Bryan Norcross: Disturbance to drench Florida, then watching for development in the Gulf
This type of weather scenario often produces flash flooding. So plan to stay aware.
After the system moves into the Gulf mid-week, the National Hurricane Center is giving it a slight chance of developing into at least a tropical depression. The strong consensus of the various computer forecasts is that the system will stay weak and disorganized, but it's important to remember that forecasts for systems that haven't even begun to develop are always subject to change.
The current consensus is that the disturbance with its expansive tropical moisture will track toward the northern Gulf coast and spread heavy rain along the coast and well inland. The system might stall late in the week over or near the northern Gulf. If that happens, extremely wet weather will affect coastal areas next weekend. Plan to stay informed.
The disturbance developed from the tail end of a cold front that moved offshore of the U.S. East Coast. The main storm system and front are pushing away into the Atlantic, but the disturbance was left behind over the warm Gulf Stream waters offshore of Georgia and South Carolina.
The system is best organized in the middle levels of the atmosphere. When a disturbance develops from a non-tropical system, like a front, it often takes a number of days to gain much organization. That's why the National Hurricane Center has the Area to Watch in the Gulf. It will take until about Wednesday before the disorganized, but very wet system gets there.
Rain looks likely to increase across the Florida Peninsula tomorrow and continue into Wednesday. Then our attention will focus on the Gulf and the northern Gulf coast.
The atmosphere is extremely moist over Florida, and that moisture level is forecast to increase. So heavy rain looks very likely over a good part of the Florida Peninsula. It appears that the thunderstorms will be slow moving, increasing the threat of local flooding.
Otherwise, the tropics remain calm. Hostile upper winds and dry air are holding development at bay.Original article source: Bryan Norcross: Disturbance to drench Florida, then watching for development in the Gulf
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
Gulf low moving west Tuesday night with potential for development
NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — The National Hurricane Center continues to have a 40% chance of tropical development as a low moves west across northern Florida. It will be key to watch tonight and Wednesday morning see exactly where this moves off the coast. How far offshore that it goes will be a big factor on how much this can develop, if any. Most of the heavy rain with this system is on the west and southwest side of the center. It actually looks like that trend will continue as it moves west, and we will likely start to see some rain with this system by late in the day Wednesday. At the moment it looks like a depression or possibly a tropical storm that moves west into our area by Thursday. Heavy rain will likely be the main impact. Locally heavy rain amounts could create flooding issues. While most of the area would be more likely to see 3-6″ of rain, some spots could reach 10 inches depending on where the center goes and any banding that sets up. A flood watch is in effect from Wednesday evening through Friday. There is a lower end chance of significant tropical development. However if this system remains far enough to the south, we could see intensification. Be aware of the threat of a stronger system over the area later in the week. However the rain would likely still be the main Posts Tropical rain on the way across the northern Gulf Bayou Dularge bridge reopens for limited hours in Terrebonne Parish Trump funding cuts to PBS set to hit free educational content for kids Largest piece of Mars on Earth sells at New York auction for over $5 million Are hot dogs really that bad for you? Why you should avoid some franks, experts say Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
Two people killed in flash flooding in New Jersey
PLAINFIELD, N.J. (PIX11) — Following flash flooding that swept through New Jersey on Monday, two people were found dead in Plainfield, according to the city's office of communications. The two victims were in their vehicle when it was swept up during the height of the storm, a post from the city's Facebook page announced. They were both pronounced dead at the scene, officials said. More Local News 'All of Plainfield grieved this latest loss,' said Mayor Adrian O. Mapp. 'We mourn with the families, and we remain committed to doing all we can to strengthen our emergency response systems and protect our residents from future harm.' A state of emergency was declared in New Jersey due to expected high levels of rainfall and flash flooding throughout the state, Governor Phil Murphy announced on Monday. More: Latest News from Around the Tri-State At least one to two inches of rain per hour drenched the garden state, according to the National Weather Service. Dominique Jack is a digital content producer from Brooklyn with more than five years of experience covering news. She joined PIX11 in 2024. More of her work can be found here. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Chicago Tribune
5 hours ago
- Chicago Tribune
Gulf Coast braces for flooding as storm system builds into possible tropical depression
The weather system moving across the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday was showing a greater chance of becoming a tropical depression as it moves toward the northern Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center. The system has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression as it moves west over the Gulf toward southeastern Louisiana on Thursday, the federal agency said. The severity of its impact will depend on how far it travels offshore, where conditions are ripe for a tropical depression, before reaching Louisiana. The tropical weather will affect Alabama and Mississippi as well. Regardless of whether the system intensifies, heavy downpours could cause flooding, officials warned. New Orleans is bracing for 3 to 5 inches (8 to 13 centimeters) of rain through Saturday, but some areas could see as much as 10 inches (25 centimeters), especially near the coast, the National Weather Service said. 'While a tropical depression cannot be ruled out near the coast on Thursday, the main focus remains the heavy rain threat,' the agency wrote on X. Volunteers and local elected officials played music as they shoveled sand into bags to hand out to residents in New Orleans on Wednesday morning at the Dryades YMCA. 'My street flooded just the other day when we got a little bit of rain and so I want to just make sure that I'm proactive,' New Orleans resident Alex Trapps said as he drove away with sandbags in his car. The looming threat in the southeast comes on the heels of a series of lethal floods this summer. On Monday, flash floods inundated New York City and parts of New Jersey, claiming two lives. And at least 132 people were killed in floodwaters that overwhelmed Texas Hill Country on the Fourth of July. The system percolating over Florida will be called Dexter if it becomes a named storm. Six weeks into the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, there have been three named tropical storms — Andrea, Barry and Chantal — but no hurricanes. Chantal made landfall in South Carolina last week, and its remnants caused flooding in North Carolina that killed an 83-year-old woman when her car was swept off a rural road. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association said in May there was a 60% chance that there will be more named storms this hurricane season than there have been in past years on average. The currently developing weather system is expected to move fully inland by the end of the week. Southern Louisiana — a region all too familiar with the potentially devastating impacts of flooding — is expected to be hit hardest Thursday and beyond. Erika Mann, CEO of the Dryades YMCA, said that local elected officials managed to organize the storm supply distribution within a day after the threat intensified. 'We open our doors and help the community when the community is in need,' Mann said. Some residents who came to get supplies 'jumped out of their cars and they helped. And it just represents what New Orleans is about. We come together in crisis,' Mann said.
