CNBC Daily Open: Certainty of 'reciprocal' tariffs better than confusing legal tussle

CNBC

a day ago

A U.S. federal trade court striking down President Donald Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs on a broad swathe of countries seems, on the surface, a positive development all around. A lack of tariffs leads to cheaper goods, likely more consumer spending and higher corporate revenue, which tends to flow back to stock prices.
This ideal scenario, however, rests on the assumption that the court's decision is final and the Trump administration does not have other ways of reinstating its muscular trade policies.
Events on Thursday have already shown us that is not the case. An appeals court temporarily paused the tariff ruling to allow the Trump administration to respond to the case. "Even if we lose, we will do it another way," Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro told reporters at the White House Thursday afternoon.
This uncertainty could roil markets and trade negotiations with countries further. If tariffs could pop in and out of existence based on policy and judicial decisions, how do nations discuss trade deals, and how do investors allocate their capital efficiently? Indeed, the S&P 500 was up nearly 0.9% when trading began, but fell sharply after the Trump administration said it may ask the Supreme Court to halt the federal trade court's ruling.
"In general, markets don't like uncertainty, because it makes forecasting more difficult," said Larry Tentarelli, founder of the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. "We expect the tariff news cycle to be an extended process, which can lead to higher short-term volatility."
A concrete tariff of 10% would still be a tax — but the surety of it could be better for markets and economies globally in the long run.
Trump 'reciprocal' tariffs reinstated for nowA U.S. federal appeals court on Thursday granted the Trump administration's request to temporarily pause a lower-court ruling that struck down most of Trump's tariffs. Trump officials maintain that they have other options for imposing tariffs, even if they do not prevail in the case. Earlier in the day, the White House said it would seek "emergency relief" from the Supreme Court if the ruling was not paused.
Rocky U.S.-China negotiationsU.S.-China trade talks "are a bit stalled," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News in an interview Thursday local time, adding that there may be a call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping "at some point." Even though Washington and Beijing have agreed to roll back tariffs for 90 days, the U.S. has pushed ahead with tech restrictions on China, while the latter has yet to significantly ease restrictions on exports of rare earths.
U.S. market gains capped by tariff confusionU.S. stocks rose Thursday. They were buoyed by Nvidia — which climbed 3.3% on its positive earnings — but were held back from bigger gains by uncertainty around tariffs. The S&P 500 added 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.39%. Asia-Pacific markets fell Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 retreated 1.15% at 1:30 p.m. Singapore time as data showed annual core inflation in Tokyo hitting 3.6% in May, the highest since January 2023.
Powell stressed rate decisions cannot be politicalFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell met Trump Thursday, according to a release by the U.S. central bank. "Chair Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy," the statement said. However, Powell did "stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook" — essentially, that interest rates cannot be swayed by politics.
SEC dropped its lawsuit against BinanceThe SEC has formally dropped its lawsuit against Binance and founder Changpeng Zhao, which was first brought in June 2023. The case had accused the crypto exchange of illegally serving U.S. users, inflating trading volumes and commingling customer funds. The dismissal marks a symbolic end to the agency's crypto crackdown and comes as the Trump administration attempts to prove it's an ally to the industry.
[PRO] European sectors to play: JPMorganEuropean equities have fared better than those in the U.S. so far this year. JPMorgan analysts think the trend could continue, with non-U.S. markets trading "increasingly more favorably" against their American counterparts for the next 12 to 18 months. Here are the bank's preferred sectors for this period.
South Korea's Hybe opens China office amid hopes of a K-pop reversal from Beijing
South Korea's largest K-pop agency Hybe, which established its first office in China on April 2 and announced the launch on Thursday, has been preparing to enter the Chinese market since last year, a Hybe official said recently.
There have been indications that Beijing might be softening its stance on K-pop in the face of weak domestic consumption and stalled trade talks with China. And in another sign of thawing relations, China announced its decision to waive visas for South Koreans last November. South Korea followed suit in March 2025 with its plans to offer a visa exemption to Chinese visitors in the third quarter.
"In contrast with semiconductors or autos, where global trade policy directly impacts supply chains and pricing, K-pop consumption is far less sensitive to protectionist measures," Shinhan Securities said in a note in April.