The jobs and tax credits that could disappear if the ‘big, beautiful' House GOP bill passes
House Republicans are proposing to gut energy savings and clean energy tax credits in President Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful' tax bill — funds that are creating thousands of jobs in GOP states and saving homeowners money on their bills.
It's all on the chopping block. The House GOP is moving closer to a final vote on Trump's tax package, before it heads to the Senate.
If Congress passes the tax bill as it stands, it could cost the US more than 830,000 jobs that would otherwise be created in the coming years, the think tank Energy Innovation found. The impacted jobs are mostly in construction and manufacturing, building factories and components for EVs, wind turbines, solar panels, batteries and other clean energy products — the vast majority of which are in GOP states and districts.
It also threatens an eye-popping amount of investment from companies that piggybacked on the passage of the 2022 clean energy bill, also known as the Inflation Reduction Act.
'We're talking about an awful lot of money — approaching a trillion dollars in private sector investment that's either been made or has been planned — that is at risk,' said Robbie Orvis, Energy Innovation's senior director of modeling and analysis.
The threatened funds are in the same places the jobs are at risk; nearly 80% of the investment sparked by the law is in Republican areas, according to data from the Rhodium Group and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Bottom line, that's what the new tax bill is, essentially: a repeal of the clean energy provisions in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, according to independent analysis from the two nonpartisan think tanks.
'It's functionally equivalent to a full-out repeal,' Orvis said, adding the current bill proposed by House Republicans is a 'sledgehammer on steroids.'
It would hurt Republicans the most.
Republicans represent 14 of the top 20 congressional districts that are on the cusp of gaining the most jobs from the law, which was championed by former President Joe Biden.
Tennessee, Georgia and the Carolinas, among others, have gained most of the new jobs in electric vehicle and battery manufacturing and could stand to lose the most if tax credits disappear.
Rep. Mark Amodei, whose Nevada district alone is poised to gain more than 20,000 jobs in mining, refining and processing lithium for EVs and batteries, previously told CNN that continuing to fund these facilities in his district is 'fundamental.'
Orvis said the Republican tax bill could not only hurt future projects, it will likely hurt existing manufacturing facilities as well.
'Some of the proposed language in the (bill) text actually puts existing facilities at risk because they will no longer qualify to receive some of the tax credits that they got financing on,' Orvis said.
The cost of electricity for everyday Americans and businesses would also go up; Energy Innovation found wholesale electricity prices would increase by 50% by 2035. This is in large part because solar and wind energy are cheaper than fossil fuels.
Rhodium's analysis found the GOP bill would slash the amount of new clean energy on the US electric grid by 57-72% through 2035.
Cutting cheaper wind and solar will raise American's energy bills, analysts said.
'You don't worry about (price volatility) with wind and solar; the sun is still free,' Rhodium analyst Ben King told CNN. 'By shifting away from renewables and back to natural gas, you are exposing yourself to price volatility as well.'
Some Republican lawmakers have voiced concerns that repealing the tax credits could hurt electricity generation at a time when the US needs more power than ever. The AI boom is gobbling up electricity for data centers, and companies are on the hunt for electrons wherever they can find them.
That's the central argument solar CEOs have been making to Republican lawmakers as they've pleaded with them to keep the credits intact.
'Solar is the most effective form of energy going forward; it's the fastest and cheapest to market,' said Zaid Ashai, CEO of solar company Nexamp. 'The reality is we're in this economic competition with China. The only way to win the technology and AI race is to be energy independent, and solar is a really key component of that.'
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