US weekly jobless claims increase moderately amid low layoffs
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose marginally last week, suggesting the labor market remains resilient despite darkening clouds over the economy caused by tariffs on imported goods.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 222,000 for the week ended April 19, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 222,000 claims for the latest week.
The data included the Good Friday holiday, which was later this year compared to 2024. Claims tend to be volatile around moving holidays. They could also have been influenced by spring breaks which occur at different times across the states.
Economists expect President Donald Trump's often erratic trade policy will at some point this year weaken the labor market. Business confidence has deteriorated and financial conditions have tightened, leaving companies reluctant to hire more workers.
Since the "Liberation Day" tariffs announcement early this month, Trump has delayed reciprocal duties on more than 50 trade partners by 90 days, while raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. Beijing retaliated with duties of its own, unleashing a trade war between the two economic giants.
Trump maintained a 10% universal tariff on nearly all trading partners as well as 25% duties on automobiles, steel and aluminum. The tariffs, which Trump sees as a tool to raise revenue to offset his promised tax cuts and to revive a long-declining U.S. industrial base, have stoked fears of high inflation and stagnation in economic growth.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on Wednesday showed "several districts reported that firms were taking a wait-and-see approach to employment, pausing or slowing hiring until there is more clarity on economic conditions."
It added there were "scattered reports of firms preparing for layoffs" and "notable" decreases in government employment "or at organizations receiving government funding."
The Trump administration is in the midst of an unprecedented campaign to shrink the federal government through mass firings and deep spending cuts. The often chaotic layoffs, driven by billionaire tech Elon Mask's Department of Government Efficiency, have so far not impacted the broader labor market.
Low layoffs are anchoring the labor market and keeping the economic expansion on track.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.841 million during the week ending April 12, the claims report showed.
The so-called continuing claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed households for April's unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is currently at 4.2%, having risen from 4.0% in January.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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The National
an hour ago
- The National
Trump warns Iran: US military will unleash 'full strength' if it attacks
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Middle East Eye
an hour ago
- Middle East Eye
By allowing Israel to bomb Iran, Trump is pushing Tehran to go nuclear
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Trump said the US would not tolerate a North Korea in the Gulf, but that is what he might achieve by allowing Israel to bomb Iran. Even if this war stops, the price of peace and the stabilisation of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme has just gone up. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
Al Etihad
2 hours ago
- Al Etihad
Iran-Israel tensions: Analysts optimistic about stability of oil supplies
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But analysts at S&P Global and Goldman Sachs expect such price volatility to be temporary, barring direct attacks on energy infrastructure. 'We've seen these spikes before. Prices jump, then retreat when it's clear that oil flows are not actually impacted,' said Richard Joswick, Head of Near-Term Oil Analysis at S&P this outlook is the presence of alternative logistics. The UAE's Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, for instance, enables crude to bypass Hormuz altogether. Long-term LNG supply contracts between China and exporters like Qatar and the UAE also offer stability and reduce reliance on spot risk insurance premiums in the Arabian Gulf, which cover ships navigating high-risk zones, remain steady at 0.05%–0.07% of vessel hull value — unchanged for 18 months. Though freight charges could rise if hostilities deepen, there is no current indication of a shipping refiners are the largest buyers of Gulf crude. 'Extreme actions could provoke responses from Asian military powers. So both Iran and Israel are likely to exercise caution,' said a Tokyo-based feedstock manager. Refiners in South Korea, Japan, and Thailand have echoed similar sentiments, underscoring confidence that the Strait of Hormuz will stay Goldman Sachs, while adjusting its geopolitical risk premium, predicts Brent crude to fall back to the $60s in 2026, assuming no long-term infrastructure damage and a compensatory output from OPEC+.In a potential escalation scenario, Goldman estimates a temporary loss of 1.75 million b/d from Iran if its export infrastructure is damaged — but believes this shortfall could be partially offset by OPEC+ spare capacity. Under such conditions, Brent could peak over $90/b, before normalising as supply recovers.S&P Global concurs that the real inflection point would be a direct disruption to exports. 'Unless exports are impacted, the price upside will fade,' its analysts noted. Joswick reinforced this by citing 2024, when similar flare-ups triggered short-term price movements that quickly reversed once it became clear supply was Pollack, vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute, noted: 'If Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the US would come in with all guns blazing.' Analysts warn that such a move would not only provoke military responses but would be viewed by Gulf neighbours as a direct economic threat.'There is no doubt the situation in the Arabian Gulf is very tense. We have reports that more shipowners are now exercising extra caution and are opting to stay away from the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf,' said Jakob P Larsen, Chief Safety & Security Officer at BIMCO, the world's largest international shipping association.'There is currently no indication that Iran will seek to disrupt shipping in the Gulf, and no indication at this point that the Houthis will seek to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea. The tripwire will be the perception of the US' involvement. If the US is suddenly perceived to be involved in attacks, the risk of escalation increases significantly,' Larsen told Aletihad.'BIMCO encourages shipowners to follow developments closely and implement ship defence measures according to the industry guidance document,' he added. Meanwhile, broader OPEC+ dynamics are also at play. Eight OPEC+ member states are moving to restore 2.2 million b/d of curtailed output to regain their market share. 'We'll likely see more unwinding of voluntary cuts,' said Harry Tchiliguirian, Head of Research at Onyx Capital Advisory. This will likely have a mitigating impact on oil prices.
