These states could redraw their House maps before the 2026 elections

Miami Herald

2 days ago

WASHINGTON - Texas Republicans are moving forward with an effort to redraw the state's congressional map to be more favorable for the GOP, prompting states around the country to consider whether they too should revisit their district lines ahead of next year's midterm elections.
The White House is encouraging at least one other state - Missouri - to join Texas in redistricting, while Democrats in California, New York and elsewhere are weighing how to respond if Texas lawmakers do finalize a new map.
If Texas Republicans meet their own goal, the House GOP could be poised to win up to five additional seats just from the Lone Star State next year, which could be an important buffer as the party seeks to hold on to its slim majority.
Some Democratic leaders have argued that they need to respond in kind.
"We will fight them politically. We will fight them governmentally. We will fight them in court. We will fight them in terms of winning the hearts and minds of the people of Texas and beyond," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Thursday at a news conference in the Lone Star State, flanked by Texas Democrats.
Here's a rundown of the states that are considering redrawing their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 elections or that have been mentioned as potential spots for mid-decade redistricting:
Texas
Texas Republicans unveiled a draft map Wednesday that would shift several districts currently held by Democrats near the state's major cities and in South Texas.
Such changes would bring more Republican-leaning voters into Democratic Rep. Julie Elizabeth Johnson's district northeast of Dallas and condense Democratic-leaning voters into just two districts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez's South Texas districts, which both went for Donald Trump last fall, would become more Republican-leaning. And the map would also dismantle a Democratic-held seat in Houston and another that stretches from Austin to San Antonio.
All told, the five redrawn seats would each have backed Trump by at least 10 points in last year's election, according to an analysis by Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Under Texas' current map, Republicans hold 25 House seats to 12 for Democrats, with one vacancy following Democrat Sylvester Turner's death in March.
Besides legal challenges, Democrats in the Texas Legislature are also weighing a plan to deny their Republican counterparts a quorum to pass a redrawn map by fleeing the state, The Texas Tribune reported.
State lawmakers are in special session until Aug. 19, which is essentially their deadline to approve a new map.
Missouri
The White House has reportedly urged Republicans in Missouri to alter the state's House map, under which the party currently holds six of eight seats.
GOP Rep. Eric Burlison told St. Louis Public Radio that Trump wants state lawmakers to target Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II's seat in the Kansas City area.
That would be doable, according to Republican Rep. Jason Smith.
"There's some crazy jagged edges - in St. Charles County, in Clay and Jackson County near Kansas City," Smith told Punchbowl News. "And so I think that you could have a more compact map."
Gov. Mike Kehoe, who would need to call a special session to redraw the map, has said officials in the state were weighing their options.
"I think it's safe to say that in Missouri, along with other states, we're always trying to make sure that we have as much Republican representation because we believe that's who we are," he said, according to Ozarks Public Radio.
Florida
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is also among the Republican governors talking up the prospects of mid-decade redistricting, in what could be an effort to squeeze in at least one more GOP-favored district in the Sunshine State.
He said Wednesday that redistricting "was something that we're looking at very seriously," though he admitted he hadn't yet talked to any members of the GOP-controlled state Legislature about it.
His comments come after the Florida Supreme Court recently upheld the state's current map, which DeSantis had pushed through and that dismantled a Black-majority seat in northern Florida. Republicans currently hold 20 of the state's 28 House seats.
Indiana
In GOP-controlled Indiana, Republicans currently hold seven of the state's nine House seats, and Punchbowl News reported that Trump's allies are hoping for a mid-decade redraw to pick up at least one of the Democratic seats. Rep. Frank Mrvan's right-trending 1st District in the state's northwest corner could be a target.
But to attempt such a redraw, Republican Gov. Mike Braun, a former senator, would need to call the legislature in for a special session, which he hasn't yet said he's planning to do. The state may also need to enact a law to allow mid-decade redistricting, according to The Downballot. Politico Playbook reported this week that there appeared to be "little-to-no appetite for remapping" among Indiana Republicans.
California
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has spoken openly about the prospects of redrawing his state's congressional lines in an effort to blunt the effects of the new Texas maps on the 2026 landscape.
A retaliatory move wouldn't be as simple as what's playing out in Texas. Newsom and California Democrats would likely need to put the issue on the ballot to bypass the state's independent redistricting commission, which drew the current House map.
Newsom said Thursday he is eyeing a November special election for voters to weigh in on any redrawn map that could help elect more Democrats in response to the efforts in Texas.
"We will go to the people of this state in a transparent way and ask them to consider the new circumstances, to consider these new realities," Newsom said, according to CalMatters.
California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, told KCRA 3 that such a plan would be defendable in court.
The regular session of the California Legislature ends Sept. 12, meaning state Democrats, who hold supermajorities in both chambers, have ample time to come up with a plan without a special session.
California Democrats already hold a strong advantage in the state's House delegation under the commission-drawn map, holding 43 seats to Republicans' nine. Some Democratic lawmakers have expressed a willingness to run in more competitive seats if it would mean increasing the party's pickup opportunities under a new map.
New York
Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has been open to a redraw of the state's congressional map to favor her party.
