Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg's Chances of Beating JD Vance in 2028: Poll
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A new poll shows potential 2028 presidential election matchups between Vice President JD Vance and prominent Democratic leaders as next year's midterm campaigns are on the horizon.
Why It Matters
Early polls, especially in crucial swing states, have gained significance as potential contenders for the 2028 presidential election begin to emerge.
Even with the election still a few years away, polling could offer insight into candidate viability, voter sentiment and evolving party dynamics, particularly after the pivotal 2024 election cycle.
What To Know
In the poll released Tuesday by SoCal Strategies and sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom secured 39 percent in a potential matchup with Vance, who landed 37 percent. The survey shows 23 percent were undecided in the matchup.
In a race against former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Vance trailed with 37 percent of the vote compared to Buttigieg's 41 percent. The survey shows 21 percent were undecided.
The poll surveyed 700 U.S. adults on August 18. "The survey was weighted by age, gender, race, education, and 2024 vote to match the Bonfire National Voter File," the pollster noted.
ESPN host Stephen A. Smith also came close to Vance in the survey, receiving 35 percent of the vote compared to Vance's 37 percent.
Previous polling has shown Vance as the clear GOP primary front-runner. The field is more crowded for Democrats, as former Vice President Kamala Harris, Newsom and Buttigieg all are early top contenders.
Tuesday's poll also shows President Donald Trump's overall approval rating at 45 percent versus a disapproval rating of 48 percent.
California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks on the state's redistricting plans at a news conference on August 14 in Los Angeles. (Photo by)
California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks on the state's redistricting plans at a news conference on August 14 in Los Angeles. (Photo by)
What People Are Saying
Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro, to Newsweek via email on Tuesday: "It is of course much too early to tell anything significant from this other than the 2028 election is likely to be close just like the last presidential elections. See the high percent undecided as well.
"The data may suggest that Vance is not as strong a candidate as Donald Trump, but we would need to compare the hypothetical of Trump running for an imaginary third term against Newsom or Buttigieg. Regardless of what might happen in the midterm election, it looks like 2028 will be another nail biter..."
Trump, while answering questions during a news conference on the 2028 Olympics, when directly asked if Vance is the successor to MAGA: "Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he's the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here, so it's too early obviously to talk about it but certainly he's doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point."
What Happens Next
Pollsters and analysts were expected to release additional national and state-level surveys in the coming months as midterm campaigning ramps up.
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