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Trump slaps 25% tariff on ‘friend' India

Trump slaps 25% tariff on ‘friend' India

Hans India3 days ago
Washington: US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced that 'friend' India will be paying a 25 per cent tariff from August 1. He also noted that New Delhi will have to pay additional penalty due to its oil and military purchase from Russia in the face of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump noted that despite being friends, India and US have done relatively little business. "Remember, while India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country," he wrote.
The US President added, 'Also, they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia's largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE — ALL THINGS NOT GOOD!
INDIA WILL THEREFORE BE PAYING A TARIFF OF 25%, PLUS A PENALTY FOR THE ABOVE, STARTING ON AUGUST FIRST. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER. MAGA!'
In a separate post, Trump said that the US has a "massive trade deficit" with India.
Last week, US Senator Lindsey Graham had warned that Trump would impose stern tariffs on countries that continue to purchase oil from Russia, name-dropping India, China and Brazil.
He said that these countries purchase about 80 per cent of cheap Russian oil which keeps Vladimir "Putin's war machine going". "President Trump is going to put a 100 per cent tariff on all those countries, punishing them for helping Putin," he added.
NATO chief Mark Rutte had also warned countries engaging in trade and business with Russia, warning of 100 per cent tariffs and more sanctions, focusing on India, China and Brazil as he called on three countries to halt trade. The announcement comes after days of suspense over the tariff rate that the US President would impose on India. Earlier on Tuesday, Donald Trump had hinted that he may hit India with a 20-25 per cent tariff rate. However, he added that nothing had been finalised. He also called India a "good friend" while reiterating that New Delhi levies more tariff on the US than "almost any other country". 'India has been a good friend, but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country…
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UK deal shows how much India will — or won't — bend on tariffs
UK deal shows how much India will — or won't — bend on tariffs

Time of India

time24 minutes ago

  • Time of India

UK deal shows how much India will — or won't — bend on tariffs

India is gradually breaking down barriers by signing trade deals and lowering tariffs while President Trump is pushing the US inward, erecting a wall of tariff to the world's largest import market. On Wed, he announced that India would face 25% tariffs from August plus an unspecified penalty for buying Russian military equipment and oil. Then came the executive order on the new tariff rates. This may not have come as a total surprise but it's a blow for India, which sees gaining a competitive edge in the US market as key—not just for boosting exports of electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery, footwear, and textiles, but also for positioning itself as a global manufacturing hub for exporting to large markets like the US, EU, and UK. And, thus, lowering that 25% tariff rate to a level that is not just lower than China (35%) but also more competitive than its peers in emerging markets is crucial to its ambition to seize the opportunity presented by the West's disillusionment with China. Negotiators will no doubt be headed back to the table in pursuit of that elusive breakthrough, and India could manage to settle on a lower number. Trump made a similar threat against Japan and gave it a reprieve later. So far, the lowest rate secured is the UK's 10% and even allies such as the EU and Japan have only managed 15%. In the emerging markets of Asia, the Philippines and Indonesia got 19% versus Vietnam's 20%, and that includes conditional details and extra levy on Chinese transshipment. Beyond the headline reciprocal tariff rate, India is also trying to gain concessions on sectoral tariffs, from auto parts to pharma, as well as limiting the fallout to its participation in BRICS and secondary Russian oil sanctions. Trade Tangle: India's tariffs could still settle somewhere close to what Southeast Asian countries got — 19% to 20% with caveats — but this would still be only a 6-7% reduction from Trump's initial 26% threat With a population of 1.4bn, which is projected to grow to 1.6bn by 2040, India's domestic market is a big prize for American exporters. The two big sectors where Trump wants concessions are autos and agriculture. In the auto sector, high tariffs (such as 110% on completely built internal combustion engines) have kept imports low. Only 15,000 cars are imported into India annually versus a domestic market of 4.35m passenger cars. The recent India-UK deal shows that while India is willing to lower tariffs, the quotas remain relatively small in sectors such as autos and limited to luxury segments where Indian players are uncompetitive. This approach largely protects the domestic auto market. Trump is likely to demand tariff reciprocity on autos if India seeks a deal similar to what the US has with the EU or Japan. Could India make him an offer he can't refuse? Perhaps it could offer to lower tariffs on high-end cars that will not upset domestic car players but allow for more import of American cars. Even this seems very unlikely, going by the details of the UK deal. In other words, the US is unlikely to pry open the Indian auto market. Agriculture, which is seen as a red line in India, is another sticking point. Despite being a potentially large market, Indian imports from the US are primarily restricted to fish and nuts. India's rural vote bank (40% of the labour force is employed in farming) makes farming reform difficult and increasing market access for US soybeans, corn and canola oil will be highly contentious. India did not budge on farming and dairy even in the UK trade deal. What it can do is propose to shift imports from countries such as Indonesia for palm oil to US canola oil even while keeping aggressive liberalisation off the cards. Overall, a big bold promise of more purchases of US energy, defence equipment, aircraft, and even some agricultural products is much easier to do than opening its farm sector but doing so would mean reshuffling existing imports to favour the US at the expense of other competitors. Can India have its cake and eat it too? The EU and Japan deals offer a sobering reality check. Both got a reprieve but not without concessions, especially in the auto sector. South Korea and Japan didn't have to open up their agriculture sector but got a deal at 15% in return for purchases and investment pledges. India's tariffs could still settle somewhere close to what Southeast Asian countries got — 19% to 20% with caveats, which would be only a 6-7% reduction from Trump's initial 26% threat. India has always been a coveted market, given its unrivalled and rapidly growing domestic demand. And a more transactional US under President Trump is increasingly insistent on reciprocal market access. India could still beat Southeast Asian countries at the tariff game, but this comes at a price. We will have to see whether Prime Minister Modi is willing to take that gamble. So far, it does not look like it. The UK deal shows that India's policy risk appetite has risen but it will do so at its own pace. Facebook Twitter Linkedin Email Disclaimer Views expressed above are the author's own.

