The Japan-Australia frigate sale is a big deal. Here's why.

Japan Times

a day ago

This week, the Australian government announced that Japan has won the hard-fought competition to provide the Royal Australian Navy's next surface warfare vessel and that it will purchase up to 11 Mogami-class frigates.
The amount of money in the deal is a whopping 10 billion Australian dollars (¥950 billion) to be committed over about 20 years.
While the price tag and length of the deal are substantial, they are only partly why this agreement is so significant. For Japan, it signals a key step in the evolution of its defense industry. For Australia, it offers a viable near-term solution to modernizing its navy while also supporting its own domestic shipbuilding industries. Equally important is what it means for the deepening relationship between the two countries based on the long-term commitment they are embarking upon together.
Japan and Australia have dubbed their relationship the 'Special Strategic Partnership,' but it has taken time and effort from both sides to evolve it to this point, particularly in the realm of security. In the mid-1990s, the two governments started to routinize defense-related engagements. This accelerated after cooperation in the early 2000s in Iraq where Australian forces were directly responsible for protecting Japanese engineering units, as well as through burgeoning trilateral cooperation with the United States. The two governments recognized their mutual interests both in the region and abroad and signed their first joint declaration on security cooperation in 2007.
By the mid-2010s, the Japan-Australian security relationship seemed to be on an irreversible path of alignment. Which is why it came as such a shock to the Japanese when the precursor to this frigate deal fell through.
A decade ago, the Australian military was in the market for a new diesel-powered submarine to replace its aging Collins-class vessels. The deal came down to two options: the Japanese Soryu-class or the French Suffren-class. The Australian government opted for the French deal, in part because of guarantees on the amount that local Australian shipbuilding industries would be incorporated into the procurement process. The Japanese government felt slighted by the decision for two reasons: first, it believed the Soryu was the superior submarine; and second, it saw the deal as emblematic of deepening security ties.
For the Australians, the submarine deal with France ended up collapsing anyway. Amid delays and cost increases, the government decided in 2021 that it would abandon diesel submarines altogether and move to acquire nuclear-powered vessels under the new AUKUS pact. The result is that Australia still has no new submarines almost 10 years after eschewing the Japanese option.
Thus, one of the things that this deal does is erase the memory of the Soryu-class submarine deal gone wrong. With this frigate deal, Japan and Australia get a mulligan — that is, they have another opportunity at a big, multiyear procurement agreement with a guarantee for new vessels to be delivered in the near term.
However, even this recent outcome was not guaranteed for the two defense partners. Like the last submarine competition, it came down to Japan and a European competitor — this time, it was the Germans. The German Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems A-200 Frigate held an early advantage based on the fact that Australia already had previous experience with procurement of its Anzac-class vessels from a Thyssen group subsidiary. But with an aim of guaranteeing near-term delivery, the Japanese Mogami-class prevailed.
There are still additional steps that must be taken. Australia's Department of Defence must now engage Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and the Japanese government in negotiating and entering binding commercial contracts. Their aim is to complete this process next year, with the delivery of the first Mogami-class frigate to Australia by 2029.
For the Japanese government, this will make for the largest defense export to date. It is a huge milestone that entices Japanese companies to invest more heavily into their defense-related industries. Up to this point, export controls and the Japanese government's inability to facilitate the conclusion of deals have hampered progress in achieving these kinds of deals even when Japan has had top-of-the-line products. While the Soryu-class submarine offers one salient example, another is the ShinMaywa US-2 rescue seaplane — a one-of-a-kind search and rescue craft that still has not been exported overseas despite foreign interest. The fact that the Japanese government has finally netted something of this magnitude may be the kind of signal to Japan's big conglomerates that this sector can promise a worthwhile return on investment.
For Australia, this deal is significant because it accelerates the procurement of its next-generation frigates. The administration of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is touting that this new design will enable the delivery of the new frigate five years ahead of the previous government's designs. The successful integration of this new vessel will help modernize the Australian Navy as it continues its important efforts to preserve the rules-based international order in the maritime domain.
Further, the deal allows for investment in local Australian manufacturers. While the final contours of the deal will be worked out next year, a key parameter for this recent agreement-in-principle is that the shipbuilding will eventually transition from Japan to Australian soil in cooperation with domestic shipbuilders. Thus, this is not just a deal that satisfies government interests but creates important and enduring links to private sector interests as well.
As the Australian government announced, this deal will underpin a 20-year program of record, and that is not even including the longer-term sustainment initiatives. Considering that vessels operate for decades, this agreement signals long-term investment from both countries.
As for interoperability between defense forces, the deal promises both information-sharing and like systems. Licensed assembly in Australia means that there will be a necessary transfer of information on defense technology and operational designs. Further, interoperability becomes easier when the systems being used are alike. And, if all goes well, there is potential for similar procurement options in the future.
It also offers additional synergy with the U.S. ally. As the Japanese touted to the Australian government, the Mogami-class frigate is designed to operate principally with Japanese and American technologies (e.g., weapons targeting systems, radars, datalink systems, etc.), meaning that Australia can leverage its existing relationships with U.S. defense companies for long-term sustainment and potential future upgrades.
Understanding all this, it is easier to recognize why this frigate agreement is such a big deal. With it, the growing Japan-Australia Special Strategic Partnership just added another foundational pillar.
[bio]Michael MacArthur Bosack is the special adviser for government relations at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies. He previously served in the Japanese government as a Mansfield fellow.[bio]