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US: Stocks mostly rise on Tuesday but UnitedHealth weighs on Dow

US: Stocks mostly rise on Tuesday but UnitedHealth weighs on Dow

Business Times13-05-2025

[NEW YORK] Wall Street stocks mostly rose on Tuesday after data showed US inflation easing in April, extending the market's positive momentum on the improving outlook for trade relations with major partners.
The consumer price index eased to 2.3 per cent in April from a year ago, a tick below the 2.4 per cent figure recorded in March.
Some analysts cautioned that it was still too early to see the implications of US President Donald Trump's tariff policies, some of which have been rolled back or suspended.
The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index led major indices, jumping 1.6 per cent to 19,010.08
The broad-based S&P 500 gained 0.7 per cent to 5,886.65, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6 per cent to 42,140.43 after weakness in UnitedHealth Group stocks.
Markets continued to cheer the US-China announcement Monday of a de-escalation of trade tensions. The two countries agreed to much lower levies for 90 days while they work to hash out an agreement.
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'It seems as if the euphoria that was ignited yesterday or over the weekend has continued into today at least for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq,' said Sam Stovall of CFRA Research.
The benign US inflation data also furthers the odds the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2025, Stovall said.
Among individual companies, UnitedHealth Group sank 17.8 per cent after announcing that Andrew Witty was stepping down as CEO for personal reasons, to be replaced by Chair Stephen Hemsley.
The company also suspended its 2025 outlook, citing higher-than-expected costs.
Hertz plunged 16.9 per cent after reporting weaker-than-expected results, including a quarterly loss of US$443 million. AFP

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BYD unleashes an EV industry reckoning that alarms Beijing
BYD unleashes an EV industry reckoning that alarms Beijing

Straits Times

time33 minutes ago

  • Straits Times

BYD unleashes an EV industry reckoning that alarms Beijing

The Chinese government is trying to prevent price cuts by market leader BYD from turning into a vicious spiral. PHOTO: REUTERS BEIJING - The price war engulfing China's electric vehicle (EV) industry has sent share prices tumbling and prompted an unusual level of intervention from Beijing. The shakeout may just be getting started. For all the Chinese government's efforts to prevent price cuts by market leader BYD from turning into a vicious spiral, analysts say a combination of weaker demand and extreme overcapacity will slice into profits at the strongest brands and force feebler competitors to fold. Even after the number of EV makers starting shrinking for the first time in 2024, the industry is still using less than half its production capacity. Chinese authorities are trying to minimise the fallout, chiding the sector for 'rat race competition' and summoning heads of major brands to Beijing last week. Yet previous attempts to intervene have had little success. For the short term at least, investors are betting few automakers will escape unscathed: BYD, arguably the biggest winner from industry consolidation, has lost US$21.5 billion (S$27.7 billion) in market value since its shares peaked in late May. 'What you're seeing in China is disturbing, because there's a lack of demand and extreme price cutting,' said John Murphy, a senior automotive analyst at Bank of America Corp. Eventually there will be 'massive consolidation' to soak up the excess capacity, Mr Murphy said. For automakers, relentless discounting erodes profit margins, undermines brand value and forces even well-capitalised companies into unsustainable financial positions. Low-priced and low-quality products can seriously damage the international reputation of 'Made-in-China' cars, the People's Daily, an outlet controlled by the Communist Party, said. And that knock would come just as models from BYD to Geely, Zeekr and Xpeng start to collect accolades on the world stage. For consumers, price drops may seem beneficial but they mask deeper risks. Unpredictable pricing discourages long-term trust – already people are complaining on China's social media, wondering why they should buy a car now when it may be cheaper next week – while there's a chance automakers, as they cut costs to stay afloat, may reduce investment in quality, safety and after-sales service. Auto CEOs were told last week they must 'self-regulate' and shouldn't sell cars below cost or offer unreasonable price cuts, according to people familiar with the matter. The issue of zero-mileage cars also came up – where vehicles with no distance on their odometers are sold by dealers into the second-hand market, seen widely as a way for automakers to artificially inflate sales and clear inventory. Chinese automakers have been discounting a lot more aggressively than their foreign counterparts. Mr Murphy said US automakers should just get out. 'Tesla probably needs to be there to compete with those companies and understand what's going on, but there's a lot of risk there for them.' Others leave no room for doubt that BYD, China's No. 1 selling car brand, is the culprit. 'It's obvious to everyone that the biggest player is doing this,' Jochen Siebert, managing director at auto consultancy JSC Automotive, said. 'They want a monopoly where everybody else gives up.' BYD's aggressive tactics are raising concerns over the potential dumping of cars, dealership management issues and 'squeezing out suppliers,' he said. The pricing turmoil is also unfolding against a backdrop of significant overcapacity. The average production utilization rate in China's automotive industry was mere 49.5 per cent in 2024, data compiled by Shanghai-based Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute show. An April report by AlixPartners meanwhile highlights the intense competition that's starting to emerge among new energy vehicle makers, or companies that produce pure battery cars and plug-in hybrids. In 2024, the market saw its first ever consolidation among NEV-dedicated brands, with 16 exiting and 13 launching. Jiyue Auto shows how quickly things can change. A little over a year after launching its first car, the automaker jointly backed by big names Zhejiang Geely Holding Group and technology giant Baidu, began to scale down production and seek fresh funds. It's a dilemma for all carmakers, but especially smaller ones. 'If you don't follow suit once a leading company makes a price move, you might lose the chance to stay at the table,' AlixPartners consultant Zhang Yichao said. He added that China's low capacity utilization rate, which is 'fundamentally fueling' the competition, is now even under more pressure from export uncertainties. While the push to find an outlet for excess production is thrusting more Chinese brands to export, international markets can only offer some relief. 'The US market is completely closed and Japan and Korea may close very soon if they see an invasion of Chinese carmakers,' Mr Siebert said. 'Russia, which was the biggest export market last year, is now becoming very difficult. I also don't see South-east Asia as an opportunity anymore.' The pressure of cost cutting has also led analysts to express concern over supply chain finance risks. A price cut demand by BYD to one of its suppliers late in 2024 attracted scrutiny around how the car giant may be using supply chain financing to mask its ballooning debt. A report by accounting consultancy GMT Research put BYD's true net debt at closer to 323 billion yuan (S$57.9 billion), compared with the 27.7 billion yuan officially on its books as of the end of June 2024. The pain is also bleeding into China's dealdership network. Dealership groups in two provinces have gone out of business since April, both of them ones that were selling BYD cars. Beijing's meeting with automakers last week wasn't the first attempt at a ceasefire. Two years ago, in mid 2023, 16 major automakers, including Tesla Inc., BYD and Geely signed a pact, witnessed by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, to avoid 'abnormal pricing.' Within days though, CAAM deleted one of the four commitments, saying that a reference to pricing in the pledge was inappropriate and in breach of a principle enshrined in the nation's antitrust laws. BLOOMBERG Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.

