Expanding and melting glacial lakes pose huge dangers
Another IT report presents startling facts that melting glaciers are creating huge lakes in Himalayas and could burst anytime. This is according to satellite analyses by Suhora Technologies, which monitors 33,000 lakes across the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra basins, confirm accelerated growth in high-altitude lakes due to rapid glacier melt. Studies reveal that glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region – home to the world's largest ice reserves outside the poles – have grown by over 10% in area since 1990, with the Ganga basin witnessing a 22% surge in lake numbers. Rising global temperatures have pushed lake formation to elevations above 5500 meters, reflecting glacier retreat to higher altitudes. Over 76% of Himalayan glacial lakes are end-moraine-dammed, a fragile structure prone to breaches.
A new study with ETH Zurich, published in the journal Science, finds that if global warming exceeds the Paris Climate Agreement targets, the non-polar glacier mass will diminish significantly, as per an ETHZ press release. Even if global temperatures were stabilised at today's level of 1.2°C, an estimated 39 per cent of global glacier mass would still be lost compared to 2020 levels – contributing over 10 centimetres to global sea-level rise.
The study states that, however, if warming is limited to 1.5°C, at least 54% could be preserved — more than twice as much ice as in a 2.7°C scenario. Even if the rise in global temperatures were to stabilise at its current level, it is projected that the world would lose around 40% of its glaciers. If global warming can be limited to +1.5 °C, it may be possible to preserve twice as much glacier ice (54%) as in a scenario where temperatures rise by +2.7 °C (only 24%).
For the study, an international team of 21 scientists from 10 countries used eight glacier models to calculate the potential ice loss from more than 200,000 glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica. The team evaluated a wide range of global temperature scenarios, assuming that temperatures would remain constant for thousands of years in each scenario. In all scenarios, the glaciers lose mass rapidly over decades and then continue to melt at a slower pace for centuries – even without additional warming. This long-term response means glaciers will continue to feel the effects of today's heat far into the future, gradually retreating to higher altitudes before reaching a new equilibrium.
Melting glaciers reveal the reality of global warming, the study says. And, beyond contributing to sea-level rise, glacier loss has far-reaching consequences. It threatens freshwater availability, increases the risk of glacier-related hazards such as floods and landslides, and jeopardizes glacier-fed tourism economies. These cascading impacts will be felt across regions and generations. While other studies have limited to the year 2100 estimate that around 20% of today's glacier mass will be lost regardless of future warming, the new study reveals that nearly twice as much would vanish under present-day conditions when multi-centennial timescales are considered.
The IT analysis points out that in India the CWC began monitoring glacial lakes in 2009 to enhance assessment and preparedness strategies. In its 2011 inventory, the CWC recorded 2028 glacial lakes and water bodies larger than 10 hectares. Since then, using advanced tools like remote sensing, satellite imagery, and cloud platforms, the CWC has prioritised monitoring 902 critical water bodies. This latest report from September 2024 reveals a 10.81% area increase in 544 glacial lakes and 358 water bodies over the past decade. While China shows the highest rate, similar trends in India show that 67 lakes have grown significantly. The analysis also underscores recent data from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) highlights the growing threat of GLOFs. ICIMOD's analysis shows that over 70% of the 700 recorded GLOFs events since 1833 have occurred in the last 50 years, illustrating the accelerating impact of climate change on glacial stability.
