Breakingviews - Beijing grabs old dam playbook to energise growth
Huge dams have been central to planners' thinking in previous economic cycles. Perhaps the most well-known, the Three Gorges, contributed to a quick rebound after the Asian financial crisis in 1998. A big dam boom, which catapulted the People's Republic into being the world's biggest, opens new tab hydropower producer, also supported Xi's last major campaign to fight overcapacity in 2015.
Those are the same pressures China's economy is facing now. Granted, the new super dam won't have the same stimulative impact on an economy which has grown 19-fold to $19 trillion since construction on the Three Gorges began in earnest.
But it's still notable. The first year of construction could add almost a tenth of a percentage point to GDP in its first year of construction, per Citi analysts, thanks to demand for cement, steel and other products.
Stock and commodity players cheered the news, with iron ore futures, for example, hitting a more than four-month high. That optimism, though, is rooted in investors' assumptions that the dam is not a one-off, but part of a broader push to underpin China's economy with major infrastructure projects.
There are risks to the Tibetan dam. Further downstream the river flows into India, which will be concerned about water security. While more hydropower will eventually help reduce China's greenhouse gas pollution, building it will add to them. It'll require around 30 million tons of cement, per Morgan Stanley, equivalent to two years of China's current production. It'll need plenty of steel, too. Those two industries combined account for almost a fifth of global carbon emissions.
Moreover, dams are not immune to climate change. Drought in Sichuan in 2022, for instance, prompted all manner of electricity-use restrictions.
For Beijing the benefits outweigh the negatives. If electricity consumption is a better economic indicator, opens new tab than official GDP figures, as former Premier Li Keqiang once said, the renewed urgency in adding more hydropower speaks volumes about Beijing's economic plan.
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China's passport trap: A new front in the global war on Uyghurs
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Mr Obulqasim, 52, is now stuck in limbo, and faces deportation within days from Kyrgyzstan to China because he is in possession of a 'fake' passport in the eyes of the Kyrgyz authorities. 'I am afraid they would incarcerate me if I went,' Mr Obulqasim told The Telegraph. 'I'm very scared about what will happen to me if I'm forced to go back.' Since 2014, China's crackdown against the Uyghurs has intensified significantly, with the authorities arbitrarily detaining upwards of a million people in 're-education'' camps, and scores more in prison for 'crimes' such as praying and fasting. Beijing is also known to target fugitives abroad. The government has specified that it 'provides clues' about 'fugitives…to the countries where they are located, so that these countries would deprive them of their residency status and compulsorily repatriate them to our country or the third country in accordance with immigration laws'. Who China considers a fugitive, however, is very subjective, as the state considers political dissidents and ethnic minorities, such as Uyghurs and Tibetans, who are critical of the government to be criminals. Brazen arrests on foreign soil Beijing has brazenly sent its officers into other jurisdictions to make arrests on foreign soil, as well as kidnapping foreigners in secret and sending them back to prison. It is continually adapting its methods, and is particularly adept at exploiting legal grey areas. In the past, embassies and consulates would refuse to renew passports abroad, forcing applicants to return to China to process paperwork – a practice that drew uproar globally. In many cases, they also would not issue passports domestically, controlling who could and could not travel abroad. But experts say Mr Obulqasim's unusual situation of being issued with a passport with incorrect information could be a new way by which China is working to claw people back they want to silence, as part of a broader campaign of transnational repression. 'We do know China actively uses deportation in cooperation with other authorities to get people back – that's an official policy,' said Laura Harth, of Safeguard Defenders, a human rights advocacy organisation that focuses on China. Several means of forced returns are codified in Chinese law, with 'repatriation' listed as one measure. What's new in Mr Obulqasim's case is that the Chinese embassy did technically issue Mr Obulqasim with a passport, but with inaccurate identifying details, causing him a host of visa problems in Kyrgyzstan now leading to likely deportation. 'It seems quite smart,' said Ms Harth, noting that such an approach gives China 'plausible deniability'. Mr Obulqasim, a soft-spoken man, works as a chef, and is neither an activist nor a dissident. But experts say his mere identity as an Uyghur is enough to put him in China's crosshairs. 'We see this pattern over and over again. Not just in Kyrgyzstan, but in countries where China is targeting individuals, there doesn't seem to be rhyme or reason why,' said Julie Millsap, director of government relations at the Wild Pigeon Collective, a Uyghur advocacy organisation. 