Europe gives Iran deadline to contain nuclear programme or see sanctions reinstated

The Guardian

2 days ago

The EU will start the process of reinstating UN sanctions on Iran from 29 August if Tehran has made no progress by then on containing its nuclear programme, the bloc has announced.
Speaking at a meeting of his EU counterparts, the French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, said: 'France and its partners are … justified in reapplying global embargos on arms, banks and nuclear equipment that were lifted 10 years ago. Without a firm, tangible and verifiable commitment from Iran, we will do so by the end of August at the latest.'
Europeans have been largely elbowed aside from the Iranian nuclear issue by Donald Trump, who ordered the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites last month, and this intervention can be seen as an attempt to reassert Europe's influence.
The end of August deadline starts a process that could see an armoury of sanctions reimposed by 15 October, giving European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal – the UK, France and Germany – a continuing lever in negotiations with Iran. The European powers want to see the return of the UN nuclear inspectorate to Iran in part to prevent Iran trying to reconfigure its nuclear programme after the damage inflicted by the US strikes in June.
The way in which the 2015 nuclear deal was negotiated does not allow the other signatories, China or Russia, to veto the sanctions snapback, but the European states can defer the imposition of snapback beyond October to allow time for further consultation.
The US, after leaving the nuclear deal in 2018, also cannot veto the UK or French move. The sanctions snapback would be triggered under chapter V11 of the UN charter, making the reinstatement of six UN resolutions mandatory, including one that requires Iran to suspend all activities related to uranium enrichment and reprocessing, including at the research and development level. Another reimposed resolution would require all UN member states to prevent the transfer of any items, materials or technologies that could serve these activities or Iran's missile programme.
Iranian sanctions experts claim the reinstated resolutions would not automatically halt all Iranian oil exports, cut off Iran's access to international financial systems, or cut off general trade communications. But all countries and international financial institutions would have to refrain from providing financial assistance, new commitments, or preferential loans to the Iranian government, except for humanitarian and development purposes.
Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, has said recently the activation of snapback 'will mean the end of Europe's role in the Iranian nuclear issue and may be the darkest point in the history of Iran's relations with the three European countries; a point that may never be repaired.'
He said: 'It would mark the end of Europe's role as a mediator between Iran and the US.'
He told diplomats at the weekend 'One of the big mistakes of the Europeans is that they think that the 'snapback' tool in their hands gives them the power to act on the Iranian nuclear issue; while this is a completely wrong perception. If these countries move towards snapback, they will make the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue even more complicated and difficult.'