
A Study Reaffirms Opinion Trading on Platforms like Probo is a Game of Skill
Gaming Industry Booms : India's online gaming market, valued at USD 4 billion in 2023, is projected to reach USD 7.6 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 14.5%—with real-money games accounting for over 80% of the market share.
Opinion Trading on the Rise : With nearly 50 million users and annual transactions exceeding USD 6 billion, opinion trading is gaining momentum—yet misconceptions persist.
New Study Breaks Myths: Using empirical testing and real-world platform data, the report concludes that opinion trading is a skill-dominant format, not governed by chance.
A study conducted by Evam Law & Policy has concluded that opinion trading is a game of skill. The Question of Skill in Opinion Trading Study, draws upon gameplay data from three leading Indian opinion trading platforms to present robust statistical and behavioral evidence that opinion trading demands informed decision-making, cognitive adaptability, and strategic execution. This study is backed by some reputed personalities including IIT Delhi Professor Dr. Saptarshi Mukherjee, Dean of Vinayaka Mission's Law School Dr. Ananth Padmanabhan, and has been reviewed by Dr. Justice Balbir Singh Chauhan - retired as a justice of the Supreme Court of India, and former Chairman of the 21st Law Commission of India.
This comes at a time when the Indian gaming industry is seeing exponential growth. With over 568 million gamers, India is the second-largest gaming community in the world. Real Money Games (RMGs) dominate this space, and new formats like opinion trading have already reached impressive scale, USD 120 million in projected revenues for FY 2024–25 and backing from over 35 global investors.
Yet, the report observes misconceptions that persist around opinion trading, often equating it to games of chance or speculative betting. To address this, the study applied three key statistical tests commonly used to determine skill presence in online games: Key Findings from the study: Persistence of Skill : Players who performed well in one month continued to perform well in subsequent months across platforms. For example, on Probo, win rate and ROI correlations across months showed p-values less than 10^-100, indicating extraordinarily strong consistency—something not possible in games of chance.
: Players who performed well in one month continued to perform well in subsequent months across platforms. For example, on Probo, win rate and ROI correlations across months showed p-values less than 10^-100, indicating extraordinarily strong consistency—something not possible in games of chance. Exemplary Skill : Statistical distributions showed heavy right-skewness, suggesting the presence of a small group of highly skilled users consistently outperforming others. For example, on an opinion trading platform, 12.7% of users exceeded a 79%-win rate, while a chance-based simulation showed only 0.01% doing the same. A Z-test confirmed this difference to be statistically significant.
: Statistical distributions showed heavy right-skewness, suggesting the presence of a small group of highly skilled users consistently outperforming others. For example, on an opinion trading platform, 12.7% of users exceeded a 79%-win rate, while a chance-based simulation showed only 0.01% doing the same. A Z-test confirmed this difference to be statistically significant. Learning Curve & Experience Gap : Players demonstrably improved their performance with experience. On Probo, median win rates increased with the number of events played, with correlation tests rejecting the hypothesis of no learning. Similar trends were observed on the other 2 opinion trading platforms.
: Players demonstrably improved their performance with experience. On Probo, median win rates increased with the number of events played, with correlation tests rejecting the hypothesis of no learning. Similar trends were observed on the other 2 opinion trading platforms. Strategic Use of Exit Tools Drives Higher Win Rates : Players who actively used exit strategies—choosing to close positions early based on real-time market shifts—secured a 70% win rate, compared to just 42% among those who passively waited for event outcomes. To summarize, players with exit strategies won 70% of the time, vs just 42% among those without. This demonstrates the importance of active, tactical engagement in opinion trading.
: Players who actively used exit strategies—choosing to close positions early based on real-time market shifts—secured a 70% win rate, compared to just 42% among those who passively waited for event outcomes. Experience Leads to Sophisticated Market Behavior : The study also highlights that users with >250 trades placed 2X more strategic price-point trades than beginners, showing nuanced market behavior. This reflects a deeper understanding of market dynamics, as seasoned players diversified positions across fluctuating price bands to hedge risk or capitalize on market inefficiencies.
