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We Need an FAA for Artificial Intelligence

We Need an FAA for Artificial Intelligence

Bloomberg7 days ago
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Let's say you helped invent a revolutionary ice cube that stays frozen forever. Everyone from food manufacturers to Big Pharma wants to get their hands on the recipe. Your boss — let's call her Pam Saltman — says your company's sole mission is to ensure that your ice cubes benefit all of humanity. You love that idea, but when a recruiter for your main competitor offers you $300 million — enough money to buy the entire Red Hot Chili Peppers catalog — you're tempted to hop jobs, even though forever-frozen ice is just one aspect of their business. Do you sell out, or do you stick with the feel-good mission of your current employer?
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Discernment Under Pressure: The Decision Making Skill Most Leaders Skip
Discernment Under Pressure: The Decision Making Skill Most Leaders Skip

Forbes

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Discernment Under Pressure: The Decision Making Skill Most Leaders Skip

man thinking under confusing sign, This is a set of business illustrations Leaders are making more decisions than ever, but many feel less confident in their judgment. McKinsey reports that executives now spend nearly 40% of their time making decisions, yet most say that time is poorly used. What's missing isn't speed or volume. It's clarity. And most leadership environments reward performance more than discernment. We've built cultures where polish gets mistaken for substance, where confidence gets rewarded even when reflection is skipped. But real judgment isn't built in fast-moving meetings or on-the-spot soundbites. It grows through consequence, pressure, and the discipline to examine what shaped a choice. We often confuse decisiveness with strength and clarity with confidence. But discernment is something else entirely. Discernment is the ability to notice subtle cues, question surface-level certainty, and choose with awareness rather than instinct or habit. It's not intuition, and it's not just analysis. It's the leadership discipline of seeing clearly when timelines are tight, when pressure is high, and when the cost of a wrong move is real. Most leaders aren't trained to build it. Many haven't been given the time, space, or expectation to practice it. How Judgment Gets Built That idea came up in a conversation I had with Gary Klein, one of the world's foremost decision scientists. Klein has studied decision-making in some of the most demanding conditions—firefighting, combat, intensive care, and intelligence work. He's advised the White House on the design of the Situation Room, worked with the military, and authored foundational books like Sources of Power and Seeing What Others Don't. His research shaped the field of Naturalistic Decision Making, which focuses on how professionals make decisions in real-world conditions, not just in theory. He also developed the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model, which explains how experienced leaders often don't weigh every option. They spot patterns, mentally play out what's likely to happen, and move. That kind of judgment can look intuitive, but it's shaped by experience—not guesswork. In his book Sources of Power, Klein described it simply: 'Experts don't calculate. They imagine.' That mental simulation—built from exposure and reflection—is often what separates quick decisions from wise ones. Psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer calls this ecological rationality—a kind of intuition that works because it's trained in the real world. It's not blind instinct. It's recognition built from paying attention over time. Like Klein, he sees judgment as something earned. Discernment means knowing when that instinct is trustworthy, and when it needs to be questioned. The Myth Of Experience One of Klein's most enduring critiques is that experience is not the same as expertise. Just because someone has held a senior role doesn't mean they've developed discernment. Gallup's leadership research supports this. The most effective leaders are often not the ones with the longest resumes. They're the ones who have led through failure, adapted after mistakes, and taken time to reflect on what actually changed. But in many leadership cultures, reflection is rare. Decisions are made, the next task appears, and there's little pause to examine what worked or what missed. Without that pause, patterns don't shift and blind spots remain hidden. Executives might feel productive, but judgment doesn't deepen without honest feedback from outcomes. Repeating decisions without reflecting on them isn't experience—it's rehearsal. As Klein has noted in previous work, 'A lot of people have twenty years of experience. But it's one year of experience repeated twenty times.' Simulations, Doubt, And Real Growth Many organizations use simulations in leadership development. The intent is to replicate pressure, but Klein questions whether they actually do. 'They don't disorient,' he told me. 