Trump-Putin face-to-face meeting could happen very soon
He spoke to Putin by telephone today (August 6). Trump also says that he intends to follow up on his meeting with Putin with a three-way meeting between himself, Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
We have no official word from Russia, but the Trump announcement is in line with predictions coming from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that there will be 'big surprises.' We have no readout from either side on the terms discussed between the parties, only that there were two subjects: Ukraine and US-Russia strategic cooperation.
It may be that the Russians are uncertain about how much political or strategic support they can expect from China, suggesting maybe the Chinese leadership is in flux.
Likewise, we also know, at least in part, that preliminary talks took place between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Lavrov and between Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu, acting as a mediator with Trump, and Putin. The Russians have promised a readout of the conversation, although I am not sure it will be enlightening.
Certainly, this is a very big development, but it carries plenty of risk for all sides, especially for Trump. The US president will need to control Zelensky, a difficult task because Zelensky has nowhere to go, as he cannot easily make significant concessions. Washington allegedly wants to get rid of him because he is an obstacle to a deal, so we can't rule out a melodrama involving Zelensky's status.
Meanwhile, Trump slapped India with a 50% tariff, in part because of its purchases of sanctioned Russian oil. This is a mistake because India will have to fight back and the US will find itself in a position of strengthening the military alignment between India and Russia.
Ideologically, it is also counterproductive, as India is a strong democratic country and the US is treating it as a pariah. India will likely quickly make a deal to buy Russia's new Su-57 fighter jets instead of the F-35, something that has been trending anyway.
There are other potential 'disrupters.' One potential is the UK. I doubt the UK and French, along with Estonia and some others (maybe not the Germans) will be enthusiastic in supporting a brokered deal on Ukraine.
The Russians report the UK is planning a so-called shadow-fleet incident (probably in the Baltic or Sea of Finland) that will trigger a UK and potential NATO response, forcing the US to support a hard anti-Russian position. So some sort of provocation can't be ruled out, notwithstanding whether the Russians have real intelligence on UK planning, or if they are faking it.
The 'shadow fleet' are ships carrying Russian oil that are not insured by the London exchange. However, other insurance instruments are available in the maritime trade, so the terminology is intended to characterize these ships in a pejorative manner and does not describe the status of these tankers.
Meanwhile, the Estonians and Finns have attempted to thwart the transit of these tankers and have tried to pull them into port for 'inspections.' The Russian Navy is now escorting them, putting a stop to these provocations. More yet may happen.
There are many other wild cards, including moves that Ukraine may make. The last time there was a ceasefire that stopped flights of aircraft and drones, the Ukrainians kept up attacks anyway on Russian territory.
There are plenty of other possibilities. Even so, it looks like the diplomatic track may, at last, be leading to concrete results in ending the conflict in Ukraine.
Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared in his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.
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