Wacky March has brought biggest snow of season, record warmth and storms to Minnesota
The old phrase for March, "in like a lion, out like a lamb" doesn't seem to apply this year. On a national and Minnesota level, it's been an active month.
We've had our biggest snow storm of the entire season, record warmth, and severe storms all within a couple weeks! Even for March in Minnesota, that is extreme.
Last weekend saw incredible record warmth and an unusually deadly severe weather outbreak, all a part of the same system of weather. It appears at least three dozen people were killed in severe storms March 14-16. There were 182 reports of tornadoes over the course of that 3 day period.
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While Minnesota had just one severe thunderstorm report (58 mph wind gust picked up in Fairmont Friday evening, March 14), the heat we experienced helped to fuel the record-breaking setup.
Rapid attribution analyses have become key to understanding climate change's impacts on these specific events, or at least their elements. We know the temperatures on March 14 were made 2 to 4 times more likely due to climate change.
Not only did we break the record for the date of 73 degrees set in 2012, but it was the earliest we had ever reached 75 degrees. Those new 'heat thresholds' are more important and sobering stats than daily records.
While the low pressure didn't quite break records, it got close for Kansas, Nebraska and Minnesota, within a few millibars (how we measure air pressure).
It might be hard to imagine how a 75 degree, sunny day can create such havoc, but it's the energy or fuel for any setup that a storm system can then take advantage of. The more heat, the more storm potential.
We measure thunderstorm potential energy by a term called C.A.P.E. or convective available potential energy. This is a measure of instability. The primary driver of instability with thunderstorms is both heat and moisture (temperature and dew point). The "spark" is an atmospheric disturbance or storm system that provides the forcing.
The number of days with C.A.P.E. now above 1,000 J/kg (a good threshold for the difference between a garden variety thunderstorm and potentially severe storms) has changed by as much as 10 more days in eastern Minnesota. In those areas most affected by the 'Ides of March' storms it's as much as 20 additional days in a year.
The storm was so intense, that it sucked wildfire smoke from the central and southern Plains into Chicago and Milwaukee, creating 'red' or unhealthy air quality Saturday, March 15. It is extremely rare to have that kind of air quality this early, that far north
Let's hope March 2025 isn't an indicator of what's to come the remainder of spring and summer but given the trajectory of temperatures and extreme events we should probably be prepared for more bumpy weather.
BMTN Note: Weather events in isolation can't always be pinned on climate change, but the broader trend of increasingly severe weather and record-breaking extremes seen in Minnesota and across the globe can be attributed directly to the rapidly warming climate caused by human activity. The IPCC has warned that Earth is "firmly on track toward an unlivable world," and says greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 in order to limit warming to 1.5C, which would prevent the most catastrophic effects on humankind. You can read more here.
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