US penalty risk on Russian oil may add ₹9-11 bn to India's import bill
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Business Standard

time24 minutes ago

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US penalty risk on Russian oil may add ₹9-11 bn to India's import bill

India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russian oil, which accounted for less than 0.2 per cent of India's imports before the war, now makes up 35-40 per cent of the country's crude intake, helping reduce overall energy import costs, keep retail fuel prices in check, and contain inflation. The influx of discounted Russian crude also enabled India to refine the oil and export petroleum products, including to countries that have imposed sanctions on direct imports from Russia. The twin strategy of Indian oil companies is posting record profits. This is, however, now under threat after US President Donald Trump announced a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods plus an unspecified penalty for buying Russian oil and weapons. The 25 per cent tariff has since been notified but the penalty is yet to be specified. Coming within days of the European Union banning imports of refined products derived from Russian-origin crude, this presents a double whammy for Indian refiners. Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modeling) at global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler termed this as "a squeeze from both ends". EU sanctions - effective from January 2026 - may force Indian refiners to segment crude intake on one side, and on the other, the US tariff threat raises the possibility of secondary sanctions that would directly hit the shipping, insurance, and financing lifelines underpinning India's Russian oil trade. "Together, these measures sharply curtail India's crude procurement flexibility, raise compliance risk, and introduce significant cost uncertainty," he said. Last fiscal, India spent over USD 137 billion on import of crude oil, which is refined into fuels like petrol and diesel. For refiners like Reliance Industries Ltd and Nayara Energy - who collectively account for a bulk (more than 50 per cent in 2025) of the 1.72.0 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude imports into India - the challenge is acute. While Nayara is backed by Russian oil giant Rosneft and has been sanctioned by the EU last month, Reliance has been a big fuel exporter to Europe. As one of the world's largest diesel exporters - and with total refined product exports to Europe averaging around 200,000 bpd in 2024 and 185,000 bpd so far in 2025 - Reliance has extensively utilised discounted Russian crude to boost refining margins over the past two years, according to Kpler. "The introduction of strict origin-tracking requirements now compels Reliance to either curtail its intake of Russian feedstock, potentially affecting cost competitiveness, or reroute Russian-linked products to non-EU markets," Ritolia said. However, Reliance's dual-refinery structure - a domestic-focused unit and an export-oriented complex - offers strategic flexibility. It can allocate non-Russian crude to its export-oriented refinery and continue meeting EU compliance standards, while processing Russian barrels at the domestic unit for other markets. Although redirecting diesel exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, or Latin America is operationally feasible, such a shift would involve narrower margins, longer voyage times, and increased demand variability, making it commercially less optimal, he said. Kpler data shows a notable decline in India's Russian crude imports in July (1.8 million bpd versus 2.1 million bpd in June), aligning with seasonal refinery maintenance and weaker monsoon-driven demand. However, the drop is more pronounced among state-run refiners, likely reflecting heightened compliance sensitivity amid mounting geopolitical risk. Private refiners, who account for over 50 per cent of Russian crude intake, have also begun reducing exposure, with fresh procurement diversification underway this week as concerns over US sanctions intensify. Ritolia said replacing Russian crude isn't plug-and-play. The Middle East is the logical fallback, but has constraints - contractual lock-in, pricing rigidity, and a mismatch in crude quality that affects product yield and refinery configuration. "The risk here is not just supply but profitability. Refiners will face higher feedstock costs, and in the case of complex units optimized for (Russian) Urals-like blends, even margins will be under pressure," he said. On the future course, Kpler believes India's complex private refiners - backed by robust trading arms and flexible configurations - are expected to pivot toward non-Russian barrels from the Middle East, West Africa, Latin America, or even the US, where economics permits. This shift, while operationally feasible, will be gradual and strategically aligned with evolving regulatory frameworks, contract structures, and margin dynamics. However, replacing Russian barrels in full is no easy feat - logistically daunting, economically painful, and geopolitically fraught. Supply substitution may be feasible on paper, but remains fraught in practice. "Financially, the implications are massive. Assuming a USD 5 per barrel discount lost across 1.8 million bpd, India could see its import bill swell by USD 911 billion annually. 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