Where Trump is popular, Democrats look to a new crop of candidates to help win back the House

Winnipeg Free Press

7 hours ago

FAIRVIEW, N.C. (AP) — Jamie Ager has spent much of the past year rebuilding his 250-acre farm in the foothills of western North Carolina after Hurricane Helene tore through the region, cutting power, destroying fences and scattering livestock.
Then, earlier this year, Ager lost his beef contract with local schools, a casualty of billions of dollars in cuts to the U.S. Department of Agriculture under the Trump administration.
Now, the fifth-generation farmer is running for Congress — part of a new crop of Democratic candidates the party is turning to as it tries to compete in the tough, often rural districts it may need to flip to retake the U.S. House in 2026.
Democrats say these new recruits are uniquely suited to break through in districts where President Donald Trump's popularity remains dominant. Many, like Ager, are already a well-known presence in their communities. And in parts of North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan and elsewhere, the party is betting that kind of local credibility can cut through skepticism in places where the Democratic brand has fallen.
Ager says he sees national Democrats as out of touch with rural life: too 'academic' and 'politically correct and scripted.'
'That's just not what people are interested in,' he says. 'The ideas of helping poor people, being neighborly, the ideal of doing those things, I think, are worthy, good ideas that are actually popular. But the execution of a lot of those ideas has been gummed up, you know, not well executed.'
A shifting House map
Heading into next year's midterms, Democrats believe momentum is on their side. Historically, the president's party loses ground in the midterms. In 2018, during Trump's first term, Democrats flipped 41 seats to take control of the House. Republicans currently control the House by such a slim margin, Democrats need to pick up only a few seats to break the GOP's hold on Washington.
The Republican-led tax break and spending cut bill has added to Democrats' optimism. About two-thirds of U.S. adults expect the new tax law will help the rich, according to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. About half say it'll do more harm than good for middle-class people and people like them.
Still, Republicans remain confident. They point to having fewer vulnerable seats than Democrats have this cycle. Only three Republicans hold House districts Democrat Kamala Harris won last year, while 13 Democrats represent districts Trump won.
They also note Democrats' low opinion of their own party after last year's losses. In a July AP-NORC poll, Democrats were likelier to describe their own party negatively than Republicans, with many Democrats calling it weak or ineffective.
In places where local dynamics may give Democrats a shot, it means finding the right candidates is especially important, party leaders say.
'Recruitment matters in these years when the environment is going to be competitive,' said John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster.
Democrats hope a farmer in western North Carolina can regain trust
With power, water and telecommunications down due to last year's hurricane, Ager's Hickory Nut Gap farm became a hub for the community — hosting cookouts and using propane to grill food for neighbors.
Statewide, the storm caused nearly $60 billion in damage and killed more than 100 people. Little federal aid has reached the hardest-hit parts of western North Carolina.
'Helene hitting definitely put an exclamation point on, like, 'Whoa, we need help and support,'' Ager said.
Democrats see Ager as a high-risk, high-reward candidate who could be successful in a district where Democrats have struggled for more than a decade.
No Democrat has won North Carolina's 11th Congressional District since it was redrawn by the Republican-controlled legislature in 2011. A court-ordered redistricting ahead of the 2020 election made it slightly more favorable to Democrats, encompassing Asheville and much of western North Carolina. Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards still won by nearly 14 percentage points last year and is expected to seek reelection.
Grayson Barnette, a Democratic strategist who helped recruit Ager, said in some districts it's a risk to run a candidate who hasn't held elected office before.
'But I would argue that's a good thing, especially when the Democrats just took the big hit we did,' Barnette said. 'We have to look in the mirror and say, 'Let's try something new.''
In a district where nearly 62% of residents live in very low-density areas, Barnette believes Ager's identity — as a business owner, coach and father with deep local roots — could cut through. His unpolished, direct style, he says, may resonate more than a polished political résumé.
In the video launching his campaign, Ager shows flooding on the farm and is seen on the porch of his home, feeding chickens, driving a tractor and spending time with his wife and three sons.
'I'm not flashy, but I'm honest,' he says in the video.
Ager doesn't call himself a Democrat in the roughly two-minute video and rarely used the word during a three-hour interview. Still, his ties to the party run deep: His brother serves in the state House, following in the footsteps of their father. His grandfather served six years in the U.S. House.
Asked whether that might be a liability in the district, Ager simply shrugged: 'Then don't vote for me.'
Trump's big bill could reshape a conservative district in Michigan
In western Michigan, state Rep. Sean McCann is a different kind of candidate from Ager. He's buttoned-up and soft-spoken, with a long resume in elected office and deep roots in Kalamazoo, having served for a decade on the city commission before winning a seat in the state House in 2010.
In a district anchored by conservative and religious values, Democrats see McCann as the kind of steady, experienced figure who can make inroads — especially as backlash builds to Trump's tax bill, which includes deep spending cuts.
At a recent meeting at Kalamazoo's Family Health Center, where nearly 65% of patients rely on Medicaid, the center's president warned the proposed Medicaid cuts would be devastating.
'It's about being home in the community and listening to our community's values — and carrying those to Washington,' McCann said.
The district is represented by Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga, who won reelection by nearly 12 percentage points in 2022. But Huizenga has not said whether he'll seek another term, and Trump carried the district by only 5.5 percentage points in 2024.
Democrats hope strong ties help elsewhere
Across the country, Democrats are watching similar races in places like Iowa and Kentucky, where local candidates with strong community ties are running. In Iowa's 2nd District, state Rep. Lindsay James — a fourth-term lawmaker and Presbyterian pastor — is weighing a run in the northeast part of the state. In Kentucky's 6th, which includes Lexington and Richmond, former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo is running his first campaign, describing himself as a political outsider.
It's a mix of profiles: Ager, the farmer-turned-candidate feeding neighbors after a hurricane. McCann, the public servant meeting with health workers in his hometown. And others like them trying to reconnect a skeptical electorate.
'Yes, the Democratic Party has some taint to it,' Ager said. 'But when I go talk to Republicans who are friends that I've known forever, there's genuine admiration and mutual respect for each other. And that comes from being in this community forever.'
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Associated Press reporter Maya Sweedler in Washington contributed to this report.