Toronto Raptors rotation outlook: Should Brandon Ingram and Immanuel Quickley play more or less?

New York Times

3 hours ago

Imagine having tried to map out the Toronto Raptors' rotation at this time last year. Oh my, the time you would have misspent.
If you recall, Bruce Brown underwent surgery in late September. Ja'Kobe Walter injured himself on the eve of training camp, Immanuel Quickley entered camp with a hand injury, and RJ Barrett and Kelly Olynyk sustained injuries after the first preseason game in Montreal. Basketball humans project rotations, basketball deities laugh — or something like that.
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As we sit here in the middle of August, we do not know of any Raptors injuries. Brandon Ingram began participating in full team workouts in Las Vegas in July, after a sprained ankle derailed his season last year. That is the biggest news, and it's positive.
Surely, injuries will pop up, but hopefully not at last season's rate. While the outlook is clear, I thought it would be wise to take a crack at what the rotation could look like at full health. While there are many things here that certainly won't come to pass, it is a useful exercise in envisioning what the Raptors will look like.
I had three main goals.
1) As often as possible, have two of Quickley, RJ Barrett, Ingram and Scottie Barnes on the floor.
2) As much as I'm intrigued by a small-ball lineup with Barnes or Jonathan Mogbo as the de facto centre, I wanted to keep Jakob Poeltl or Sandro Mamukelashvili on the floor at all times. Mamu is 6-foot-9 and not a defensive presence, having allowed opponents to shoot 64.8 percent with him as the main defender at the rim. Still, I think the Raptors will lean that way early in the year. Mamukelashvili offers some shooting the Raptors don't have up front otherwise. I also had either Quickley or Jamal Shead on the floor at all times, although we've seen Barnes and/or Barrett run the team without a point guard-sized player before.
3) I tried to be mindful about minutes. With Quickley and Ingram coming off a season with injuries, I wasn't going to push them into the mid-30s, at least to start the year. Now, let's get to it.
I'm guessing the first thing people noticed is who isn't listed at all. Walter and Mogbo are not here.
Unless the Raptors open up a starting lineup spot, which I would find surprising until the five highest-paid players have logged some minutes together, I see two potential rotation battles to start the year: 1) Which two of Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji and Walter will come off the bench on the wing; and 2) which one of Mogbo and rookie Collin Murray-Boyles will fill the fourth big/small-ball centre role.
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I went with the two more experienced players in the first case. The Raptors still believe in Dick and badly want him to work as a movement shooter and secondary playmaker. His role will be diminished from last year because of Ingram's presence, but he has a chance to be the Raptors' main scoring option off the bench.
Agbaji is in the final year of his rookie deal, and his low-usage role combined with his plus defence gives him the first crack at a fairly slim role here. I don't believe players are often 'showcased' for trades, but there is some urgency to figure out whether Agbaji's career-best 39.9 percent shooting from 3 from last year was for real or not. Walter is the first man up if there is an injury, and maybe he gets some reps with Raptors 905 in an expanded role to further develop if the team is extremely healthy.
(Shoutout to Jamison Battle, too. His shooting will be called upon.)
As for the other spot, I could see the Raptors cutting the rotation and not playing two of Mogbo, Murray-Boyles and Mamukelashvili. For now, I see the Raptors leaning on their depth and letting players prove they don't belong rather than the other way around. Mogbo was arguably the Raptors' best player in Las Vegas, but the team has more invested in Murray-Boyles, the ninth pick. Due to their shooting limitations, it's tough to find room for both of them off the bench. Again, Mogbo will inevitably play a bunch.
There is a world in which the Raptors do a straight staggering of Barnes and Ingram and map things out from there. That's not where I started, though, as I don't want Ingram playing that much. I chose to believe more in the Raptors' depth than some observers do, tried to have Barnes anchor bench-heavy lineups and gave different variations of the Raptors' better offensive players time to play together.
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In the middle of the first and third quarters, I have Barnes as the lone established playmaker, along with all of the reserves save for Murray-Boyles. Those are the only minutes here where only one of the quartet is on the floor. Quickley and Barrett get some time together at the end of the first and third quarter, Ingram gets some time with both Quickley and Barnes to start the second and fourth quarters, while Barnes and Barrett get to run the show in the middle of those same quarters.
The most unrealistic thing here is how late the Raptors get their starting lineup, presumably also the closing lineup, back in the game in the fourth quarter. Usually, that happens around the midway point of the final frame, barring foul trouble. If you'd like, you can toss two more minutes in the direction of Quickley and Ingram. For now, this is as much a math exercise as anything.
Speaking of which…
Barrett has averaged more than 30 minutes per game in each of his six seasons. He's down to 28 here. Dick goes from 29 minutes last year to 20 minutes in this breakdown. Ingram has been at 33 or higher in each year since his rookie deal. He's down to 30.
As the season goes on, it is easy to see where the minutes could come. Giving 38 total minutes to the team's backup wings is probably excessive, as is giving 30 to the third and fourth bigs on the roster. Some combination of attrition and production will probably bump those minutes up.
This is how these things work, typically. At the beginning of the season, you wonder how the coach can play just 10 guys. By the end, you wonder how he finds eight.
(Photo of Immanuel Quickley:)
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