'Some seem to be very ordinary businesspeople, and at times not even particularly well-connected, yet China will go to efforts to force countries to send people back as part of a broader trend.' After emigrating from China in 1998, Mr Obulqasim visited his country of birth only a few times, and hasn't returned in 25 years. His remaining family members there have all since died. He built a new life, and at one point ran his own restaurant in Kyrgyzstan, where he married and had several children. Other than a few short stints working in Uzbekistan and Turkey, also as a chef, he has primarily resided in Kyrgyzstan. Before his older brother died, Chinese authorities would force him to call Mr Obulqasim to try and persuade him to return. The message from his brother was always the same: 'They say you should come home, just for a week or two.' China's intimidation of Mr Obulqasim through his brother would always intensify around the time when he sought to renew his passport, he said. The harassment was serious enough that he distanced himself from his brother. Back then, passports granted to him were only valid for two to three years. But in 2013, to his surprise, Mr Obulqasim was suddenly issued a passport valid for a decade. Uyghurs abroad of increasing concern His most recent passport renewal application was his first attempt to receive new documents since China significantly ramped up its crackdown against the Uyghurs in a campaign that many Western politicians and governments have called a genocide. It is unclear whether China has a specific reason to target Mr Obulqasim, or whether he is simply caught up in the wider campaign to place Uyghurs under lock and key, particularly those in central Asian countries – former Soviet Union countries where Beijing has edged Russia out in power and influence. The Beijing government is primarily concerned with ensuring the ruling Communist Party stays in power, and silencing any individual or group that might challenge its authority. Uyghurs abroad have been of increasing concern, as members of the diaspora were amongst the initial whistleblowers regarding China's extreme human rights abuses. 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They try to be around me all the time in case the police come, but if they do come, there is nothing they or I can do. 'I don't have a theory for why this happened to me. This is the worst phase, and I have never felt more terrified or anxious. It's terrible; I am completely at their mercy, and I have not done anything.' The Chinese embassy in London said it was not aware of Mr Obulqasim's case and accused Western media of reporting 'with a biased lens' on Xinjiang, the far-west region of China where Uyghurs live. It also claimed that 'people of all ethnic groups live and work in peace and their lawful rights are fully safeguarded' and said it was 'evidence' of the 'true' human rights situation and the 'effectiveness of China's policies in governing Xinjiang'.
Reuters
an hour ago
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From ingredient costs to sagging demand, tariffs further pinch company earnings
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Reuters
an hour ago
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Bangladesh vows democratic renewal on first anniversary of Hasina's overthrow
DHAKA, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Thousands of exultant Bangladeshis gathered in Dhaka on Tuesday to mark the first anniversary of mass protests that toppled Sheikh Hasina, as the interim government unveiled a road map for democratic reform with a national election next year. Rallies, concerts, and prayer sessions were held in the capital as people celebrated what they called a "second liberation". The events culminated with Nobel peace laureate Muhammad Yunus reading out the "July Declaration", which seeks to give constitutional recognition to the 2024 student-led uprising in response to repression and economic hardship that forced Hasina, then prime minister, to flee to India on August 5. "The people of Bangladesh express their desire that the student-people uprising of 2024 will get proper state and constitutional recognition," said Yunus, who heads the interim government installed after Hasina's fall, as representatives of political parties looked on. "The July Declaration will feature in the schedule of the reformed constitution as framed by the government formed through the next national election,' he said. Supporters see the charter as a foundation for institutional reform; critics say its impact could be largely symbolic in the absence of a legal framework or parliamentary consensus. Yunus said he would ask the election commission to organise national elections to be held in February 2026. "We must ensure that no future government can become fascist again. The state must be repaired in such a way that whenever signs of fascism are found anywhere, it can be eradicated immediately," he said. Political parties, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, have urged that elections be held before the end of 2025 to avoid a political vacuum. Yunus said next year's election could be peaceful, fair and transparent. While Hasina's Awami League remains suspended, many believe it should be allowed to participate — despite its top leadership facing prosecution for alleged human rights violations during last year's protests. "Fallen autocrats and their self-serving allies remain active,", Yunus said, urging unity to protect the gains of the uprising while his government holds talks with political parties and civil society. His government had already launched sweeping reforms while trials for those responsible for the "July killings" of 2024 were progressing swiftly, he said. Crowds waving flags, holding placards, and chanting slogans gathered near parliament, including some who had been injured in the protests. "On this day in 2024, the tyrant Sheikh Hasina fled the country," said Ahmedul Hasan. was here last year too. I've come again to remember that moment and join the celebrations." Others were less exuberant. "Even after all the bloodshed and sacrifice, a truly liberal democracy in Bangladesh still feels like a distant dream," said Sabbir Ahmed, a college student who joined the protests last year. Police were on alert throughout the capital, with armoured vehicles on patrol to deter any attempt by the Awami League to disrupt events. "Let this anniversary not be a day of retrospection, but a rallying cry for a brighter tomorrow," Hasina said in an open letter to the people of Bangladesh, adding that she had never resigned as prime minister. "Bangladesh has overcome adversity before, and we will rise again, stronger, more united, and more determined to build a democracy that truly serves its people," she said.
