's military remains resilient. Some 81.5% of those surveyed said they trust the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a reflection of sustained public confidence despite ongoing Russian attacks. Only 14% expressed distrust. Before the war, many of the cities now devastated by Russian attacks and occupation — Mariupol, Kharkiv, Sievierodonetsk — were predominantly Russian-speaking. Rather than protection, these regions have endured mass displacement, forced deportations, and indiscriminate bombardment by Russian forces. The war has also catalyzed a national shift in language use. According to a 2024 Rating Group poll, 70% of Ukrainians now speak exclusively or primarily in Ukrainian at home — up from 50% in 2015 and 46% in 2006. In 2014, just after Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea, a separate Rating Group poll showed that 56% of Ukrainians already opposed granting Russian the status of a second state language. Read also: Sanctions on Russia are working, Ukraine just needs more We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
