How Trump's love of pomp and pageantry and a long-awaited meeting with the King could sweeten UK trade deal... as major price hikes for cars and beef loom
This week's trip to Scotland is just a prelude to Trump's September official state visit where he will meet King Charles.
The president is set to hammer out details of a huge trade deal with the UK during talks in between rounds of golf at his Scottish course Monday – with prices for cars, digital clicks, and U.S.-raised chicken and beef all on the line.
'Trump wants a successful state visit in September with no problems, and so he is not going to hit the UK hard on anything until after that,' one plugged-in source who works with the White House told the Daily Mail.
This fall, Trump is seeking a royal welcome with pomp and pageantry that will top his first term visit with Queen Elizabeth.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was among the first world leaders to successfully woo Trump by presenting him with a letter from the King at the White House. Now, the two are set to meet at Trump's Turnberry golf course, with aides saying leader-to-leader trade talks with be critical.
'This is a pretty broad framework still, so it would be hashing out the more specifics there' at the 'leader-to-leader' level, a White House official told the Daily Mail.
The products at stake run the gamut of the industrial and agricultural economies of the two nations.
Trump went out of his way to applaud Starmer as he began his trip to Scotland – signaling he is going for the soft sell, at least publicly.
'He's a good man. He got a trade deal done,' Trump said. Instead of focusing on the fine points, he said the two would be celebrating the agreement, which sets a 10 percent baseline tariff for imports of UK products. 'It's a great deal for both,' he added.
That came as he put the chance of reaching a trade deal with the European Union only at 'fifty-fifty,' in advance of a planned meeting with EU Commission Chair Ursula von der Leyen, amid reports that it could end with the EU accepting a 15 percent U.S. 'baselline' tariff.
One question facing the US side is how much relief to grant Britain on steel and aluminum tariffs, a White House official told the Daily Mail. Trump imposed a 50 so-called Section 232 tariff on steel and aluminum worldwide last month, with a 25 hit on the UK amid trade talks.
The U.S. exempted British jet engines from special Section 232 tariffs. But there is still discussion on British pharmaceutical imports 'where we could have some willingness to give them special consideration on that,' said the official.
That trade authority allows Trump to impose tariffs on national security grounds.
One high-impact clash is the UK's Digital Services Tax, which brought in more than $1B last year and rising. American negotiators have long compared the tax to a tariff on US tech giants.
The so-called 'Google tax' hits top U.S. tech companies that provide a platform for online purchasing.
Trump managed to press Canada to nix its Digital Services late last month after threatening to terminate 'all discussions on trade with Canada.'
'Trump forced Canada to get of their digital services tax, and the UK and the EU are next,' said the insider.
Trump wants the UK to get rid of its digital services tax – a matter that wasn't settled by the May deal
Trump and Starmer met at the G7 summit in Canada in June and again at NATO. Now, they will meet on Trump's turf at his Turnberry course
The details are what matter in any trade negotiation, and the one between the U.S. and Britain is no different, despite the longstanding 'special relationship.'
For example, the May 8 deal set a 100,000 quota for UK auto imports like Jaguars, Land Rovers and Mini Coopers that get a 10 percent tariff rather than the larger 25 percent one. A UK 10 percent tariff on U.S. cars remains in effect.
But the deal announced an unspecificed 'accompanying arrangement for attendant auto parts' for such autos.
'That's something that may need to be hashed out,' said the White House official.
The two countries agreed to work 'constructively' on enhancing market access for agricultural products.
That means the U.S. poultry that European and British trading partners sometimes refer to derisively as 'chlorinated chicken' will find a new market.
But the text announced by Trump merely states that products 'must comply with the importing country's sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards and other mutually agreed standards.'
The various types are spelled out in a Harmonized Tariff Schedule published by the office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Categories of chicken alone include chicken thighs, frozen chicken, ground chicken, chicken breast, chicken meal, and even chicken paste.
'They agreed to take their chicken, but what exactly is that? Are they taking full chickens, or taking live chickens?' asked the official. 'Are they taking frozen chicken meat? Are they taking prepared chicken meals with air-tight containers?' asked the official.
Amid the compex multi-faceted negotiations, there is something else that Trump wants. The meeting with Starmer takes place at Turnberry, a celebrated course that has not hosted the British Open since Trump bought it. Trump and the Trump Organization – Trump has maintained his business empire as president – have long wanted to land the tour.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who came along for Trump's first round of golf in Scotland Saturday, said back in Washington that Trump and Starmer will meet 'to refine the historic U.S.-U.K. trade deal' announced in May.
She touted recent trade deals with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, and said of Trump: 'He came in as the closer in all three of those.'
As of mid-week Trump had fired off 25 trade letters, with a new baseline emerging of a 15 percent baseline tariff on products coming into the U.S.
The risks to a range of sectors are real – as UK tariffs on American spirits in the land where fine Scotch was born have revealed.
Between 1997 and 2018, when there weren't any tariffs on distilled spirits between the two countries, bilateral trade spiked 212 percent – hitting $1.4 billion, according to figures the Distilled Spirits Council provided to the Daily Mail.
But 'devastating' tariffs on Single Malt Scotch and American Whiskey led to a 35 percent decrease in trade.
A UK 25 percent retaliatory tariff on U.S. Whiskeys in 2018 and 2021 caused a 41 percent drop in exports there. When it came off, it shot back up to $137 million in 2024. Chris Swonger, CEO of the Council is meeting his Scotch Whisky Association counterpart this weekend to urge bringing tariffs down to zero.
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