UN Chief Says Fossil Fuels Are On The Way Out—Are They?

Forbes

a day ago

In a recent speech, António Guterres, the UN General Secretary, claimed that the world is 'on the cusp of a new era' in global energy. 'Fossil fuels,' he said are finally 'running out of road.'
This is a weighty statement by an influential voice and so needs some critical assessment. If correct, it tells us a massive transformation has occurred or is in progress. If not, it tells us something about problems of perception and representation regarding energy reality.
Guterres' speech announced the release of a new UN report, 'Seizing the Moment of Opportunity: Supercharging the New Era of Renewables, Efficiency, and Electrification.' His main message has several parts: 1) the energy transition has reached a point where a non-carbon future is 'no longer a promise [but]Energy Sources The World Uses And What This Means
In 2024, world energy use was 76.4% from oil, coal, and natural gas, in that order, with another 6% from traditional biomass, or 82.4% from carbon sources. This compares to 6.1% for solar and wind. If we add other renewables like hydro, the non-carbon total rises to 13%, and with nuclear to 18%. This is only a few percent less than natural gas, at 22%.
Trend-wise, global energy consumption has been increasing at an accelerated rate since 2022, with fossil sources growing slowly, hydro and nuclear stable, and solar and wind rapidly increasing. The best interpretation from this and other trends is that renewables are replacing fossil sources in meeting new energy demand but haven't started to displace them on a global basis. Their overall role is still small but significantly elevated when viewed as part of the non-carbon share.
Real change is thus underway, but there are no clear signs of a massive transformation. The idea that the era of fossil fuels is at an end is difficult to square with reality.
Electricity Is The Future, But It Will Not Be Simple
The UN message focuses on electricity, which makes sense as this form of energy is expanding into new sectors like transportation, industry, and services. Electricity is the future in an ever-more digitized world, and demand for power is growing everywhere.
The claim that solar and wind are far cheaper than fossil fuels and nuclear and will thus win out in every case is not a simple one. Added to the material and construction costs for these sources are those needed to integrate their fluctuating power levels into a grid system and to back them up when they fall below demand for extended periods. Backup typically comes from other sources, including natural gas, and increasingly storage technologies, especially batteries. Costs for battery storage are dropping as technology and manufacturing improve, but batteries can only supply power for hours, not weeks.
Are solar/wind displacing fossil fuels in key regions? In Europe, yes. Wind supplied more total power to the continent in 2024 than either gas or coal, which have fallen by 50% or more in the past two decades. Non-carbon sources, including nuclear and hydro, now account for more than 60% of Europe's electricity, a figure certain to rise. In the U.S., however, a major drop in coal use has been overwhelmingly due to a surge in cheap natural gas.
China presents a more complex case. Coal continues to exceed all other sources combined, but non-carbon electricity has grown to more than 40%. To date, wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear have taken the place of more coal use but now seem to be displacing existing consumption as well. Solar and wind are the fastest growing by far, yet hydro and nuclear are rapidly increasing, too. Beijing has plans for these sources to lower coal dependency and peak its carbon emissions by 2030.
Rapid build out of solar and wind, however, has brought challenges. Grid integration has not been able to keep place, leading to curtailment of actual power produced. The large land demands of these sources have created environmental and local political problems.
At the same time, 2024 saw construction of new coal plants at a decade high. Global Energy Monitor's coal plant tracker shows a large number of future plants have been permitted with others under construction. Continuing rise in China's total demand for power has meant that coal use has kept increasing even while its share decreases.
The Energy Security Issue Is Crucial But Has More Than One Answer
In his speech, the UN chief tells us there are 'no price spikes for sunlight' and 'no embargoes on wind.' However true, it is not nature but the technologies that harness it and the critical minerals they need which matter. And these have had their role in the trade 'wars' between China and the European Union and U.S.
There is no realistic scenario where solar and wind become the simple solution to the entangling economic and geopolitical challenges regarding energy security. Concerns today over import dependency do not vanish just because a foreign energy technology is cheap; indeed, they increase. We've seen this repeatedly directed at Chinese exports of solar and wind technology.
This brings up another truth. When it comes to security, countries tend to favor their own natural resources. These include sun, wind, and flowing water but also coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium. China is hardly the only country that has a coal culture. So do many of the world's most rapidly developing nations, like India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Turkey.
Reality Checks About Global Energy Are Often Needed
These are only a few reality checks that readily present themselves. They assure us that global energy trends are complex and evolving. They are complex, moreover, for reasons that go well beyond costs. Fossil fuels still run the greater part of the world and will not run out of road soon.
At the present time, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its shakeup of oil and gas markets, there is a struggle for many nations between securing supplies for immediate, short-term energy needs and pursuing policies driven by climate concerns. This is happening in an era of fractured international order and trade disruption, enhanced by the Trump Administration's weaponized use of tariffs in foreign policy. There is every sign, in other words, that global realities will continue to resist simple solutions well into the future.