"I won't sit by while Donald Trump and Texas Republicans try to steal our nation's future," she posted Wednesday on X in response to the release of the draft Texas map.
New York Democrats currently hold 19 House seats to seven for the Republicans under a map that was approved by the Democratic-controlled state Legislature after making modest changes to lines drawn by New York's independent redistricting commission.
Legislative Democrats unveiled a measure this week that would amend the state constitution to allow New York to redraw its district lines mid-decade if another state did so first. But the legislation has a long path to becoming law, NBC News reported. Lawmakers would need to approve the measure in two consecutive sessions before it went to voters as a ballot measure.
That would likely mean that any new map wouldn't take effect until the 2028 elections.
Maryland
The eight-member House delegation in deep-blue Maryland is, unsurprisingly, dominated by Democrats, with Rep. Andy Harris holding the lone Republican seat on the state's Eastern Shore.
Maryland House Majority Leader David Moon has said he is drafting legislation to allow the state to respond to Texas by attempting its own redrawing, The Baltimore Banner reported.
But during the last round of redistricting after the 2020 census, a state judge rejected a Democratic effort to make Harris' district more competitive as a "product of extreme partisan gerrymandering" that violated the state constitution.
The Maryland legislature isn't expected to meet again until next year, according to the Banner.
Illinois
Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker met with Texas Democrats last week and suggested a redraw could be in the cards for his state in reaction to what transpires in Austin.
"So as far as I'm concerned, everything's on the table in reaction to that. But I'd like them to understand that if they're going to take this drastic action, then we also might take drastic action to respond," Pritzker said, according to WLS.
But that could be complicated because the current Illinois map already advantages Democrats, who hold 14 of the state's 17 seats - though Thursday's announcement that longtime Democratic Rep. Danny K. Davis will not seek reelection to his deep-blue Chicago-area seat could give the party an opportunity for some reconfiguration.
Ohio
Ohio was already set to see its congressional map redrawn this fall before the redistricting conversation went national.
The Buckeye State is required under state law to redraw its lines before next year's elections, as its current map was crafted by the GOP-controlled Redistricting Commission without bipartisan support. Ohio Republicans hold major sway over the redistricting process. The GOP-led state legislature and the redistricting commission could each get a shot at redrawing the map with bipartisan support. But if bipartisanship proves elusive, Republicans would be able to pass a map on party lines, subject to certain restrictions.
Ohio's House delegation currently includes 10 Republicans and five Democrats. Districts thought to be potential targets for Republicans include the ones represented by Democrats Marcy Kaptur, Emilia Sykes and Greg Landsman.
Louisiana
The Supreme Court punted on a decision on Louisiana's congressional map earlier this year and is set to rehear a challenge to the lines when it returns for its next term in the fall. That means it is possible there could be a third set of maps in three elections in the Bayou State by 2026.
The map that the Supreme Court allowed to be used in 2024 created a second Black opportunity district. Democrat Cleo Fields won the seat and returned to the House nearly 30 years after his previous congressional stint.
Wisconsin
Opponents of Wisconsin's congressional map have launched more legal challenges since the state Supreme Court's liberal majority declined in June to hear a pair of lawsuits that called for a redrawing of district lines.
Wisconsin Republicans hold a 6-2 advantage in House seats despite the state being a perennial battleground that sees some of the closest elections in the country.
The current map, approved by the state high court's then-conservative majority in 2022, was submitted by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers under "least change" guidelines set by the court. The guidelines required mapmakers to hew as closely as possible to the previous map, which had been drawn by Republicans.
Utah
In Utah, there's ongoing litigation over whether the current district lines, put in place after the 2020 census, should have been drawn by an independent commission pursuant to a 2018 ballot initiative.
Republicans control all four of the state's House seats after GOP state lawmakers split the Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City area between the four districts.
Other states
Several other states have earned mentions as places that could redraw their congressional lines, but prospects here appear remote.
Kentucky and Kansas have lone Democratic representatives who could be targeted, and Republicans hold legislative supermajorities in both states. But the states' respective Democratic governors would be unlikely to call for a special session this year to redraw the maps.
In New Jersey, where Democrats hold a governing trifecta, Gov. Phil Murphy is not ruling out a response to the action in Texas, but there seem to be no immediate plans to pursue efforts to target any of the Garden State's three Republican House members. The state may also be nearly out of time for voters to amend its Constitution and allow for mid-decade redistricting before the 2026 elections.
Democrats in Washington state, where they also hold full control, have said mid-decade redistricting is almost certainly unlikely to happen, the Washington State Standard reported. Democrats already dominate the state's House delegation - holding eight of 10 seats, including one that Trump carried - under a map drawn up by a bipartisan redistricting commission.
In Democratic-leaning Colorado, an independent redistricting commission, created by voter-approved 2018 constitutional amendments, drew the state's current map. The House delegation is currently evenly split between the parties, with four seats each. Former Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who is seeking a comeback in the competitive 8th District, has called on Gov. Jared Polis to take steps to scrap the redistricting commission in response to Texas. But such a move would face multiple hurdles, as Colorado Pols reported.
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