ESPN predicts win totals, playoff and championship odds for Alabama football in 2025
Alabama football will open the 2025 season with a new quarterback and new weapons at skill positions, including additions to its receiver room to complement star sophomore Ryan Williams and senior Germie Bernard.
On defense, Alabama will be replacing Jihaad Campbell and Que Robinson at linebacker, plus defensive tackle Tim Smith and safety Malachi Moore.
With Ty Simpson the favorite at quarterback and freshmen like Lotzeir Brooks and Derek Meadows at receiver along with Miami transfer Isaiah Horton, the Crimson Tide begin Year 2 under Kalen DeBoer looking to put a disappointing finish to its 2024 season behind them.
On Tuesday, ESPN unveiled its first Football Power Index ratings (FPI) for the 2025 season. The FPI ratings are ESPN's best model for predicting a team's record, its chances of winning its conference and reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff and national championship game. FPI also tracks teams' strength of schedule, plus individual ratings for offense, defense and special teams.
Alabama landed at No. 3 in ESPN's first FPI with a 24.2 overall rating. In national championship odds based on FPI, the Texas Longhorns, Georgia Bulldogs and Ohio State Buckeyes were the only teams ahead of the Crimson Tide.
Here's a breakdown of where Alabama landed in the FPI.
ESPN FPI projections for Alabama football
Projected wins: 9.6
Chances of reaching CFP: 66.2 percent (4th)
Chances of winning SEC: 17.2 percent (3rd)
Chances of reaching national championship game: 20.2 percent (4th)
Chances of winning national championship: 10.4 percent (4th)
Offensive rating: 11.8 (3rd)
Defense rating: 11.3 (3rd)
Strength of schedule ranking: 10th
Alabama will again have one of the toughest schedules in the nation in 2025, with road trips to Georgia in Athens on Sept. 27 and its regular season finale at Auburn (Nov. 29). The Crimson Tide will face LSU and Tennessee in Tuscaloosa and will open the season in Tallahassee against Florida State on Aug. 30.
What is ESPN FPI?
ESPN explains FPI this way:
"Just to refresh our memories, the FPI is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team's strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team's odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title."
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