Private assets giant Brookfield expects alternative investments to replace public markets in 25 years
Private assets giant Brookfield expects alternative investments to replace public markets in 25 years

Business Times

timean hour ago

  • Business Times

Private assets giant Brookfield expects alternative investments to replace public markets in 25 years

[SINGAPORE] Bruce Flatt, the billionaire chief executive officer of Toronto-based Brookfield, is understandably bullish on the prospects of alternative investments. The Canadian investment giant has, after all, amassed more than US$1 trillion in assets under management (AUM), and is one of the world's largest managers of alternative assets, also commonly known as private markets. Flatt foresees that, in 25 years, more retail investors would be channelling their funds to private assets, and the asset class would then no longer be billed as 'alternative'. The 59-year-old, who was in Singapore recently, told The Business Times: 'Fifty per cent of most individuals' retail accounts will have private investments in them. And this is a wholesale change of retirement savings accounts around the world ... so owning private businesses should be called 'mainstream' over the next 25 years.' When that happens, fixed income and equities would become known as alternative assets, he said. Recalling when he first pitched private markets to institutional investors 25 years ago, he said he had described the asset class as nascent. It has since then become mainstream for deep-pocketed investors such as GIC and Temasek Holdings. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Private markets are growing in popularity, as more countries are allowing retail investors to dabble in the asset class, potentially unlocking additional billions worth of funds. Singapore's central bank is assessing feedback to its proposal, made in late March, to broaden retail investors' access to private markets. Institutional investors such as pension funds, insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds have also entered the fray, allocating more capital to private markets, which have been shown to outperform public-market assets in the long term. More funds flowing into private markets, coupled with the trend of falling initial public offerings on world exchanges, have led to bullish growth forecasts for alternative assets. One of the most bullish is from Bain; it predicts private markets growing at more than twice the rate of public markets, with AUM hitting as high as US$65 trillion in 2032. Singapore expansion Even then, the size of private markets pales in comparison with that of public ones. Data provider Ocorian noted that the total AUM in global public markets stood at US$230 trillion in 2024, compared to the US$12.7 trillion in private assets. Flatt is confident that Brookfield will capture a sizeable chunk of the business out of Singapore. Its office in the city-state is 'a (regional) hub servicing clients and looking after institutional, retail and individual investors – it's a very important city for us', he said, adding that Brookfield sources about a third of its capital for its overall business out of the Asia-Pacific. Flatt said about half the team works on Singapore deals, and the rest are focused on the Asia-Pacific, where Brookfield's AUM is US$146 billion, about 13.5 per cent of its total. The company does not break down AUM by countries. Singapore's AUM is small, but the Brookfield team working on it has shot up from four in 2014, when its office first opened in the Republic, to more than 40 today. To accommodate further expansion, Brookfield is moving to a bigger office in CapitaGreen, a 40-storey Grade-A office tower in the central business district, this month. Together with its subsidiary Oaktree Capital Management, Brookfield will occupy a floor. The extra space will enable the firm and Oaktree to grow to more than 100 staff in the next three to five years. Despite having been in Singapore for more than 10 years, Brookfield sealed its first transaction in the country only last month. It bought three industrial properties from Mapletree Industrial Trust for S$535.3 million, paying a 2.6 per cent premium over their combined independent valuation. Why did Brookfield take so long? Flatt said that as a value investor, Brookfield assesses the current investment environment to be 'much more agreeable' than in 2014, when a lot of capital was chasing assets in the market. In addition, 'it always takes us a long time to get people in place and to be comfortable investing' from when Brookfield first built a hub in Singapore. Eyeing more deals in Singapore With a decade-long presence and the Mapletree transaction, he is confident of a higher number of transactions in the next 10 to 20 years. 'We're a lot more experienced, we have our relationships here, we know all the businesses and companies, institutions, and therefore the future of the business should be much more substantial because of that.' Referring to Brookfield's key focus on real estate, infrastructure, renewable energy, industrial, private equity and private credit, the billionaire chief said 'all the above are open for business' when the firm scours for deals in Singapore. Flatt started his career in Brascan, Brookfield's predecessor, at age 25 back in 1990, and worked his way up to the C-suite in 2002. Since then, he has been credited with expanding Brookfield's presence to more than 30 countries. And with the 2019 acquisition of a majority stake in Oaktree, he also helped propel Brookfield into the ranks of the world's top alternative-asset managers. 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China's copper boom under threat as miners test bargaining power
China's copper boom under threat as miners test bargaining power