: The study also highlights that users with >250 trades placed 2X more strategic price-point trades than beginners, showing nuanced market behavior. This reflects a deeper understanding of market dynamics, as seasoned players diversified positions across fluctuating price bands to hedge risk or capitalize on market inefficiencies. Strategic Behavior: Skilled players were found to diversify trades, hedge across price points, and time their exits. For instance, users placing orders across 12+ price points recovered over 80% of their investment on average, reflecting active market reading, analysis and informed decision making. Many players also seem to use a combination of these strategies, with them placing multiple orders and exiting before the conclusion of the event. Such players on Probo have a win rate of 63%, again demonstrating their strategic behavior to maximize returns.
About the findings of the report, Ashish Garg, Co-founder and CTO of Probo, said, 'This report is a significant step forward in establishing a data-backed understanding of opinion trading. For years, we've seen firsthand how our top users display a deep grasp of probability, real-time decision-making, and strategic foresight. We're glad that independent researchers have validated what our internal data has long shown—success in opinion trading is built on skill, not luck."
Shashank Reddy, Managing Partner - Evam Law & Policy shared, "Opinion trading sits at the intersection of market-based reasoning and digital gameplay. This study provides much-needed empirical clarity to an emerging format that has often been misunderstood. The evidence shows that these platforms reward strategy, experience, deep knowledge, and skill development. Importantly, this study offers a crucial policy contribution amid ongoing debates over the legal classification of emerging digital games. Under Indian law, games of skill enjoy protection and are treated differently from games of chance. By rigorously applying the "predominance test', recognized by Indian courts, the study affirms that opinion trading falls firmly within the skill-dominant category.'
As the Indian gaming sector evolves, this study offers a foundation for nuanced regulation, informed public discourse, and better industry practices.
To access the full study- click here
Disclaimer: This article is sponsored content curated by HT Syndication. The inputs and details accounted for in the article do not necessarily reflect those of HT, and HT does not endorse or assume any responsibility for the information provided.
Want to get your story featured as above? click here!
First Published Date: 20 May, 15:17 IST
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Time of India
28 minutes ago
- Time of India
HC tells CBSE to rectify student records by updating official DoB
New Delhi: Delhi High Court has emphasised the "presumption of correctness" attached to official birth certificates and directed the Central Board of Secondary Education ( CBSE ) to amend a student's academic records accordingly. A division bench comprising Justices Subramonium Prasad and Harish V Shankar, in a recent order, underlined the "imminent need" to ensure consistency across official documents. This, the court said, not only affirms the accuracy of personal details in public records but also protects a citizen's identity—of which the date of birth is a crucial component. "A citizen of this country is entitled to a true and correct narration of all necessary and relevant particulars in the public documents that pertain to them. CBSE is a record keeper of considerable importance," the court observed, while dismissing CBSE's appeal against a single judge's order to correct the date of birth in certificates issued in 1999. The bench noted that documents like official birth certifiscates, issued by a competent authority, carry a statutory presumption of correctness under Indian law. It further remarked that CBSE had provided "no cogent reason" to disregard the birth certificate in this case. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Simple. Clean. Solitaire Play Solitaire Download Undo "Accordingly, the Board is expected to take due notice of such statutory public documents and effect consequential corrections in its records," the bench directed. The court reiterated that the matriculation certificate is widely regarded as "unassailable proof of date of birth", and citizens are entitled to have all public documents reflect accurate and consistent information. The plea before the court involved a student seeking rectification of her date of birth in CBSE records based on a birth certificate issued by the Greater Chennai Corporation. The HC noted that the genuineness of the birth certificate had not been disputed. It also observed that discrepancies between CBSE record and other official documents such as the individual's passport could cause serious complications, including for employment or immigration. In its defense, CBSE argued that the request for correction was filed beyond the time limit prescribed under its examination bye-laws, and that it no longer retained relevant records more than a decade later. However, the single judge had earlier ruled that the incorrect date of birth in the CBSE records appeared to result from a genuine mistake—not a clerical or typographical error. Finding no fault in that conclusion, the HC upheld the single judge's decision and dismissed the CBSE's appeal. Follow more information on Air India plane crash in Ahmedabad here . Get real-time live updates on rescue operations and check full list of passengers onboard AI 171 .


