India, Trump just wasn't that into you

Indian Express

4 days ago

Indians have been blindsided by Donald Trump inflicting a total of 50 per cent tariffs on their nation — the highest rate in Asia, perhaps the highest in the world. What happened to the much-bruited good vibes of the first-term diplomatic extravaganzas nicknamed 'Howdy Modi' and 'Namaste Trump'? What about the bonhomie of February, when the US President welcomed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Washington as one of the first foreign guests of his second term? How should India understand this apparent slap in the face?
It's simple: This is just how Trump operates. Every interaction is a dominance play, every policy decision is an expression of personal whim. India (unlike its neighbours) was unwilling to bow down to his demands for an unbalanced trade deal, so he's imposing tariffs in a fit of pique. It's illegal under US law, and it will undermine a relationship that his predecessors have carefully fostered, but there's no mystery behind it. Trump did it because that's who he is.
Before the latest dust-up, India remained one of the few nations on earth where Trump was not deeply disliked. Over the first four months of his current term, Pew Research asked 28,333 people in 24 nations whether they had confidence that Trump would 'do the right thing regarding world affairs.' The overwhelming majority (for example, 80 per cent, 81 per cent and 91 per cent in Turkey, Germany and Mexico respectively) did not. But just over half of Indians expressed confidence in Trump — one of just five nations in which he broke even (the others were Hungary, Israel, Nigeria and Kenya).
Any break-up can feel like a betrayal. In sorting through what went wrong, Indians should remember two pieces of advice often given to the lovelorn. First: It's not you, it's him. Second: He's not capable of a relationship with anyone.
Whatever warm feelings Indians may have had for Trump were always one-sided. Trump enjoyed the fact that 1,25,000 people came to greet him at an Ahmedabad cricket-stadium in 2020, but Indians may have over-interpreted this reception. The purported friendship between Trump and Modi never resulted in any meaningful policy initiative — or even discouraged Trump from routinely mocking Modi's accent in discussions with his aides.
Some in the Indian right wing have been drawn to Trump for a more disturbing reason: His penchant for anti-Muslim rhetoric and action. During his first presidential campaign, the Hindu Sena threw an in-absentia birthday party for him in New Delhi. As Trump went on to ban visitors from predominantly Muslim nations and implement a broad array of anti-Muslim domestic policies, he was cheered on by some segments of the Hindu Right, both in the US and in India.
But any hope of enlisting Trump on a grand civilisational campaign was always a fool's errand: Trump has deep prejudices, not a real ideology. For Trump, there is no such thing as a true ally or adversary: He has no understanding, whether on the level of individuals or geopolitics, of the idea of a relationship.
A relationship is something bigger than either party. Whether it's a marriage, a friendship, or an alliance between nations, a relationship is something that requires constant care, maintenance and compromise. None of these are part of Trump's personal or political makeup. Every interaction, in his mind, consists of one victor and one vanquished. The idea of a win-win relationship is incomprehensible to him. India isn't unique here: He's behaved the same way to his business associates, his political partners, all three of his spouses, and (with one noteworthy exception) the leader of every nation in the world.
That one exception is Russian President Vladimir Putin, on whom Trump has had a mystifying man-crush for decades. Some analysts have speculated that Trump fears Putin possesses blackmail material, but that wouldn't explain the puppyish obsequiousness with which the US president courts his counterpart. Regardless of the cause, it makes Trump's stated reason for the India tariffs all the more irrational: 'India is …buying massive amounts of Russian Oil,' he posted on his Truth Social platform, 'They don't care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.'
Indians are quite right to be baffled: Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Trump has consistently been Putin's foremost international advocate. In February — in the Oval Office itself, with press cameras rolling — he subjected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to a humiliating lecture, and ordered him to surrender to Russia's demands. Now he's outraged because India is buying Russian oil?
He isn't. Trump doesn't care about the oil purchases, and he doesn't care about Ukraine. What he's upset about is that India is standing up for itself. Trump has tried to bully every nation on earth to accept his blatantly unfair tariffs as the basis for trade agreements — and many of them have meekly complied. Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and other nations have accepted informal 'deals' under which their exports to the US receive punitive tariffs, but the US is permitted to export its goods to them duty-free. The European Union, the largest trade group in the world, timidly acceded to a similar demand. India has refused such a diktat. And that is the reason for Trump's ire.
Why have these nations knuckled under? They're all hoping to hoodwink Trump: None of these 'deals' are legally binding, and Trump changes his mind on a day-to-day basis. Like so many other institutions that have succumbed to his intimidation, they're betting that once he has pocketed the headlines for his victory, he'll lose interest in any concrete follow-through. If public self-abasement nets a tariff rate of 15 per cent rather than 25 per cent, why not swallow one's pride?
India has refused to sacrifice its national dignity for the sake of a few percentage points. This should surprise nobody: Throughout its history, India has always been exceptionally protective of its rights in the international arena. Most Indian prime ministers have been seen in Washington (and elsewhere) as being too prickly for their own good, too sensitive about any concession which might conceivably be regarded as an insult to the nation. But the fact that all Indian leaders have acted this way — BJP, Congress, and Janata alike — suggests that they are expressing the wishes of their constituents.
For whatever it's worth, I hope that India continues to stand up for its rights. Every nation that bows down to Trump's illegitimate demands makes it all that much more difficult for the next country to resist. India is in good company: China, Brazil, and Canada have fought back, and the leaders who have capitulated are likely to face anger from their own citizens once the decidedly-not-reciprocal tariffs start to bite.
Trump was never a friend to India. He was never a friend to anyone. In his world-view, relationships are for suckers. But don't worry, India: He just wasn't into you. And that proves he never deserved you.
The writer is author of Arrow of the Blue-Skinned God: Tracing the Ramayana Through India and Mullahs on the Mainframe: Islam and Modernity Among the Daudi Bohras