Watches And Wonders 2025: How To Fight A Recession

Forbes

09-04-2025

The Van Cleef & Arpels's "Eveil du Cyclamène" is a masterpiece of horologery, high jewellery and functionality.
Stéphane JG Girod
The Swiss Watch industry which just gathered at its latest annual Watches and Wonders in Geneva, is in recession. Last year, exports fell by 2.8% compared to 2023, Luxury Tribune reported, which means that for many brands, including the most prestigious ones, the contraction was more severe. The pending tariffs just announced by Donald Trump, up to 31% on Swiss goods, threaten to make 2025 even more challenging, not only for direct U.S. sales but also through the wider global downturn they may trigger.
So, for brands showcasing at the world's premier professional watch fair — also open to the public for its final days —, the stakes were high: how do you please collectors, entice a large majority of customers to buy perhaps a second watch, and win over first-time buyers? And the real question in everybody's mind, including at LVMH which just appointed one of its veterans to run its Watches Division, an indication of tougher times, will there be enough space for all these brands going forward? Insiders told me at the fair that consolidation is inevitable.
Is the industry rising to the occasion? Not quite. Of course, the event was a feast for the senses — beauty, sophistication and unparalleled technical prowess were on display everywhere, and this is why Watches and Wonders is truly impressive. Take Vacheron Constantin's Les Cabinotiers Solara Ultra Grand Complication, which broke a world record, with its 41 complications helping its owner to track celestial objects. This single-piece edition, subject of 13 patent applications and the result of eight years of development, was already sold. It incorporated five astronomical functions never previously combined in watchmaking. Bulgari's Octo Finissimo Ultra Tourbillon, meanwhile, is also worth mentioning. Continuing to push the boundaries of ultra-thin, it is the worlds' thinnest tourbillon ever with its 1.85-millimeter thickness.
This brilliance might explain why Ben Clymer posted on LinkedIn that Hodinkee's pre-fair posts and contents got 12 million views.
However, most brands remain fixated on the past, leaning heavily on product-centric innovation. In times of uncertainty, nostalgia seems to be the fallback.
The elegance of the gold Jaeger Le Coultre Reverso Tribute Monoface Small Seconds with a Milanese link bracelet.
Stéphane JG Girod
Just look at Jaeger Le Coultre, whose display was, by and large, reinterpretations of the iconic Reverso, a watch invented in the 1930s, in various forms and shapes. At Cartier, the star launch was the 'Tank à Guichets,' originally designed for Duke Ellington in 1928. Hermès Horloger reintroduced its Time Suspended model from 2011, with CEO Laurent Dordet explaining the move as going 'back to the roots.' Even Rolex's first new family in over a decade, the Oyster Perpetual Land Dweller, is a reminiscence of the Oysterquartz of 1977, explained Kristian Haagen, founder of TimeGeeks.
Why conservatism is an issue these days? The larger customer segment is composed of people who own one or two watches. Enticing them to buy more is therefore critical if the industry wants to continue to thrive. Thus, one might need to do more than bringing things they have already seen. Another very large segment is the first timers. At current entry price points, who will buy the 2025 marvels in today's market conditions?
Reassuringly, some brands are starting to do more —and differently to be in tune with the times.
Back during the COVID-19 crisis, I wrote that independent brands were poised to be the next big thing. I continue to think so for three reasons. The latest Deloitte Swiss Watch Industry Insights 2024, also notes that independents, just like the second hand market, are where the buzz is.
First, their watches are rarer, and, by definition, they are closer to what true luxury is. As I wrote late last year big brands have over-stretched: they are too much present, everywhere, all the time, causing potentially saturation and commoditization.
Second, independent break the mold. Take Trilobe, founded in Paris in 2018. It' s radically new watch concept flips tradition, letting the dials turn, as opposed to having the hands turn to indicate seconds, minutes and hours, as conventional watches do. It's not just technologically innovative, it's also elegant and funky. Brands like Gerald Charles, with their Maestro GC39 25th Anniversary, Louis Moinet with their Time to Race model, and Norqain all offer a welcome and refreshing boom of colors. In terms of colors, Hublot, a division of LVMH, also stands out, thanks to its patented mastery of coloured ceramic watches.
The third differentiator for independents is that some are starting to innovate beyond the product itself, creating emotional resonance and added functionality. Cross X Studio, for instance, blends cutting edge mechanics with storytelling and artful packaging. This Swiss brand's collection thrives thanks to its floating tourbillon, which as my AI assistant describes it, is 'a complex, rotating escapement designed to minimize the effects of gravity on a watch's accuracy, that is mounted in a way that it appears to be suspended or floating above the movement, offering a unique perspective on its mechanics.'
More importantly, through collaborations, it has started to design packaging as pieces of art. For example, the Kross Studio's Bat-Signal lamp illuminates, further immersing the collector into the universe of Gotham City and also conceals a dedicated space on his backside to safely store The Batman tourbillon or any other watch. Thinking innovation as an ecosystem, rather than just product, can be something tempting to attract new customers.
Formula 1 was all the craze on the Tag Heuer booth in Geneva.
Stéphane JG Girod
