NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch 2025: Teams with the most and least to gain this week

New York Times

10-03-2025

(Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)
Drake's in, so we can dispense with the arguments about whether Ben McCollum's Bulldogs would have made the field of 68 without winning the Missouri Valley tourney (they probably wouldn't have), save follow-up discussions about the plight of the mid-major and tournament expansion for another day and simply appreciate the fact that this tournament is better with Drake in it.
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Lipscomb's in, too. And High Point. And SIU-Edwardsville. And Omaha. With the Sun Belt and Southern Conference scheduled to produce champions Monday. And on through the week we'll go, into power conference tournaments and finishing on Selection Sunday. The teams playing for those automatic bids and the at-large hopefuls right around the bubble have the most at stake this week, of course — check for regular updates this week on Jim Root's Bubble Watch.
But what about the stakes in safe parts of the bracket? Here are five teams that have much to gain in their conference tournaments and five that don't.
Florida: I've got Florida as the last No. 1 seed after an enormous win at Alabama, and a No. 1 seed is worth it simply to guarantee Auburn/Duke avoidance. Though I'm not sure Florida should be worried about avoiding anyone, the way the Gators are playing.
Alabama: It's so close between Florida and Alabama. If things go the way this bracket unfolded, it wouldn't much matter because the No. 4 overall seed and No. 5 overall seed got shipped out West together. But it doesn't have to unfold that way. The only clear rule is that No. 5 overall can't be with No. 1 overall.
Tennessee: It's so close between Alabama and Tennessee, too. These three appear to be fighting for one spot because Houston is inching toward No. 1 lock status. But it's worth it for the Vols to be a higher No. 2 than Alabama — that's the difference right now between starting in Lexington or Cleveland.
Wisconsin: The Badgers need to get their swagger back. Also, a No. 3 seed is still very attainable and worth pursuing.
UConn: The Huskies need to maintain momentum. And get the heck out of having to play in an 8/9 game.
Auburn: Two straight losses haven't changed the fact that this is the clear best resume in the sport. You're outright SEC champs. Rather than beat yourself up over three days, tell everyone your bus broke down and get Johni Broome's left ankle some rest.
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Duke: The No. 1 overall seed could be attained, I suppose. But so what? Duke will be a No. 1 seed with a Raleigh-Newark path. Auburn will be a No. 1 seed with a Lexington-Atlanta path. This week is nothing but injury exposure.
Michigan State: I don't see the Spartans cracking the top line — though they can be pushy! I also don't see how they fall to a No. 3 seed. Another outright champ that doesn't need the hassle.
St. John's: A start in Providence should be assured with a No. 3 seed. So rather than go all out for a No. 2, maybe get a few thousand shots up instead?
Houston: OK, go hard for one win, just to make sure on that No. 1 seed.
We'll be back Thursday with a new bracket, and then it's every day until the big day.
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(Photo of Walter Clayton Jr: Matt Pendleton / Imagn Images)