A Study Reaffirms Opinion Trading on Platforms like Probo is a Game of Skill

Hindustan Times

20-05-2025

Gaming Industry Booms : India's online gaming market, valued at USD 4 billion in 2023, is projected to reach USD 7.6 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 14.5%—with real-money games accounting for over 80% of the market share.
Opinion Trading on the Rise : With nearly 50 million users and annual transactions exceeding USD 6 billion, opinion trading is gaining momentum—yet misconceptions persist.
New Study Breaks Myths: Using empirical testing and real-world platform data, the report concludes that opinion trading is a skill-dominant format, not governed by chance.
A study conducted by Evam Law & Policy has concluded that opinion trading is a game of skill. The Question of Skill in Opinion Trading Study, draws upon gameplay data from three leading Indian opinion trading platforms to present robust statistical and behavioral evidence that opinion trading demands informed decision-making, cognitive adaptability, and strategic execution. This study is backed by some reputed personalities including IIT Delhi Professor Dr. Saptarshi Mukherjee, Dean of Vinayaka Mission's Law School Dr. Ananth Padmanabhan, and has been reviewed by Dr. Justice Balbir Singh Chauhan - retired as a justice of the Supreme Court of India, and former Chairman of the 21st Law Commission of India.
This comes at a time when the Indian gaming industry is seeing exponential growth. With over 568 million gamers, India is the second-largest gaming community in the world. Real Money Games (RMGs) dominate this space, and new formats like opinion trading have already reached impressive scale, USD 120 million in projected revenues for FY 2024–25 and backing from over 35 global investors.
Yet, the report observes misconceptions that persist around opinion trading, often equating it to games of chance or speculative betting. To address this, the study applied three key statistical tests commonly used to determine skill presence in online games: Key Findings from the study: Persistence of Skill : Players who performed well in one month continued to perform well in subsequent months across platforms. For example, on Probo, win rate and ROI correlations across months showed p-values less than 10^-100, indicating extraordinarily strong consistency—something not possible in games of chance.
: Players who performed well in one month continued to perform well in subsequent months across platforms. For example, on Probo, win rate and ROI correlations across months showed p-values less than 10^-100, indicating extraordinarily strong consistency—something not possible in games of chance. Exemplary Skill : Statistical distributions showed heavy right-skewness, suggesting the presence of a small group of highly skilled users consistently outperforming others. For example, on an opinion trading platform, 12.7% of users exceeded a 79%-win rate, while a chance-based simulation showed only 0.01% doing the same. A Z-test confirmed this difference to be statistically significant.
: Statistical distributions showed heavy right-skewness, suggesting the presence of a small group of highly skilled users consistently outperforming others. For example, on an opinion trading platform, 12.7% of users exceeded a 79%-win rate, while a chance-based simulation showed only 0.01% doing the same. A Z-test confirmed this difference to be statistically significant. Learning Curve & Experience Gap : Players demonstrably improved their performance with experience. On Probo, median win rates increased with the number of events played, with correlation tests rejecting the hypothesis of no learning. Similar trends were observed on the other 2 opinion trading platforms.
: Players demonstrably improved their performance with experience. On Probo, median win rates increased with the number of events played, with correlation tests rejecting the hypothesis of no learning. Similar trends were observed on the other 2 opinion trading platforms. Strategic Use of Exit Tools Drives Higher Win Rates : Players who actively used exit strategies—choosing to close positions early based on real-time market shifts—secured a 70% win rate, compared to just 42% among those who passively waited for event outcomes. To summarize, players with exit strategies won 70% of the time, vs just 42% among those without. This demonstrates the importance of active, tactical engagement in opinion trading.
: Players who actively used exit strategies—choosing to close positions early based on real-time market shifts—secured a 70% win rate, compared to just 42% among those who passively waited for event outcomes. Experience Leads to Sophisticated Market Behavior : The study also highlights that users with >250 trades placed 2X more strategic price-point trades than beginners, showing nuanced market behavior. This reflects a deeper understanding of market dynamics, as seasoned players diversified positions across fluctuating price bands to hedge risk or capitalize on market inefficiencies.
: The study also highlights that users with >250 trades placed 2X more strategic price-point trades than beginners, showing nuanced market behavior. This reflects a deeper understanding of market dynamics, as seasoned players diversified positions across fluctuating price bands to hedge risk or capitalize on market inefficiencies. Strategic Behavior: Skilled players were found to diversify trades, hedge across price points, and time their exits. For instance, users placing orders across 12+ price points recovered over 80% of their investment on average, reflecting active market reading, analysis and informed decision making. Many players also seem to use a combination of these strategies, with them placing multiple orders and exiting before the conclusion of the event. Such players on Probo have a win rate of 63%, again demonstrating their strategic behavior to maximize returns.
About the findings of the report, Ashish Garg, Co-founder and CTO of Probo, said, 'This report is a significant step forward in establishing a data-backed understanding of opinion trading. For years, we've seen firsthand how our top users display a deep grasp of probability, real-time decision-making, and strategic foresight. We're glad that independent researchers have validated what our internal data has long shown—success in opinion trading is built on skill, not luck."
Shashank Reddy, Managing Partner - Evam Law & Policy shared, "Opinion trading sits at the intersection of market-based reasoning and digital gameplay. This study provides much-needed empirical clarity to an emerging format that has often been misunderstood. The evidence shows that these platforms reward strategy, experience, deep knowledge, and skill development. Importantly, this study offers a crucial policy contribution amid ongoing debates over the legal classification of emerging digital games. Under Indian law, games of skill enjoy protection and are treated differently from games of chance. By rigorously applying the "predominance test', recognized by Indian courts, the study affirms that opinion trading falls firmly within the skill-dominant category.'
As the Indian gaming sector evolves, this study offers a foundation for nuanced regulation, informed public discourse, and better industry practices.
To access the full study- click here
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First Published Date: 20 May, 15:17 IST