In times of flux and structural change, grounding one's brand in consumers' and distributors' minds clearly and with consistency is crucial, although that should not be an excuse for focusing mostly on heritage-based innovation. Tag Heuer exemplifies this balance under the leadership of new CEO Antoine Pin. Known for its deep ties to motorsport, the brand has sharpened its positioning around performance and competitiveness with its new 'Designed to Win' strategy. Rejoining Formula 1 as its official timekeeper in 2025 is part of this version —but the message is broader: the brand is for those who push limits of high performance, competitiveness and accomplishment, in sports or life. In tougher economic times when one might have to fight harder, this could be smart as it will give a strong purpose to buy its products.
No surprise then that Tag Heuer's booth was focused on F1, including a digitally enhanced F1 driving simulator. The brand's booth was the one that stood out the most; it was also one of the busiest and buzziest.
The Trilobe "Temps Retrouvé" time sculpture is a one of a kind.
Trilobe
Being resilient also means finding new ways to be relevant for consumers who might have an abundant watch collection and might be, , much more difficult to tempt with new ones. Extending time pieces to the world of art clocks could be valuable, even if it is something brands have considered as secondary. Cartier, with its rock crystal table clocks and Jaeger le Coultre with Atmos were pioneers.
At Watches and Wonders this year, two brands stood out. Van Cleef & Arpels and Trilobe. For the former, the Planetarium and the unique piece 'Eveil du Cyclamen' automaton were particularly striking. This treasure of horologery, jewellery and decorative art design is made of rose gold, yellow gold, white gold, emeralds, pink saphire, green aventurine, purple jade, lapis lazuli, diamonds, plique-à-jour enamel , lacquer, ebony, aluminium, steel and leather. The object contains a manual mechanical movement and can be fitted, on demand, with a carillon. In both pieces, different parts move.
Trilobe on the other hand economized on jewels to focus on aesthetics and the movement for its 'Le Temps Retrouvé' sculpture, inspired by a Roman classical bust. The male bust is made of Carrara marble ceramic palladium-plated inside to reflect the movement when the two parts of the bust is open, and the movement is fully on display. The time is shown by opening petals on the two sides. The eyes form a second movement to give the minutes. The third movement is the respiration and only works when the bust is fully closed. This 'breathing mechanism' diffuses the perfume of your choice. In total, Trilobe used 2050 pieces and 3,000 hours of work to produce this piece of contemporary art.
The captivating digital storytelling stand of Cartier mirror the design of the newly-launched "Tank à Guichets".
Stéphane JG Girod
The secondary market is booming. It's composed of three segments: vintage watches that pre-date 1990, neo-vintage (1991- 2004 period) and modern watches starting from 2005. According to the Deloitte study, in 10 years, the pre-owned market could be as big as the primary market thanks to the progress made by parties as regards certification (serviced and warrantied often with a digital passport attached) to build customers' trust.
In tougher economic times, watch brands see the second-hand market as a new business opportunity to satisfy price points they have deserted (most buyers do so for cheaper prices and discounted opportunities), to attract and convert the Gen Z, and even to establish closer relationships with collectors and special customers.
Most of the leading brands have launched their pre-owned certified program. At Watches and Wonders, David Jones - Chief Client & Digital Officer at Vacheron Constantin, explained that another motivation for entering this market was to create a better experience for customers to protect the luxury positioning, which is far from the case with lots of traders and digital platforms.
At Vacheron Constantin, a world within a world (one of the window displays).
Stéphane JG Girod
To celebrate its 270th anniversary, Vacheron Constantin chose to display in its booth a series of their own collection models that were never shown before. The brand has started to buy back a lot of very rare watches to restore and resell them to some of their very close customers, the collectors (something that Zenith also initiated a few years ago). It's a personalized new business for this customer segment.
Different actors occupy the market with different positioning. For example, Sotheby's sells pre-owned watches 'as-is' (i.e. without any kind of certification and repairs). Surprisingly, the auction house is emerging as a new channel by entering the retail space with both its online marketplace and through stores, Josh Pullan, Head of Sotheby's Global Luxury Division explained. The American Bezel, on the other hand, has built its leadership thanks largely to its effort to help the first timer find entry price products and then capture them to sell them much more expensive models.
Citing Chrono24, a world leading watch market, Cartier had the largest neo-vintage revenue share of all brands with 37%, followed by Rolex and Omega (each 19%) and Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet (each at 16%).
Why do consumers buy?
Well behind pricing considerations, consumers are also interested in the immediate availability, on the back of the length of waiting lists, and even the opacity of star product allocations.
In 2025 and 2026, this trend might decelerate, though, with a potentially looming recession that could further depress the demand for luxury watches. Sustainability reasons which have never accounted for much anyway among luxury buyers, has been in steady decline in this study. A lot of the clients buy both primary and secondary (collectors) or 20% are investors so for them, it is the resell opportunity.
Watches & Wonders was reassuringly buzzy and busy. But as the industry is headed for tougher times, it must venture into bolder innovation territories. Luxury has risen to prominence thanks to remorseless future-looking innovation, never by recooking the creations of the past. For consumers who have seen and bought it all, this is the only path to continued relevance.