Untimely Wins Led To White Sox Missing Out On Witt, Rutschman
CINCINNATI, OHIO - MAY 15: Andrew Vaughn #25 of the Chicago White Sox walks back to the dugout after ... More striking out in the fifth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on May 15, 2025 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by)
Timing is everything in baseball, as in life. There are times when wins can hurt you, especially when they come against the wrong opponents.
The White Sox were 62-100 under Rick Renteria in 2018, the first 100-loss season since 1970 for Frank Thomas' old franchise. But included among the 62 wins were 15 in 26 games against the Royals and Orioles.
That's a .577 winning percentage versus Kansas City and Baltimore, and a .346 winning percentage against everyone else. The implications of being able to beat the Royals (11-8) and the Orioles (4-3) have been felt every time they've taken the field the last three years, and will continue to be felt into the future.
As bad as the White Sox were in 2018, the Royals (58-104) and Orioles (47-115) finished with worse records. That meant they picked ahead of the South Siders in the '19 draft, when it was clear to almost all scouts that Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman and Texas high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. were the top prospects in the pool.
The Orioles claimed Rutschman with the first overall pick; the Royals took Witt Jr. with the second pick. That's when the draft became problematic.
But University of California, Berkeley first baseman Andrew Vaughn had been the most productive college hitter for at least two seasons. He won the Golden Spikes Award as a sophomore and then was almost as impressive as a junior, hitting .374 with 15 home runs and a 1.243 OPS in 52 games.
Despite the 32-year-old Jose Abreu still hitting like he was in his prime, the White Sox selected Vaughn over the likes of prep prospects Riley Greene, C.J. Abrams and Corbin Carroll and college stars JJ Bleday, Josh Jung and Nick Lodolo.
While Rutschman and Witt stayed in the minors for 180 and 161 games, respectively, the White Sox rushed Vaughn to Chicago after only 57 games in their farm system. All three of those players missed a year's worth of games during the Covid-shortened 2020 season, when the minor leagues did not operate.
The White Sox, who had traded Chris Sale and Jose Quintana in 2017 to trigger a brief rebuilding phase, went 35-25 under Renteria in '20, surprisingly winning the American League Central, and then fired Renteria to bring Tony La Russa out of retirement for '21. Vaughn was never far from their minds before he landed a spot on the Opening Day roster that season, hitting fifth and playing left field in a 12-8 victory over the Angels.
This seemed the start of something big but it hasn't worked out that way. While Rutschman and Witt led their franchises to postseason spots last season, the White Sox have gone 249-361 with Vaughn on the field, including a 112-237 record the last three seasons. He hasn't even played to replacement level, and was hitting .189 with five home runs and a .531 OPS in 48 games when he was optioned to Triple-A Charlotte last week.
With below-average speed and defensive skills, Vaughn's value lies almost exclusively in his bat. Fangraphs ranks him at -1.3 WAR this season, dropping his career figure to -1.7. Witt has accrued 21.3 fWAR in his three-plus seasons; Rutschman is at 14.4 even though his production is currently in decline.
The White Sox haven't had the first overall pick in the draft since 1977, when they selected Hall of Famer Harold Baines. They won't have it this year despite losing 121 games last season, the most in history.
Anti-tanking rules implemented at the request of the players' union in the last collective bargaining agreement prohibit 'payor clubs' — that is, big-market teams that are required to make revenue-sharing payments — from picking in the top six in back-to-back drafts. The White Sox had the fifth pick a year ago, selecting University of Arkansas left-hander Hagen Smith. They will pick 10th in the first round on July 13 but then have the first overall pick in all other rounds.
There are no obvious picks like Witt and Rutschman at the top of this year's draft. Meanwhile the White Sox hope Vaughn regains his confidence in Triple-A and returns to finish the season strong. But either way he appears to be near the end of his road with the team that took him after Rutschman and Witt went off the board.
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