Penguins, Kyle Dubas can spend to the NHL salary cap. That doesn't mean they should

New York Times

27-02-2025

Everything changed for the Penguins during the 2008 NHL All-Star break.
General manager Ray Shero alerted a room full of executives — team co-owners Mario Lemieux and Ron Burkle, CEO Ken Sawyer and president David Morehouse — that the best player on the host city's team, Marián Hossa, was on the trade block. Shero was confident he could pry Hossa from the Atlanta Thrashers.
Advertisement
Burkle, a multi-billionaire businessman, didn't know the slightest about Hossa. He wanted to know only whether Hossa could put the upstart Penguins over the top.
Shero answered yes, with a caveat: The move would require trading young players and draft picks for a potential rental player with a $6 million salary cap hit, which did not fit in with the five-year plan Shero laid out when he interviewed for the GM opening a year and a half prior.
Burkle could not have cared less about that plan. If the Penguins were ahead of schedule and Hossa was a missing piece, Burkle wanted Shero to get him — internal budget be damned.
This laid the foundation for the Penguins, a lower-revenue franchise, to begin spending to the salary cap. They've spent to the cap every season since.
GO DEEPER
Everything we know about Penguins ownership's investor search
Kyle Dubas, the third man to succeed Shero as GM, will have the same option when the salary cap increases substantially over the next three seasons. Fenway Sports Group, which bought the Penguins in 2021, is seeking deep-pocketed investors. But even if those investors don't emerge — or FSG doesn't fancy the offers — Dubas will still be able to spend to the salary cap.
Should he do it?
No.
That might not win points with coach Mike Sullivan, captain Sidney Crosby or even fans and corporate sponsors. Dubas is paid handsomely — on a contract with five seasons left — and part of the gig is making difficult decisions.
This one shouldn't be difficult, though.
The Penguins are a near-lock to miss the playoffs for the third consecutive season. They'll probably do so by a far larger margin than each of the last two seasons. Aside from Crosby homing in on Lemieux's franchise records for goals and points and Evgeni Malkin playing likely his last season, the most interesting part about next season will be the prospects Dubas has acquired since trading Jake Guentzel about a year ago.
Advertisement
A lot would have to go right — almost everything, actually — for the Penguins to end their postseason drought next season or even the season after. Dubas would be best served to keep between $6 million to $8 million in cap space available, and if his roster is in a solid playoff position going into the midway point in either of the next two seasons, he should reward coaches and players by adding before the trade deadline.
The smart play is to dangle the carrot, not toss it into the stew.
Dubas having the agency to make the Penguins a so-called cap team doesn't mean he should do it. Restraint is his best approach. Patience is his strongest strategy.
This isn't to suggest Dubas shouldn't spend in free agency this summer or next summer. He should, but only on players willing to accept one-season contracts. He should buy to rent, a concept that only applies to GMs in a hard-capped league. Sign 'em to sell 'em.
The whole point of a rebuild — not that anyone within the Penguins dares to whisper that word — is to build toward something great. The lesson from early Crosby-era Penguins is to strike when the time is right.
That probably won't be anytime soon.
GO DEEPER
Salary cap to jump from $88 million to $113.5 million over next 3 seasons
There's a popular theory, particularly among former players with a platform, that the Penguins need to do right by Crosby and spend to build a contender in his twilight. It's a nice thought, but it's also a fantasy.
The Penguins have done right by Crosby. They front-loaded his current contract when it couldn't be insured against concussion. They kept his best friends, Malkin and Kris Letang, and extended Sullivan, his preferred coach. He gets a say in team travel. He has free range of the team's practice facility. Dubas met with Crosby before becoming GM, not vice versa.
Crosby has earned all of it. He's given his heart, soul, blood and tears to the Penguins.
Advertisement
He's also never counted more than $8.7 million against the cap, and that will continue on his two-season contract extension that kicks in this summer.
Since his second NHL contract, which went into effect during the 2008-09 season, Crosby's annual cap discount has afforded Penguins GMs the luxury to retain future Hall-of-Famers (Malkin, Letang), re-sign his favorite wingers (Chris Kunitz, Guentzel), and take big swings in the offseason (Erik Karlsson) or at the trade deadline (Bill Guerin). All of those decisions were made to chase the Cup.
Here's the thing: For 16 consecutive seasons, the Penguins were a Cup contender — and for many of those years, they were a favorite.
They aren't anymore. I'm guessing Crosby knows it even if he won't publicly say it. He said he doesn't want to leave. He said he's not going to leave. It's time to believe him.
It's also time for the Penguins — meaning Dubas, who has autonomy from FSG — to do what's best for business. That means going back to the way things were before the 2008 All-Star break.
Don't waste the NHL's most valuable asset. Don't spend to the cap until the roster is ready to chase the Stanley Cup.
GO DEEPER
Why Mike Sullivan is 'made for this job' as Team USA coach
The sooner there is a full commitment to that pursuit, the sooner this proud franchise will be back where it wants to be.
Dubas should continue acquiring future assets and allowing prospects to mature. He can't avoid mistakes, but he shouldn't risk any unforced errors. That includes spending to the cap just to create the illusion of a contender during the transition from this era to the next.
This is the best way the Penguins can do right by Crosby.
He'll probably play at a high level beyond the length of his next contract. He's a unicorn.
The job over the next two seasons is to give Crosby the rarest of opportunities — to stick around and show the next good Penguins team how to become great.
(Photo of Kyle Dubas courtesy of the Pittsburgh Penguins)