Business Times

timean hour ago

  • Business Times

China's copper boom under threat as miners test bargaining power

[BEIJING] The unrelenting expansion of Chinese copper processing capacity over the past few years has now become a global headache, as smelters scramble to secure the ore they need to produce the vital industrial metal. Output in the world's top producer of the refined metal has ballooned to a record this year, even in the face of trade tensions wars that are clouding the outlook for demand. The resulting competition has handed bargaining power to some of the world's largest miners. Copper treatment charges, typically a key earner for processors, have plunged deep below zero on the spot market. Chilean miner Antofagasta has proposed negative charges for contracted supplies to smelters in the second half. The fraught situation for smelters worldwide is fuelling expectations of cuts – Glencore shut a facility in the Philippines in February. It's also focusing market attention on the surprising resilience of China's output, and raising the question of how long that can last. Analysts and industry executives say China's output is more resistant to financial pressures because it is now dominated by state-owned producers and by relatively large, efficient and low-cost smelters. Three major new plants were opened just last year, more than offsetting the pain felt by more modest operations. But there's also a still-substantial segment of China's market that is made up of smaller, privately owned smelters with more exposure to a tightening spot market. CRU Group says those plants account for about a quarter of the country's output. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'Even if you have very deep pockets and are willing to operate at a loss, at the end of the day you might have to cut production because you simply cannot get the copper concentrate,' said Craig Lang, principal analyst at CRU Group. The stakes are high for the global copper smelting industry. With all high-cost facilities facing losses, every ton that resists financial pressure in China means more pain for those elsewhere. Spot treatment charges to process concentrate fell to negative levels in December, and reached minus US$60 a tonne last month. The fees are deducted from the cost of concentrate and ordinarily make up a large chunk of smelter revenues. Term supplies are now threatening to slide into negative territory too, meaning smelters are effectively paying more for copper ore than the value of the metal contained in it. In February, when fees were less punitive than they are now, Glencore chief executive officer Gary Nagle said he wouldn't keep open loss-making copper plants. The company mothballed a smelter in the Philippines and is cutting costs at plants in Canada. Older European copper smelters could be at risk, while Japanese plants may be sheltered due to their parent companies' stakes in Chilean mines, said Grant Sporre, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. 'It's going to be a tough battle for survival.' Outlook worsening Granted, the plunge in fees is partly due to relatively slow growth in mine output worldwide – but it's primarily driven by the rapid increase in smelting capacity. China's refined copper output is set to rise 10 per cent in the first half of this year and nearly 5 per cent for the full year, according to researcher Shanghai Metals Market. The argument for China's resilient output rests largely on the belief that state-owned plants are protected because local governments want to safeguard jobs and the economy. 'This is a consequence of an economic model that is less responsive to prevailing market conditions as plants can run on very thin margins – or even make losses – for extended periods of time,' Savant, a joint venture by Marex Group and geospatial analysis company Earth-i, said in a note last month. Although cutting overcapacity across the Chinese economy has become a more important policy priority for Beijing recently, so called 'future-friendly' industries such as copper, a metal required for electrification and so for the energy transition, are being given more leeway than sectors seen to be in structural decline, such as oil refining. For producers outside China, there is no such cushion. The suspension of Ivanhoe Mines' Kakula copper mine in central Africa has been a blow to ore supply – and at the same time developments such as the ramp-up of Freeport McMoRan's Manyar smelter in Indonesia are adding more refining capacity to the market. Big smelters may still be able to maintain production for now, following some years of healthy cash flow, said Yongcheng Zhao, an analyst at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. The less-efficient ones, though, are at risk. BLOOMBERG

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