Fourth of July forecast: See where weather could disrupt fireworks, travel

USA Today

02-07-2025

Rain and potential thunderstorms are in store for Americans in several states for the Fourth of July, while severe storms are expected to snarl one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, forecasters said.
A record 72.2 million Americans are expected to travel between Saturday, June 28, and Sunday, July 6, according to AAA. The days leading up to the holiday are expected to bring showers, heavy rain and thunderstorms to a stretch from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, which could cause localized flash flooding, the National Weather Service said on July 2. Other storm systems are expected in the northern High Plains and the Southwest.
The pre-holiday stormy weather will give way to a marginal risk of thunderstorms in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Independence Day, according to the Storm Prediction Center. The center of the country and southeast could see rain and some storms that day.
But there's good news: About two-thirds of the country will have clear weather perfect for viewing fireworks shows on the Fourth, AccuWeather forecasters said.
"Portions of the Midwest, Southeast and interior Southwest stand the most likely chance for some disruptive downpours and potent thunderstorm activity on Friday, July 4," AccuWeather Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
Traveling for the holiday? See where storms are coming
Thunderstorms are expected to form in parts of North Carolina on July 2, while heavy rainfall will impact areas over the Mid-Atlantic and Eastern Gulf Coast, the National Weather Service said. Torrential downpours and heavy winds are expected along a stretch from New Jersey to Florida, AccuWeather reported.
Meanwhile, the storms impacting the Midwest are expected to bring hail and strong wind gusts on July 2, according to the outlet.
On July 3, showers and thunderstorms will impact Florida through the morning of the Fourth, the weather service said. The storm system in the Midwest will shift its focus to the Northeast on July 3, bringing strong wind gusts that could even cause isolated power outages, AccuWeather warned.
Fourth of July forecast
The weather will be clear and dry in the Great Lakes region and Northeast and most of the West on the Fourth of July, AccuWeather reported. Heat and humidity with temperatures in the 90s are forecast across several states.
"It's been very humid the past several weeks, but we'll finally be in store for a more pleasant airmass, just in time for the Fourth of July," the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York, said.
The most likely areas to experience hazardous weather on the holiday are along a corridor from northern Kansas up through the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula, the outlet said. Those storms could bring damaging hail, wind gusts, flash flooding, and possibly some isolated tornadoes.
Into the holiday weekend, the storms could produce flash flooding, the weather service in Duluth, Minnesota, said.
Forecasters watching disturbance off Southeast coast
Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic has a medium chance of forming into a cyclone in the next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It could turn into a tropical or subtropical depression by the holiday weekend, and is bringing the chance of heavy rainfall across the Southeast, particularly along the west-central Florida coast, forecasters said. The system doesn't pose a direct threat to Florida in the coming days, but could bring heavy rain, gusty winds and rip currents, the Florida Department of Emergency Management said.
"Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.
Contributing: USA TODAY Network-Florida