Can Taiwan's energy grid withstand a Chinese attack?

Time of India

06-05-2025

China's increasingly frequent military drills around Taiwan have raised concerns on the island over its energy security.
The self-governing democracy, which lies just 100 miles (160 kilometers) off the coast of mainland China, relies heavily on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and energy imports — making it particularly vulnerable to a marine blockade.
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"Energy would be Beijing's first target [in case of a blockade or invasion]," James Yifan Chen, a scholar of international relations, told DW.
In the latest exercises in early April, China's military simulated blockade operations around vital shipping lanes near the island. The drills also simulated live-fire strikes on ports and energy facilities.
"LNG ships would find it hard to arrive in Taiwan," Chen explained.
"People would run out of power and water, as the water supply is powered by electricity. Communication is based on electricity and the military would not be able to function," he added.
In that case, the expert believed that Taiwan would be left with little to no outside help with its energy supply due to its geographic and diplomatic isolation.
"Taiwan is more vulnerable than Ukraine," Chen said, as Kyiv can at least turn to its European neighbors and allies for support.
Taiwan's location, on the other hand — and the fact that it only has formal diplomatic ties with 12 small nations — means the island would be quickly overwhelmed by a Chinese blockade.
How long would Taiwan's energy last if China attacks?
Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway territory, and has not ruled out using force to take control of it. A majority of Taiwanese are opposed to unification with the mainland, according to Taiwan's National Chengchi University.
In 2023, the then-minister of national defense, Chiu Kuo-cheng, said that if left unainded, the island could withstand a Chinese attack for two weeks if sufficient preparations were made during peacetime.
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But Chia-wei Chao, of the Taiwan Climate Action Network (TCAN) and an assistant professor at National Taiwan University, believes two weeks "isn't a reasonable guideline."
"Energy consumption would go down, or even halve, in the case of a blockade, so the reserves could last longer," Chao told DW.
Based on current estimates, "gas reserves should be able to last for 30 days after 2030, and 28 days currently with lowered energy consumption demand," Chao added.
Tsaiying Lu of Taiwan's Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET), is even more optimistic. She predicts that the territory's LNG stores would last at least 40 days under a blockade.
That estimate is based on patterns of the island's energy supply during typically low-consumption periods, such as the second day of Lunar New Year, which offers the closest approximation to wartime conditions.
"According to our assessment, demand [in case of a blockade] would be supported by coal-fired generators, and then gas turbines will be used for support when solar power starts to lower during the night," Lu said.
Energy reserves could also be further extended by rationing electricity for certain industrial sectors, she added.
'Renewables can ensure energy security'
Although Chao pointed out Taiwan did not include energy supply in its defense budget, he highlighted that "green energy development is associated with national security."
"Solar energy and storage should be the most reliable in case of war, since the panels can be moved around," said Chao. "Renewables pushing energy transition can truly ensure energy security."
The island plans to generate 20% of its power from renewables by the end of 2025, as part of its climate goal of being net-zero emissions by 2050, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
However, last year only about 12% of Taiwan's domestic energy came from wind, solar, hydro, methane and burning waste, the state-owned Taiwan Power Company said.
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Is nuclear power the solution?
To bridge the gap, calls for restarting the island's controversial nuclear program have been gaining momentum.
In May, Taiwan is set to retire its last operating nuclear reactor as part of a "nuclear-free homeland" policy promoted by the administration of President Lai Ching-te.
Nuclear power accounts for less than 3% of Taiwan's energy generation, according to Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs.
But Chen (former professor at Tamkang University) believes nuclear power could be key to the island being able to survive a Chinese blockade.
"Taiwan only needs one to two years to restart its nuclear plants, and the US can help us with that," he said.
Earlier this year, Taiwan's main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), claimed that 73% of respondents of a poll conducted by a KMT think-tank are in favor of extending the lifespan of nuclear power plants.
But even if the plants are revived, they remain vulnerable in times of war, Lu said, highlighting that Ukraine's nuclear plants "became one of the biggest targets" of Russia's invasion.