Why North Carolina is more valuable than you think in college football's future

New York Times

6 days ago

No power-conference program residing outside the Big Ten and SEC has a chance to boost its financial portfolio and valuation in the coming years more than the University of North Carolina.
Based on its current football revenue within the ACC, the Tar Heels' three-year average ranks 37th among Power 4 schools. But when The Athletic calculated our best estimates for how much college football teams would sell for if they could be sold, North Carolina soared up to No. 26 overall with a projected price of $572 million — fourth in the ACC behind Florida State, Clemson and Miami and ahead of several teams in the richer SEC and Big Ten. The reasons start with location, demographics and future earning potential, not on-field prowess … or the hiring of Bill Belichick.
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Recent Big Ten and SEC expansions leave North Carolina as the most populated state without a team in either conference. Whispers around both conferences consider the Tar Heels as the one school both would have strong interest in acquiring if they were to expand again. North Carolina by geography and heritage is a Southern state, and Charlotte serves as the SEC Network's headquarters. The Big Ten no longer is a Midwestern conference with schools located on the West Coast, the New York metro area and the Mid-Atlantic.
Although North Carolina is an ACC charter member, the university sought legal guidance and strategy when Florida State and Clemson sued the conference over its grant-of-rights agreement, which expires in 2036. (The lawsuits were resolved this spring.) In an email exchange between UNC Board of Trustees chairman John Preyer and former trustee Chuck Duckett, which was obtained by The Athletic, the two power brokers opined about UNC's future should the ACC's case disintegrate.
'I firmly believe that 'protecting UNC financially' requires us to explore every available avenue to depart a conference that is in financial decline and is primarily serving its bottom tier schools,' Preyer wrote. 'While Carolina once led the ACC, that time is long gone. The current commissioner (Jim Phillips) is not serving our best interests and simply 'asking' for transparency will not get us anywhere but would be a welcome change.'
'We have a landing spot if things blow up,' Duckett wrote, adding: 'Let FSU and Clemson pay the attorneys and see what happens. … We all learn via their expense.'
As part of the ACC's settlements with Florida State and Clemson, league exit fees drop by $18 million annually until reaching $75 million in the 2031 fiscal year. While still costly, $75 million is more manageable, especially with the specter of Big Ten and SEC revenue on the horizon. The Big Ten, for instance, budgeted around $75 million in disbursals to its vested members during the 2025 fiscal year, which concluded on June 30. Its media rights agreements expire after the 2029-30 sports season, which could coincide with North Carolina or other ACC schools considering a less-expensive jump. The SEC's rights agreements are in place through 2033-34.
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There are other potential options for North Carolina, such as happily staying put in the conference it helped build or exploring a divorce alongside like-minded ACC members. Although it is not a football powerhouse — the Heels rank 38th among power-conference teams in wins the last decade and haven't had a top-10 finish since 1997 — North Carolina will end up a financial winner in whatever scenario presents itself after 2030.
Should the Big Ten open its doors to the Tar Heels or any other program, it's unclear how much money those programs would receive in their first six years. The league has operated differently among its six newest members, which greatly impacted their projected valuations.
The Big Ten brought in USC and UCLA as fully vested members, which led to both earning valuations beyond their current financial profile. In the 2024 fiscal year, which coincided with its final season as a Pac-12 member, UCLA reported $19.93 million in media rights revenue, according to figures obtained by The Athletic through an open-records request. With a $75 million Big Ten payment in fiscal 2025, UCLA's $55 million increase in media rights could help erase a $51 million shortfall the athletic department reported as a Pac-12 member. USC, which is a private university, is not subject to open-records laws but would earn the same revenue.
However, neither Maryland and Rutgers (which became Big Ten members in 2014) nor Oregon and Washington (which joined alongside USC and UCLA in 2024) saw day-one vested membership. For six years, Maryland and Rutgers collected media rights stipends commensurate with what they would have received from their previous conferences. The Big Ten allowed both schools to borrow against future earnings, and they finally will receive whole shares starting in 2027. Maryland, which took in more than $125 million from the Big Ten in grants and loans from 2014 to 2020, was financially strapped after leaving the ACC and still struggles to catch up with its Big Ten brethren. Maryland reported the lowest revenue among the holdover Big Ten public schools in 2024.
'Most people didn't know the dire financial straits of the program,' former Maryland president Wallace Loh told The Athletic last year. Loh described the Big Ten's financial package as 'one of the largest contracts ever, to have Maryland join the Big Ten.'
Rutgers, which borrowed $48 million against future earnings, did not receive the same financial assistance.
Oregon and Washington earn media half-shares before becoming vested members in 2030, which aligns with a new Big Ten media rights deal. However, those schools were in strong revenue situations preceding their Big Ten acceptance, which is why their valuations soar beyond most Big Ten colleagues. Oregon enjoys one of college sports' greatest brands, and its close financial relationship with Nike keeps the department fiscally vibrant. Washington will borrow from the Big Ten against future earnings, but in fiscal 2024 it generated $190 million before it left the Pac-12.
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As for the SEC, it disbursed around $53 million to each of its 14 members following the 2024 fiscal year, plus $27.5 million to both Texas and Oklahoma to provide a financial salve and help cover their Big 12 exit fees. Hypothetically, the SEC could do the same for North Carolina or any other potential addition.
Either way, North Carolina looks like a future winner, no matter how Belichick or his eventual successor performs on the field.