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Gulf Today
15-07-2025
- Gulf Today
Expanding and melting glacial lakes pose huge dangers
Glacial lakes and water bodies across the Himalayan region have expanded by 11% since 2011, according to a report by India's Central Water Commission (CWC). The report, highlighted in an India Today (IT) analysis, underscores the growing risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) as climate change accelerates glacial melting and lake expansion largely driven by global warming. Another IT report presents startling facts that melting glaciers are creating huge lakes in Himalayas and could burst anytime. This is according to satellite analyses by Suhora Technologies, which monitors 33,000 lakes across the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra basins, confirm accelerated growth in high-altitude lakes due to rapid glacier melt. Studies reveal that glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region – home to the world's largest ice reserves outside the poles – have grown by over 10% in area since 1990, with the Ganga basin witnessing a 22% surge in lake numbers. Rising global temperatures have pushed lake formation to elevations above 5500 meters, reflecting glacier retreat to higher altitudes. Over 76% of Himalayan glacial lakes are end-moraine-dammed, a fragile structure prone to breaches. A new study with ETH Zurich, published in the journal Science, finds that if global warming exceeds the Paris Climate Agreement targets, the non-polar glacier mass will diminish significantly, as per an ETHZ press release. Even if global temperatures were stabilised at today's level of 1.2°C, an estimated 39 per cent of global glacier mass would still be lost compared to 2020 levels – contributing over 10 centimetres to global sea-level rise. The study states that, however, if warming is limited to 1.5°C, at least 54% could be preserved — more than twice as much ice as in a 2.7°C scenario. Even if the rise in global temperatures were to stabilise at its current level, it is projected that the world would lose around 40% of its glaciers. If global warming can be limited to +1.5 °C, it may be possible to preserve twice as much glacier ice (54%) as in a scenario where temperatures rise by +2.7 °C (only 24%). For the study, an international team of 21 scientists from 10 countries used eight glacier models to calculate the potential ice loss from more than 200,000 glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica. The team evaluated a wide range of global temperature scenarios, assuming that temperatures would remain constant for thousands of years in each scenario. In all scenarios, the glaciers lose mass rapidly over decades and then continue to melt at a slower pace for centuries – even without additional warming. This long-term response means glaciers will continue to feel the effects of today's heat far into the future, gradually retreating to higher altitudes before reaching a new equilibrium. Melting glaciers reveal the reality of global warming, the study says. And, beyond contributing to sea-level rise, glacier loss has far-reaching consequences. It threatens freshwater availability, increases the risk of glacier-related hazards such as floods and landslides, and jeopardizes glacier-fed tourism economies. These cascading impacts will be felt across regions and generations. While other studies have limited to the year 2100 estimate that around 20% of today's glacier mass will be lost regardless of future warming, the new study reveals that nearly twice as much would vanish under present-day conditions when multi-centennial timescales are considered. The IT analysis points out that in India the CWC began monitoring glacial lakes in 2009 to enhance assessment and preparedness strategies. In its 2011 inventory, the CWC recorded 2028 glacial lakes and water bodies larger than 10 hectares. Since then, using advanced tools like remote sensing, satellite imagery, and cloud platforms, the CWC has prioritised monitoring 902 critical water bodies. This latest report from September 2024 reveals a 10.81% area increase in 544 glacial lakes and 358 water bodies over the past decade. While China shows the highest rate, similar trends in India show that 67 lakes have grown significantly. The analysis also underscores recent data from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) highlights the growing threat of GLOFs. ICIMOD's analysis shows that over 70% of the 700 recorded GLOFs events since 1833 have occurred in the last 50 years, illustrating the accelerating impact of climate change on glacial stability.
Gulf Today
20-05-2025
- Gulf Today
Species loss hastened by climate change
Palaeo climate research shows that past global warming events triggered significant ecological changes, favouring deciduous forests over evergreen ones, according to an analysis by Mongabay-India (MI). The analysis highlights a recent discovery of fossil evidence of a tree species now considered endemic to the Western Ghats, in a coalfield in the state of Assam in India, saying it sends a clear message. If global warming continues at its current pace, earth risks losing or severely restricting many of its precious taxa. The MI analysis states that scientists from the Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences unearthed fossilised leaf remains of 'Nothopegia oligo travancorica' and 'Nothopegia oligo castaneifolia', in the Makum coalfields of Assam. The 'oligo' in the name stands for the geologic time period Oligocene, or the period of time when a fossil was formed, dating back approximately 24 million years. The findings of the study suggest that these species, once widespread across northern and northeastern India, gradually migrated and found refuge in the Western Ghats, where they have since persisted in pockets. The abstract of the study points out that endemism, driven by geological and climatic transformations, is a hallmark of biodiversity hotspots. Fossil evidence offers unique insights into the historical biogeography and evolutionary trajectories of endemic taxa, particularly