
Oil prices recover slightly but US tariffs, OPEC downgrade weigh

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Economic Times
an hour ago
- Economic Times
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Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
Trump doubles tariff on India for Russian crude oil imports; what does it mean for Indian stock market?
US President Donald Trump has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports as a 'penalty' for New Delhi's continued purchase of Russian crude oil. This move takes the total US tariff burden on Indian exports to 50% — 20% higher than that on Chinese goods — significantly denting India's export competitiveness. The new tariff structure, announced late Wednesday, will come into effect after a 21-day grace period, starting August 27, 2025. While this window leaves room for a negotiated resolution, the options appear limited for both sides. 'We expect the markets to fall by 1-2% in a knee-jerk reaction, but most would expect a resolution of the same,' said Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO of HDFC Securities. He estimates that if the tariffs remain in place for a full year, India's GDP could take a 30 – 40 basis point hit. Export-oriented sectors such as IT services, textiles, engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, and auto components are expected to bear the brunt. Additionally, retaliatory tariffs from India could trigger a wider US–India trade conflict, he added. 'Market participants will hope that these negotiations will resolve the issue before the actual implementation of the duties,' Relli said. According to Seshadri Sen, Head of Research and Strategist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, the 21-day buffer period leaves open the possibility of sectoral exemptions or negotiated relief. 'As it stands, this could bring exports from affected sectors - textiles, jewelry, auto ancillaries - to a standstill and hurt some of India's labor-intensive sectors. We, however, see the broader economy staying resilient and remain convinced of a 2HFY26 consumption-led recovery,' Sen said. He advises investors to buy the dip if market correction exceeds 5%, given the limited direct earnings impact on the listed universe and more attractive valuations below long-term averages. Sen identifies the most sectors and stocks impacted by the US tariffs: Textiles: Gokaldas Exports, Kitex Garments Chemicals: Camlin Fine Sciences, Aarti Industries, Atul Ltd Auto Ancillaries: Bharat Forge, Suprajit Engineering, Sona BLW Precision Forgings If India cuts Russian crude imports as part of the settlement, Reliance Industries and the oil marketing companies (OMCs) are vulnerable – also, crude prices could spike, he added. Pharmaceuticals and electronic manufacturing services (EMS) appear to be exempt from the tariff list for now. However, Sen cautions that sentiment around EMS stocks could be impacted depending on an announcement from Apple. Sen outlines a cautious yet opportunistic investment strategy: 1. Look through the near-term volatility. 'Trying to trade this uncertainty is highly risky. There are multiple variables at play – renegotiated tariffs, sectoral carve-outs and carve-ins, and India slowing Russian oil imports.' 2. Minimize exposure to export-oriented and globally exposed sectors. 'Even if the final trade agreement is not as bad as it appears now, a sharp slowdown in the global economy looks inevitable' 3. Buy the dip: If the market correction goes above 5% from here, valuations would then be comfortable at well below the LTA and, the direct impact on the listed universe earnings is negligible. Also, this does not impede India's 2HFY26 cyclical growth recovery, which is largely driven by domestic impulses. 4. Stick to sector preferences: Emkay maintains an overweight (OW) stance on Consumer Discretionary and Industrials, and an underweight (UW) view on Financials, Technology, and Consumer Staples. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.


Economic Times
2 hours ago
- Economic Times
On eve of US tariffs, Brazilian beef exports hit record high in July
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Exports of fresh beef from Brazil reached a record 276,900 metric tons in July, according to trade data on Wednesday, showing a steep rise before a hefty U.S. tariff applied on sales from the world's biggest shipments exceeded those of the same month last year by nearly 17%, surpassing the previous monthly record from October 2024, when 270,300 tons of beef were shipped, the data 12% of Brazil's beef shipments go the United States, its second most important importer after China. Other key markets for Brazil include Mexico and the Middle exporter Astra, which sells 5% of its production to the U.S. from Parana state, said the company sent cargo this week to avoid the new duty, which is valid from ships beef to practically every port in the United States."We don't know what will happen," Diogo Oliveira, Astra's export coordinator, said in an interview. "My U.S. volume, although small, was consistent. And from September onward, I don't know if we'll have more business."Brazil's beef sales have steadily grown this year, with strong demand from major the first half, Brazil sent 181,400 tons of beef to the U.S. alone, which faces a persistent cattle shortage, and another 631,800 tons to the Chinese market.