'They don't provoke reflection. They often just test whether someone can follow instructions.' The most valuable simulations aren't smooth. They challenge assumptions. They trigger doubt. They highlight what leaders don't notice. Good simulations leave leaders unsettled in productive ways. Klein has long emphasized that 'One of the most important qualities of a decision-maker is the ability to question their own assumptions.' Simulations that surface this kind of internal challenge are rare—but essential. They raise the kinds of questions that point toward discernment: Klein emphasized that development comes from choosing before you feel ready and staying close to what the decision reveals. It's not about completing the exercise. It's about learning from the edge of discomfort. He is also known for creating the pre-mortem method. Before starting a major initiative, imagine it has failed. Then ask why. In fact he advocates for a double barreled pre mortem – in addition to a pre-mortem envisioning a plan that failed, consider running a pre-mortem envisioning a failure resulting from not implementing the plan. The point isn't to cultivate fear. It's to examine what might be fragile before reality makes it obvious. But not all teams are open to it. Klein told me about a military group that refused the pre-mortem method, worried it would hurt morale. That resistance is revealing. Many leadership settings still treat doubt as weakness. In truth, doubt is a signal of awareness. It helps surface what might go unexamined. Not every decision needs to be questioned, but more of them need to be tested for what hasn't been said or seen. Some of the worst decisions in history came from strong convictions that were never questioned. Think about the Challenger shuttle tragedy or the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. They didn't fail from lack of confidence. They failed because no one stopped to turn them sideways. But there are also moments when discernment rises to meet the moment. Klein has pointed to one of the clearest: the 2009 'Miracle on the Hudson,' when Captain Chesley 'Sully' Sullenberger safely ditched his Airbus A320 after a catastrophic bird strike shut down both engines shortly after takeoff. No script. No checklist. Just seconds to decide. And a lifetime of judgment compressed into one impossible call. Klein saw that moment not as luck, but as evidence of practiced discernment under pressure. The kind built not by following procedures, but by seeing what mattered when everything else fell away. What AI Still Can't Do When we spoke about artificial intelligence, Klein offered a direct view. 'These systems don't understand. They're trained to respond. That's not the same as thinking.' AI can process language and mimic fluency. But it doesn't feel risk. It doesn't notice absence. It doesn't sense hesitation or consequence. 'Judgment requires skin in the game,' he said. 'Not digital. Neural.' AI may support decision-making. But it cannot form judgment. That still belongs to the person who makes the choice and lives with what it reveals. The Practice Of Discernment The best leaders I've worked with tend to start by sensing. They slow down. They pay attention to discomfort. They listen for what hasn't been said. They look for tension between what seems fine and what doesn't feel right. That's where discernment begins. Not in data alone, but in the gaps we're willing to look into. Many leadership programs emphasize strategic planning, stakeholder influence, and polished communication. Those matter. But discernment grows in different soil. It's shaped by quieter, less scripted questions: These aren't just reflections. They are indicators of whether judgment is being formed or performed. Gallup's research highlights key leadership experiences that accelerate growth. But not all experience qualifies. The moments that stretch judgment tend to have a few things in common. They often include: These experiences rarely feel developmental in real time. They feel messy. But they change what leaders pay attention to. They adjust how confidence is expressed. They leave behind a quieter kind of clarity. Judgment isn't visible on a dashboard. It doesn't fit neatly into performance reviews. But it shapes the strength of decisions under pressure. Leaders today are working with faster timelines, greater visibility, and higher consequences. There's less room for error, and fewer chances to hide behind performance. Klein reminded me that good decisions don't come from knowing more. They come from seeing better. That kind of seeing takes presence, attention, and reflection. 'You can't teach good decisions. But you can help people see better,' he told me. That's where discernment begins. Discernment in decision making isn't a bonus skill. It underwrites all the others. And it doesn't grow through repetition or rhetoric. It develops in pressure, in recovery and in the moments when you're still looking long after others have already moved on.

This 55-Inch Hisense 4K CanvasTV Is a Massive $311 Off for a Limited Time
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This 55-Inch Hisense 4K CanvasTV Is a Massive $311 Off for a Limited Time

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