in biodiversity-rich regions like northeast India and the Western Ghats. As per the study, regions with high concentrations of endemic species are designated as biodiversity hotspots by Conservation International (CI). Of the 36 global hotspots identified by CI, four are in India: the Eastern Himalaya, Indo-Burma, Western Ghats, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. This study highlights a significant biogeographic shift in the distribution of the species over millions of years. Fossil evidence from northeast India suggests that the genus once had a much broader range during the late Paleogene, thriving under equable climatic conditions like those found in its present habitat in the Western Ghats. However, subsequent climatic and geological changes likely led to its extinction from northeast India, confining the species to its current distribution in the Western Ghats. This raises critical questions about the palaeogeographic and climatic conditions that supported these taxa in northeast India during the late Oligocene. Researchers quoted in the MI report say that historically, these species were distributed across north and northeastern India – from Assam to Darjeeling – but migrated southwards over time. The primary driver was the decrease in cold-month mean temperatures following the uplift of the Himalayas. The Himalayan uplift history suggests that the mountains gained most of their elevation around 11 million years ago – rising from approximately 6000 metres to their current height of about 8,848 metres. During this shift in elevation, species that could not adapt to the substantial drop in temperature in the winters migrated towards the Western Ghats, which maintained the warm, stable temperatures these evergreen species required. While migration for plant species happens through seed dispersal by wind, animals, or birds, the survival depends on the suitability of climatic conditions at the destination. Experts add that as a long-term strategy for preserving these species, it is crucial that we prioritise conservation of evergreen forests. They make a strong case for conserving natural forests as otherwise we would lose something that has survived ice ages, continental drift, and climatic upheaval As the MI analysis points out India's landmass has undergone a dramatic latitudinal shift while migrating from the southern to the northern hemisphere, traveling approximately 9000 kilometres over a period of about 140 million years, and later colliding with the Eurasian Plate, impacting both terrestrial and marine lives as well as the climate patterns. The fossil remains of many ancient species like Sivapithecus, an early primate and human ancestor that once lived in the Shivalik hills, suggest they went extinct when evergreen forests were replaced by deciduous ones – again showing how drastic environmental changes can trigger extinctions, he highlights. If climate history repeats, there is a good chance that evergreen species like mango may not survive the test of global warming. While anthropogenic pressure causes rapid and visible degradation of forest cover, climate change acts more slowly. However, it could potentially intensify temperatures and dry conditions, making the environment unsuitable for many evergreen species.
Al Etihad
22-04-2025
- Al Etihad
Landmark Nepal survey estimates nearly 400 elusive snow leopards
22 Apr 2025 20:59 KATHMANDU (AFP)Nepal's first nationwide survey of the threatened snow leopard estimated nearly 400 of the elusive big cats in the Himalayan nation, wildlife officials said loss, climate change and poaching have greatly impacted snow leopard populations across Asia, listed as a "vulnerable" species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).But the survey offers a rare shot of hope, confirming numbers lie at the upper end of the previous thick grey fur dotted with dark spots, and large paws that act as natural snow shoes, the species are difficult to spot and quick to hide, making field research challenging."This is a historic step in Nepal's snow leopard conservation journey," Haribhadra Acharya, senior ecologist at the Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation, told AFP."This is the first time we are getting authentic data with the great effort of researchers," he estimated total of 397 snow leopards were counted, determined through motion-sensor camera and genetic analysis in seven key offers the most comprehensive national estimate of snow leopards -- also known as the "ghosts of mountains" -- previously estimated by the IUCN to be in the range of leopards are the least studied of the big cats globally due to their low population density and remote mountain habitats they inhabit."Nepal has only two percent of the size of the snow leopard habitats globally, (yet) we host 10 percent of the total estimated population", Ghana S Gurung, country representative of WWF Nepal, told AFP."More importantly, we are the second smallest country in terms of snow leopard habitat size after Bhutan, (but) we hold the fourth largest population," he added.'Increased human activity'The Snow Leopard Trust, a US-based conservation group, says the exact total number is not known but that "there may be as few as 3,920 and probably no more than 6,390" across 12 countries in conservationists have welcomed the new population estimate, many remain concerned about the threats posed by climate change and infrastructure development."New road construction, installation of transmission lines, and increased human activity in search of herbs are disrupting snow leopards' habitats in the Himalayas," said Acharya, one of the lead say the increasing avalanches in the mountains -- where climate change is exacerbating extremes of weather patterns -- are another has been praised worldwide for its efforts to protect wildlife which have helped several species, including tigers and rhinos, to return from the brink of local extinction. The country's conservation efforts have helped to triple its tiger population to 355 since 2010 and to increase one-horned rhinoceros from around 100 in the 1960s to 752 in 2021.