Time of India
31 minutes ago
- Time of India
India, 18 others abstain; 149 back UN resolution for Gaza ceasefire
Representative image (Photo: IANS) A UN general assembly (UNGA) resolution seeking an immediate, unconditional and lasting ceasefire in Gaza was adopted with overwhelming support, as 149 countries voted in favour. India was among the 19 that abstained, even as key American allies like the UK, Australia and Japan voted in favour. The US, Israel and 10 other countries voted against. A similar resolution for a permanent Gaza ceasefire in the security council last week was vetoed by the US. Since Hamas' terrorist strikes on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent Israeli action leading to the present situation, India had twice voted in favour of UNGA Gaza ceasefire resolutions - first in December 2023 and again in the same month a year later for immediate and permanent ceasefire. The development comes just over a month after India's military conflict with Pakistan, which again underscored the significance of Israel for Indian defence. India used Israeli drones to strike deep inside Pakistan and used its air defence systems to repel retaliatory strikes.


Hindustan Times
36 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Kin back home fear for safety of J&K students stranded in Iran
The Israeli attack over Iran has triggered panic across the student community studying in Iran and their families back in India, including J&K, with the majority of them demanding evacuation from the region. Hundreds of students of Jammu and Kashmir are studying in various universities and educational institutions of Iran and are scared after Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian soil and killed several of its top military leaders, including the chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Salami. The students said that the attack happened around 3 to 3.30 am during the night triggering chaos and panic. Tabiya Zahra, a 2nd year MBBS student from Kashmir currently studying in Tehran University, said that they were awoken by the sounds during the night which they first thought were thunder strikes. 'We were sleeping when we heard sounds like there were thunder strikes but soon there was chaos. The university authorities told us to go to the basement as these were attacks. Everybody is scared and tension is palpable,' Zahra told HT from Tehran. She said there was panic among the 40 Indian students, majority of them from Kashmir, who were staying in the dormitory she was in. She said that there were hundreds of other international students from India like them studying in various universities of Iran and they want to go home. 'Please evacuate us as soon as possible. There is tension and our families back home are also scared as there is uncertainty. There is also fear that the communication may get snapped as many SIM cards of students are not working any more,' she said. The students said that they were provided emails from the Indian embassy in Iran in which they had to provide the information of individual students. 'So far there has been no forward movement as the air spaces are closed,' she said. Badraan Jeelani, a resident of Srinagar whose sister is doing MBBS in Tehran University, said that they want safe return of their loved ones. 'They were in panic as the blasts happened close to a building near their university. We got to know about the situation at around 4 am. Everybody is worried. We are also in touch with some other parents. We want the Government of India to start some evacuation process so that our loved ones return home safely,' Jeelani said. Meanwhile, the Jammu and Kashmir Students Association (JKSA) has written to the Union Minister for External Affairs, Dr S Jaishankar, seeking urgent intervention for the evacuation of hundreds of Kashmiri students stranded in Iran amid the attacks. The association expressed its concern regarding the dire situation faced by hundreds of Kashmiri students currently studying in Iran, following the unprecedented escalation in hostilities between Iran and Israel. 'This volatile security environment has left thousands of Indian students, the majority of them from Kashmir valley, extremely vulnerable and exposed to immediate danger. These students had travelled to Iran to pursue professional education, particularly MBBS, due to the country's economically viable academic infrastructure. Now, they find themselves in the middle of an active military zone, fearful for their lives,' wrote Nasir Khuehami, national convener of the JKSA. According to Khuehami, there are some 1,500 students from Kashmir studying in Iran. He said many of these students are enrolled in colleges and universities that are situated close to vital military installations and strategic sites while some students are even located in cities where direct Israeli airstrikes have been reported. 'Numerous students have contacted the Indian Embassy in Tehran seeking support, relocation, or evacuation. However, they have not received any reassuring response or concrete information about what the next steps will be. They remain in a state of confusion and despair, with no clarity about evacuation plans, safety protocols, or emergency assistance,' he said. The association requested the Ministry of External Affairs to establish dedicated and responsive communication lines between Indian students in Iran and the Indian Embassy in Tehran. 'We also request the formulation and immediate preparedness of a comprehensive evacuation plan. If the situation continues to escalate or critical infrastructure comes under sustained attack, timely evacuation could be the difference between life and death,' the JKSA said. 'We hope this urgent appeal will receive your immediate and compassionate attention. The students from Jammu and Kashmir studying in Iran are our responsibility. Their safe return home must be a national priority,' it said.