2025 U.S. Open best bets, predictions: Expert picks for Oakmont Country Club
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John Smoltz favors McIlroy, Scheffler over LIV
Ahead of the American Century celebrity golf tournament, baseball hall of famer John Smoltz breaks down the best celebrity golfers and why he favors the PGA over LIV.
The golf world is getting ready to descend upon Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania for the third major event of the 2025 season: the U.S. Open.
The U.S. Open will feature a field of 156 golfers vying to take home the title. Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite to take home his first U.S. Open Trophy, but there will be plenty of others hoping to author a Cinderella story, including 17-year-old high school junior Mason Howell.
This will also mark one of the few times each year that PGA Tour and LIV Golfers square off against one another. Bryson DeChambeau will look to defend his 2024 title for the start-up circuit, while many will be watching to see whether Brooks Koepka, Joaquin Niemann, or Jon Rahm can make a run at a major title.
Who will win the 2025 U.S. Open? Navigating the 7,372-yard layout, five-inch rough and fast greens of Oakmont won't be easy for any golfer. Here are USA TODAY's expert picks for the tournament, with all odds coming via BetMGM.
Best bets for 2025 U.S. Open
Yes, you should back Scottie Scheffler (+275)
Scheffler has by far the shortest odds to win the U.S. Open, but it's for a good reason. He has won three of his last four tournaments, including the PGA Championship, and has finished no worse than T-25th in any event this season.
Scheffler's success is largely thanks to his strong tee-to-green game. He ranks first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: tee to green (SG:T2G) but has also been the tour's second-best scrambler. That combination should allow him to have fewer issues than others with Oakmont's brutal rough and could ultimately deliver him his first U.S. Open title.
Collin Morikawa (+2500) is another top contender to back
Morikawa ranks second on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, which should bode well for him at the U.S. Open, where landing in the rough will be especially penal. If the 28-year-old can have a strong ball-striking week, he should keep himself near the top of the leaderboard.
At the very least, Morikawa is a safe bet to make the cut. He hasn't yet missed one in 11 events this year and has logged eight top-20 finishes.
Joaquin Niemann (+3000) is the best LIV Golfer
Some may be scared off by Niemann, who has just one top-20 finish in 21 major appearances since turning pro in 2019. That said, he has been LIV Golf's best player this season, winning four of the circuit's eight events, including the pre-U.S. Open tune-up in Virginia.
Niemann has averaged 327.3 yards per drive this season, which would be good for the best in the PGA Tour ahead of Aldrich Potgieter (326.6). The Chilean's accuracy could make or break his chances of contending for his first major title, but there's little doubt he has the distance needed to shorten the course, making him a quality value pick at a discount from DeChambeau's +750 odds.
Sepp Straka (+4000), Russell Henley (+6000) are top value picks
Straka hasn't yet won a major but has turned into one of the PGA Tour's most consistent players. He ranks second to only Scheffler in total strokes gained (SG: Total) and ranks top-three in both strokes gained approaching the green (SG:APP) and greens in regulation (GIR) percentage. He missed the cut at the Masters and PGA Championships this year but has finished top-three in two of his last three events, including a win at the Truist Championship.
Meanwhile, what Henley lacks in distance he makes up for in his tee-to-green accuracy. He may not shorten the course like some of the other bombers, but if he can play mistake-free golf, there may be a spot in the top 10 for the Official World Golf Rankings' No. 7 golfer.
Looking for a mega-sleeper? Thorbjorn Olesen (+20000) could deliver
Those trying to find a golfer with longer than 100-1 odds to back could consider Olesen. The Dane has never made the cut at the U.S. Open but boasts a well-rounded game (14th on tour in SG: Total) and has the third-best scoring average on the PGA Tour behind Scheffler and Rory McIlroy.
Olesen has made five consecutive cuts and has posted two top-10 finishes in his last six events. He hasn't finished top 10 at a major since the 2013 Masters, but taking a flier on him to win – or at least to finish top 20 (+450) – could prove a worthwhile risk.
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